And the fun continues.
I was less successful in my picks last weekend than I was during the Wild Card round. I hit two of four straight up and one of four against the spread. Hopefully this week goes a bit better.
Straight-up: Indianapolis over New York Jets
Spread: Colts -8.5
I’ve thoroughly enjoyed watching the Jets this season, especially through the playoff run, and I think if Mark Sanchez continues to develop this team is set to be good for quite awhile. Thomas Jones continues to defy Father Time, seemingly getting stronger by the year, and Shonn Greene appears to be a worthy heir apparent. And that defense – damn. That defense is good.
But I think the run ends this weekend. The Colts have too many weapons on offense even for Darrelle Revis and company. Peyton Manning will find just enough open receivers to frustrate that defense. And while the Colts have been vulnerable to the run in past seasons they did a solid job holding off the Ravens’ rush attack last week. I don’t expect a hugely high scoring game but I think a 23-10-ish kind of game is probable.
With a year of experience under Rex Ryan, however, the Jets will come back in 2010 as one of my pre-season favorites.
Straight-up: New Orleans over Minnesota
Spread: Vikings +3.5
If I were in Vegas I’d have a hard time putting any money on this one. There are too many variables to take into account.
Reggie Bush and Jeremy Shockey have had a tendency to disappear for large chunks of time the last couple seasons. But last week they were on fire early, setting an emotional tone for New Orleans in their demolition of Arizona.
It goes to show just how many weapons Drew Brees has to work with. And in order to defend against Shockey, Bush, Colston, Henderson, Meachem, and company, they’re going to have to be able to rush the quarterback without blitzing – with a beaten up defensive line featuring three of four starters on the injury report.
Minnesota also has a plethora of options to choose from: Rice, Shiancoe, Harvin, et al. Many are projecting a shootout. I don’t necessarily disagree. But I think a really high-scoring affair benefits the Saints for a couple reasons: One, I think the Saints are just slightly more explosive on offense than the Vikings, who are slightly more methodical in their offensive approach. Two, the Superdome is loud and if Brett Favre has to throw the ball around a lot, noise-related communication problems with his receivers are hardly out of the question.
One thing that would help the Vikings dramatically is the ability to run the ball. The Saints have been vulnerable to players like DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, Marion Barber and Tim Hightower in recent weeks. If Adrian Peterson could grind out some yards and help take the crowd away as a factor it could only help.
Both of these teams come in confident following big divisional round wins. This should be really fun to watch. My hunch is that home field helps the Saints pull it out. But really it’s a toss up that will likely be decided by turnovers and breaks.
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Well. I predicted the Colts over Jets 31-14 so I was real close. But I had the Vikings over Saints 32-24 which didn’t come true. I didn’t predict 8 miscues of which 5 were turnovers and that the Saints would only have 1 turnover. Good call on the turnovers Andy. I thought the game would be played much cleaner.
I hate it for the Vikings and their fans because they clearly are the better team. Minnesota gave the game away and that’s always tough. How often does a team have 31-15 first downs, plays 83-55, and gain 200 more yards and lose?? Only when they can’t hold on to the ball which can happen to the best of teams.
Kudos to Brett Favre!!!! I know it sounds strange after 18 years of playing QB but he grew in my eyes a lot after this year. Today he show tremendous guts versus the Saints. Remarkable. He showed up big time!! And A.D. better quit fumbling or he’ll never reach his potential for greatness.
Tony,
Those are two evenly matched teams. Vikes were better today in a lot of ways. But turnovers, especially in the Red Zone, are killers in games like this. Same thing happened to Dallas last week.
Adrian Peterson does need to cut his fumbles. But look at guys like Franco Harris and Eric Dickerson – they fumbled a lot too. Doesn’t mean Peterson shouldn’t work on it – he should. But I’ll trade a half dozen fumbles a season for 1400 yards rushing and 18 touchdowns. … as long as the fumbles don’t come in the Championship Game.
So it goes.
Not a disappoionted for the Jets. They made the playoffs and made a run. Bright future.
I agree, Brad. As long as Sanchez develops the Jets are set up for a several year run.