This could be turning into a pretty good year for big-name retirements. There’s Jason Taylor for sure. Seems LaDainian Tomlinson is considering hanging it up. And if reports from around the Interwebs are true, Steelers wideout Hines Ward is about to say goodbye to the NFL, as well. (EDIT: Or perhaps not …)
Taylor and Tomlinson would seem to be sure thing inductees into the Pro Football Hall of Fame at this point. But Ward is an interesting case. He’s close — right on the borderline either way. His numbers were very, very good, but was he that good? Or did he benefit from playing in the NFL as the game — and the long-time run-heavy Steelers — transitioned more and more toward the pass?
You can find many of the arguments and much of the discussion on Ward here at a post we did on Ward a couple years ago. The folks over at Behind The Steel Curtain also made a pretty good case for his ultimately deserving enshrinement in this post here, which also is a couple years old.
If Ward does call it a career, he closes with 1,000 catches for 12,083 yards and 85 receiving touchdowns (he added another rushing TD), which according to profootballreference.com puts him at eighth, 18th and 13th all-time (the 86 total touchdowns puts him 39th there).
Ward was the MVP of the 2005 Super Bowl win and he was selected to four Pro Bowls, which is a somewhat middle-of-the-road number. He also never made the Associated Press First-Team All-Pro list, though he was named to the second team three times. And he did make first-team on the Pro Football Weekly team once.
As the Behind The Steel Curtain post points out, Ward was a devastating blocker and a great team leader, intangibles that can only help and not hurt his efforts to make the Hall of Fame.
I honestly don’t have a clue whether voters will see fit to enshrine Ward or not. If I’m a Steelers fan, I’m hoping at least a couple of Tim Brown, Cris Carter and Andre Reed get in soon, or Ward runs the risk of getting caught up in that wash.
Don’t forget also that neither Randy Moss nor Terrell Owens played this year. They reportedly weren’t the great leaders and teammates Ward has been in Pittsburgh, but their numbers eclipse those put up by the Steeler great. And if they stay out of the game, they’d be eligible a year earlier than Ward — and from what I’ve read, few expect them to go in on the first ballot, despite their individual accomplishments.
All this leaves Ward right on the borderline, in my opinion. I certainly wouldn’t be offended if he was elected, but there are other people not currently in the Hall whose cases I think are stronger. What are your thoughts?
Loading ...
Marvin Harrison, Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt will also be fighting for WR places in Canton in the next few years. I can see this turning into a long-term Lynn Swann/Art Monk campaign by loyal fans to get Ward elected.
That’s a good point.
I saw a story somewhere indicating Derrick Mason was retiring too. I don’t think Mason is a Hall of Fame caliber WR. But his numbers were 943-12061-66 – less than Ward’s in catches and touchdowns but more in yards. He had only two pro bowls but had an AP first-team All Pro award in 2000. I had not realized those two were as similar in stats as they are.
As passing numbers start to explode off the charts over the next few years, I wonder if people aren’t going to start associating Ward more with Mason-type players than with Moss, Owens, Carter, Reed, Brown, etc.
Ward doesn’t seem to have remotely a Hall of Fame resume. But it’s the Hall of Fame, not the Hall of Great, and Ward has that much.
Ward has 2 SBs including a Superbowl MVP – which none of the current WRs on the finalist list or any of the near future candidates with 900+ receptions have. How can anyone not consider him a strong HOF candidate? Sure as with many current and future WR candidates it may take several elections, but I have no doubt that he will make the HOF. In fact I would put his chances ahead of Owens, Bruce, and Holt. Over the next several elections the number of WRs eligible is going to be impressive: 8-9, that is why Reed or Carter need to get in this year and others in 2013 and 2014 or the backup is going to be huge (same is on the near horizon for OL).
Hines Ward is going to be an interesting candidate. His chances are really going to depend on how voters weight his intangibles (like blocking ability) and his Super Bowl MVP award, because to me those are his only two things that give him any advantage. His playoff stats are also solid, so that might also help.
I’d personally put him behind Moss, Owens, Bruce, Holt and Harrison from his era despite his 2 Super Bowl Wins. The reason being is that he lacks two important things from his resume (aside from his obvious lack of Pro Bowls/All Pros): a signature, dominant year (which all 5 other candidates have), and the fact that he was never even remotely the focal point of his team’s offense.
His counting stats are great, but they don’t really standout among the other 5 candidates and his averages (12.1 yards per catch, 55.7 yards per game) are much worse than the others, though obviously he played his whole career on a running team.
His postseason numbers and merits bring him into the conversation, but I don’t think that they bring him over and above any of the 5 guys I listed above. I think he’ll have to wait at least 10 years to get in, and is more likely to get in as a senior’s candidate.
In can guarantee you that if Ward, Moss and Owens all stay retired and thus appear on the ballot for 2016 that some voters will select Ward over Owens and perhaps even Moss, Ward having 2 SBs and a SB MVP will carry weight with those voters, strong playoff success often makes the difference when the status are so close. There is no way that Ward would be eligible for a modern candidate for 20 years and not get elected. It may take several years and time to sort out the 7-8 current and upcoming WR candidates, but Ward will be in by 2020 or so. As to Moss and Owens look how hard it has been for Carter to get elected with 2nd all time receptions and Moss and Owens carry huge issues voters will not ignore. Harrison (2014), Bruce (2015) and Holt (2015) are going to be in for a great fight that is only going to get harder by 2016. And between 2012 and 2014 the 3 current WRs on the ballot need to get sorted out. Also with the WRs there are no likely candidates retiring in the next several years, so it will be some time for the current young crop enter into the debate. 2012-2021 will be the HOF era for WRs (and OL!).
just imagine in 2015 the semi-finalist could include WRs: Harrison, Bruce and Holt
and by 2016 the list could include as many WRs as: Harrison, Bruce, Holt, Moss, Owens, Ward !!
and that does not include Reed, Carter and Brown if any of those are not elected in 2012-2014
and of course that does not include all the other positions, and the serious logjam that will soon emerge at OL (ALL members of decade teams:
2013 Roaf and/or Shields
2014 Allen, Ogden
2015 Walter Jones, Orlando Pace
And it is amazing the lack of other strong new Offensive players eligible from 2013 to 2016 with just RB James and QBs Farve and Warner, and could remain weak for a few years after that unless LT and Manning retire in 2012 or 2013.
sorry under OL 2013 should read: Roaf and/or Shield (if not elected in 2012), plus Allen and Ogden, so 3-4 OL in 2013 and total of 3-4 OL by 2015. I am thinking it may sort out like this:
2012 Roaf
2013 Shields
2014 Allen
2015 Odgen
2016 none
2017 (or later) Pace
2018 (or later) Jones
(but the order could just as easily move around from 2014-2018)
Paul, I don’t disagree with you on Ward. I think that he’s got some good credentials that will help with voters, but I think that the WR backlog is part of the reason I think he’s in for a long wait. The Hall of Fame has been brutally tough to receivers, so I think he’ll at least need to wait until Reed, Brown and Carter get in, plus a couple of receivers from his era. Hopefully they’ll get in sometime over the next 2-3 classes.
There really isn’t a good comparable receiver in the hall of fame to Ward now, as the majority of the inductees either made a ton of Pro Bowls/All-Pros or had top-notch counting stats (as in, they retired in the top 5 in receptions/receiving yards). if Carter, Reed and/or Brown spill into the next group of receivers, it will cause some problems. Moss, Owens and Harrison were better receivers than Ward for his entire career, but all have character concerns that might keep them waiting and would further cause a logjam. I could see Ward’s playoff success putting him in over Holt or Bruce, but not the first three. Owens, Moss and Harrison have Ward comfortably beaten in too many credentials in my opinion.
The good thing, as you pointed out, is that after Ward, there will likely be a good few years before another legitimate WR candidate becomes eligible, so that may work in his favour. The problem with Ward is that he may belong in, but it’ll really depend on who else is eligible at the same time. Personally, I wouldn’t put him ahead of any of the 13 players that are finalists right now, or a number of players that have retired since 2006. I think it might take a “well he’s been on the ballot a long time”-type bump before he gets a chance. Similar to someone like Art Monk.
Ward will be eligible 2017 if he retires.
And you can add Dawson this year with Roaf/Shields. Ogden and Allen are 2013. Kevin Mawae is 2015 with Jones and Pace, then Alan Faneca in 2016. Steve Hutchinson may retire too so you are looking at 2017/18 for him. Even the DL is getting crowded with Doleman/Haley/Kennedy this year with Kev Greene as a pass rushing OLB – with Strahan and Sapp added in 2013. Jason Taylor is 2017.
Every class for the next 6 years could have a WR/OL/DL trio.
There will be 35 modern era candidates elected between 2012-18. These 46 names will all be in contention. Some slam dunks, others borderline with a few longshots.
QB: Warner, Favre (P.Manning too if he retires)
RB: Martin/Bettis, Edge, Tomlinson
WR: Reed/Brown/Carter, Harrison/Holt/Bruce, Moss/Owens, Ward
TE: Gonzalez
OL: Roaf/Dawson/Shields, Ogden, Allen, Jones, Pace, Mawae, Faneca, Hutchinson
DL: Doleman/Haley/Kennedy, Strahan/Sapp, Taylor
LB: Greene, D.Brooks, Z.Thomas, Seau, Ray Lewis
DB: Williams/Dawkins/Law/Lynch/Sharper
K: M.Andersen
Coach: Parcells, Dungy (assuming Cowher returns eventually)
The defensive backs will struggle among that lot until Bailey/Woodson/Reed/Polamalu.
Obviously David Akers’ 2012 season was very good. Of course he is not a Hall of Famer by any means now, but he does have years left and can put up good numbers. Making 44 field goals, including making 7-9 from 50+, in a season is very impressive. He has had 309 points in the last two seasons, 592 points in the last 4 seasons and 802 in the last 6 seasons. He is a 6x pro bowler, 2x First Team AP(4x 2nd team AP), and is a member of the 2000’s All Decade Team.
As for Hines making it , he should. I think Terrell Owens, Randy Moss, and possibly Torry Holt deserve to get before. But, after them, he should,as well as Issac Bruce. Brian Dawkins should make it. He is better than John Lynch and Darren Sharper, especially Brian’s prime. Brian would go beast mode on the offense and just cause havoc.
I agree that the path for Ward is not going to be an easy one, I just opposed the view that he would never get elected as a modern candidate. With that many WRs coming up on the ballot in the next few years there will be significant delays in getting most of them elected and that includes Owens, Moss, Holt, Bruce and Ward. Look at the issues with Carter and tell me that even Owens and Moss are not going to have problems getting elected.
At some point (just like now with Reed, Carter and Brown) 3 to 5 WRs could be on the semi finalist list and split votes as the voters try and sort out the order. I maintain that if that involves Owens, Holt, Bruce and Ward, Ward has as much chance for election as the other three do and perhaps better in many cases with the 2SBs and SB MVP which I think will make the difference in the mind of some voters. I also think that by 2012-2014 we will see the selection of the current WRs on the ballot starting with Reed this year and then Carter, although I suspect the path for Brown may not be as immediate and if not elected by 2015 he will fall into a group of 4 WRs (Brown, Harrison, Holt and Bruce). Yes over the next 6-10 elections we will see a wave of WR, OL and DL get elected.
Of this list of 46 current and future candidates presented by boknows, I would say the majority will get elected but it may take more then the next seven elections, as some names (along with other futures) will carry over for several more elections beyond 2018. Of course this is also assuming that the HOF does not change the rules for maximum elected or the distribution of modern players, coaches, contributors and seniors.
Another interesting aside is the lack of strong QB candidates recently and until the current crop retires (Manning, Brady etc..) with only two likely candidates (Farve, Warner) to be considered over the next several years. And the path for Warner is going to be one of the more interesting stories to follow as the debate over his selection will be long one I suspect.
Once Martin and Bettis are elected the same weak class will occur for RBs with E James the only one on the near horizon and I do not his election will be an easy one, of course if LT is truly now retired he would be a first ballot selection in 2017.
Paul ,bringing up your point on the lack of great QBs of “today”. Obviously Brett Favre, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Kurt Warner, are/were very very good, but it seems as though Donovan McNabb gets left out because he doesn’t have a ring. But whenever the name Donovan McNabb comes up, i think of not many turnovers. And that might sounds strange, but a QB who doesn’t turn the ball over and puts up above average stats(Passing TD’s, yards,etc), they should be considered. And he is also a 6x Pro Bowler. He has a long shot though. But remember, he is the first player to throw for more than 30 TDs and less than 10 ints in the same season. Yes that is one season ,but that is very impressive.
The future “Wide Receiver Race” will be very interesting to say the least.
Personally I am not a huge fan of McNabb as the career numbers and post season awards and success are weaker than others from his playing career. If McNabb is done he will appear on the ballot a few (or several?) years before Brady, Brees, P Manning and Ben Roethlisberger, but once they appear he will have no chance as all of whom have better qualifications for election. I am not so sure that the decade of the 2000s has room for more than those 4 and if so E Manning, Rivers (depending how their careers go) could be better case. McNabb will certainly get his day of consideration, I just find him a borderline case for selection.
I am a fan of McNabb, but yes, I don’t see him getting in on the first 10 ballots or so, maybe not until the senior nominee. At least one wide receiver better and should make it this year. I am not sure who though between Cris Carter, Tim Brown ,and Andre Reed.
Reed was the only one of those WR to reach the final ten last year, which would an indication that he is the closest in terms of voter support.
Richard Seymour is becoming more and more of a Hall of Famer. I am more convinced now than before. He makes the Pro Bowl next year,he would be a 8x Pro Bowler.
Eli Manning is two wins away from becoming a very serious candidate.
He is and Tom Brady is 2 wins away from being top 3 QB of all time.