Last week: 3-1
Overall: 12-10

Except for misjudging how much the Eagles had tanked the season last week went pretty well. Hoping for a duplicate performance this week. Here goes:

1. New England (-4.5) at Seattle
Twice before this week the New England Patriots have gotten crushed and twice New England has rebounded the next week with a convincing win. In week three, Miami took the Pats down a peg, 38-13, at home. The Pats beat the Niners by nine the following week in San Francisco. The next week San Diego played its best game of the season, knocking off the Pats by 20. Belichick’s crew rebounded with a 41-7 win over Denver. Pittsburgh crushed New England on its home turf last week 33-10. New England follows that trend with a double-digit thumping of a Seattle team that is beaten up and out of the race. They easily cover the 4.5 spread and, while I’m not betting on it here, they might take out the 43 point over/under by themselves as well.

2. New England at Seattle: Over 43
On second thought, maybe I will bet on that. Seattle’s defense gave up 34 to Dallas last week and I have little doubt that New England will score into the high 20s, probably into the 30s. The Pats defense hasn’t exactly been stellar either, having given up 33, 28, and 31 in the last three games.

3. San Diego (-9.5) vs Oakland
Everytime it looks like Oakland has figured things out (31-10 win at Denver two weeks ago) they follow it up with a series of clunkers (20-13 loss at home against Kansas City last week). Meanwhile, San Diego is looking for someone to take out their frustrations on. The Raiders will probably be that team. Nnamdi Asomugha can cover basically half the football field against the pass but the Raiders don’t have 10 guys together that are as effective against the run. LaDainian Tomlinson has rushed for 1,815 yards and 18 touchdowns against Oakland during his career and he goes off again tonight against a Raiders team giving up 159 yards a game on the ground. The Chargers aren’t making the playoffs this year but they will erase the sting of a disappointing season with wins in three of their final four games. And it starts here.

4. Indianapolis (-13.5) vs Cincinnati
Until stumbling last week against Cleveland, Peyton Manning and crew looked like they had gotten it together, ripping off 23, 33, 24 and 35 points. They return to the friendly confines of Lucas Oil Stadium for this contest against a Bengals team that has lost badly in two straight contests after showing some competence in a tie against Philadelphia and a win against Jacksonville. This is the Bengals third consecutive game against an AFC playoff contender (the two losses were to Baltimore and Pittsburgh) and I expect the results to be similar. The Colts will carve up the Bengals defense both on the ground and through the air and comfortably cover the 13.5 spread.