Well, the hot streak came to a crashing halt with a 1-3 week. That takes me to 9-9 since I started this thing. So it goes. It’s Thanksgiving week. It’s my favorite holiday, which is anchored by my favorite sport. I’ll catch the first half of the first game before we have a big, turkey dinner. Then I’ll curl up on the floor in the basement in front of the television, watch the end of the Titans’ whoopin’ of Detroit. The Cowboys will kickoff against Seattle. I’ll watch the first five minutes and then fall asleep through the end of the first half.

It’s a beautiful thing – and it could only be matched by a four-for-four week on my Thanksgiving Weekend Best Bets (again, using the Caesar’s-Hilton line at Vegas.com).

1. Tennessee (-11) at Detroit – Thanksgiving Day
Inevitably, one of the commentators will talk about what a great fight the Detroit Lions always put up on Thanksgiving, no matter how good or bad the team is. Don’t get fooled. It’s crap. The Lions have lost six of the last seven it has played on my favorite holiday, including last year’s shellacking at the hands of Green Bay – when, believe it or not, the Lions actually entered the game with a 6-4 record. In fact, in the 20 games since the Lions started 6-2 last year, they are 1-19. And margins of defeat during those six Thanksgiving losses during the 2000s have been 11, 17, 20, 32, 8 and 2. This is a historically bad team that has quit written all over it. And they are playing a Tennessee Titans team rededicated to the run (which the Lions can’t stop) angry from coming off of its first loss of the season. Tennessee should cover the 11 points in the first five or 10 minutes and make it a cakewalk from there.

2. Carolina (+3) at Green Bay
Carolina has given up 410 rushing yards and six touchdowns in the last three games. But the Panthers have managed to bend and not break in two of those contests, victories against Detroit and Oakland. Green Bay is better than those two teams, but the Packers also can’t stop the run – a good sign for DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Plus, the Packers’ vaunted pass defense looked hapless against New Orleans Monday night. Jake Delhomme is no Drew Brees, but he’s not going to get them beat either. The Lambeau Field mystique has largely worn off – the Packers are just 3-2 at home this season – and the Panthers need this game to keep pace in the playoff race. Injuries on defense leave me nearly convinced the Packers are about to start a slide. Plus I think the Panthers are just a better team.

3. Kansas City (+3) at Oakland
This game may come back to bite me, but I guess that’s why they call it gambling. The Chiefs defense terrible and the Raiders beat them good the second week of the season. But Kansas City’s offense is coming around. In the last five games since being destroyed by Tennessee, the Chiefs have scored 24, 27, 19, 20 and 31 points. The defense has given up 28, 30, 20, 30 and 54 during that five game stretch. But until last week’s inexplicable offensive explosion against Denver, Oakland had scored 15, 6, 0, 10, 16, 3 and 18 points in its previous seven. That’s 9 points a game. If last week’s game is a sign that the Raiders have started to find themselves this bet will go awry. But one game hardly makes a trend and I’ll take my chances that Larry Johnson’s running and Tyler Thigpen’s passing will allow the Chiefs to sneak out of Oakland with a win.

4. Arizona (+3) at Philadelphia – Thanksgiving night
At first I questioned myself on this pick. The Eagles, while in last place in the NFC East, are still a .500 team. The Cardinals have yet to prove themselves on the road. But the Cardinals offense is playing well while Philadelphia is trending downward. This could be a confidence builder for the Cardinals’ defense if they are able to continue pushing Donovan McNabb toward a permanent spot on the bench. And they can clinch the NFC West with a win. Arizona the underdog? Eh. I don’t think so.

Hmm. Four road teams this week. Well, that’s why they call it gambling.