I continue to wish I’d spent the last six weeks in Las Vegas, having nailed another 4-0 week and running my totals for the last month and a half to 19-5. That could turn at any time of course, and probably will, but the run has upped my season record to 32-27-1.
Tony only hit two of his four bets last week but he nailed his upset of the week, calling Indy’s first win of the season with a +245 payoff. He’s going out on an even bigger limb with his upset pick this week.
The 2-2 mark puts him at 28-32 for the season.
All in all it would have been a good weekend for both of us to be watching games from a sports book in Sin City. It feels to me like the lines on week 16 games are a little bit tougher, but we’ll make another run at it. Here goes:
Houston (-6) at Indianapolis — We know the balance of power in the AFC South has shifted to Houston this season. Indianapolis got a win, narrowly avoiding the ugly fate of going winless. But they are still a bad team. And Houston needs to rebound from a clunker at home last weekend against Carolina. The line opened up at 7.5 and I’m not sure I would have taken the Texans to beat that spread. But when it shifted to 6 it became a pretty good spread, as even when the Colts had kept games relatively close, they’d still lost by a touchdown or more in eight straight before taking out Tennessee last week.
St. Louis at Pittsburgh: Under 37 — St. Louis has been terrible. In the last five games, the Rams have been held to 13 points or fewer four times, including one shutout at the hands of San Francisco. Perhaps more surprisingly, Pittsburgh has not scored more than 14 points in three of its last four games. The Steelers will win this game, but also likely will try to give Ben Roethlisberger an opportunity to rest his ailing ankle by relying more on the run than they have most of the season. It’ll be a lower scoring game than people might think.
Atlanta at New Orleans: Over 53 — New Orleans is a completely different team at home, having put up 31, 49, 27, 62, 40 and 30 in its six home games this season. Atlanta, however, has been very comfortable on the road in recent weeks, winning four of its last five away from the Georgia Dome and scoring 30 or more in three of those wins. My brother would look at this game and call it a classic “do the opposite of what you’d expect” kind of bet. But both teams have a lot to play for and I would expect both offenses to be primed for big performances. This could be a track meet.
Upset of the week: Seattle (+2.5, +120) vs San Francisco — Seattle has won five of six and has scored 30 points or more in three straight games. They’ve reached .500 and have slim playoff hopes as they close the home portion of their schedule. San Francisco is coming off a tough Monday night win against Pittsburgh. I think the Seahawks have a shot to pull yet another upset.
NY Jets (-3) vs NY Giants – The Giants have only been consistent in coming up short when they need it most this year. Talent wise I think they should beat the Jets. Mental mistakes will cost them the playoffs, though.
Chicago (+13) at Green Bay – I think Chicago’s defense is a step up from the Chiefs, who gave the Bears a blueprint to work with. The Packers offensive line is suffering through multiple injuries (again), which will wear on them, and losing Greg Jennings hurt worse than anyone expected, as the rest of the receivers continued to suffer the dropsies. I don’t expect the Bears to win (or I would make them my upset of the week), but in this rivalry game it should be closer than two TDs.
Detroit vs San Diego: over 52 – Do I bet the opposite of what I think will happen, or opposite of what should happen? A huge part of me wants to take the under–San Diego on the road, Norv Turner, Lions run game. So logically I’ll take the over.
Upset of the week: St. Louis (+15.5, +975) at Pittsburgh – Go big or go home. Assuming Big Ben is still hurt.