Well, here it is, folks. It’s Super Bowl week. Depending on how you look at it, this week is either the ultimate finale to the football season … or the beginning of a depressing several-month stretch during which there will be no football on television (though that actually started this weekend, unless you count the glorified touch football game that is the Pro Bowl).

Before we get to our Super Bowl predictions, here’s a quick recap of our picks for the season.

I won the regular season competition with my brother, hitting a fairly solid 172-84 mark, three games ahead of Tony.

Those results have flip-flopped in the playoffs. I have been terrible, missing both Championship Weekend games and dropping to 3-7. Tony hit both of those games, moving his mark to 7-3. This has been an ugly turn of events.

And I’m not sure I have a real good read on the Super Bowl either, but we’ll give it a go anyway.

Andy:

New England vs New York Giants:

People have been calling this a rematch of the 2008 Super Bowl, but other than the jerseys, that’s really not the case. There are only something like 22 players remaining from the teams that met the evening New York thwarted New England’s efforts to go 18-0 (which also thwarted my efforts to cash in on a preseason bet I made in Las Vegas that New England would win the Super Bowl).

Just 24 players in total remain on the rosters from that game.

But the head coaches and the basic philosophies are still largely the same. The Patriots will try to throw the ball all over the place. The Giants also will wing the ball around while trying on defense to counteract the passing game with a rotating set of defensive linemen bringing a ferocious pass rush.

It’ll be fun to again watch two of the game’s best coaches, Bill Belichick and Tom Coughlin, match wits.

Where in 2008 the Patriots came in the heavy favorite, this year the Giants seem to be the popular pick, despite a point spread favoring New England. New England’s defense has been a sieve, particularly in the pass game. So Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz could be up for big games.

The Giants still have the heavy rushers that caused Tom Brady problems in the 2008 game, but New England has a different collection of weapons in Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski this time around.

I think the loss that ended New England’s perfect season has stuck in Belichick’s craw for nearly four years. And I think he is going to come out with some kind of wrinkle that will turn the game the way of the Patriots. This wasn’t the Super Bowl matchup I expected when the playoffs started and it wasn’t the game I was hoping for when the Championship games kicked off a week-and-change ago. But I do think the chess match between Belichick and Coughlin will make this a game worth tuning in to see.

Winner: New England

Tony:

New England vs New York Giants:

In 2008, following a perfect 16-0 regular season, the underdog New York Giants provided not only the blueprint for how teams could beat the New England Patriots, but how four years later they would knock the odds-on-favorite Green Bay Packers out of the playoffs in the divisional round.

The keys:

  • Generate a pass rush with four down linemen, allowing for seven in coverage- Take the deep threat out of the game (as much as possible) by being aggressive with Randy Moss off the line of scrimmage.
  • Limit YAC on underneath passes to Wes Welker with sure tackling.
  • Limit the rushing attack.
  • Force the run, even if it is not 100 percent effective, to take time off the clock and limit scoring chances.

The Giants have continued to use this formula well in 2011, and will presumably try to utilize it again on Sunday.

However, I think Bill Belichick has been scheming for this matchup – not specifically the Giants, but someone who would use this formula since the loss in 2008. Specifically, getting rid of Randy Moss and adding two talented tight ends (in the same draft), and adding a first round offensive tackle and two early round running backs in this season’s draft.

Instead of relying heavily on the vertical passing threat of Moss, the Patriots can utilize Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez in multiple ways – screens, short to intermediate passes, deeper threats when need be, and in the case of Hernandez, even in the running game, in recent weeks.  With Welker still in the mix, that provides three serious threats that the Giants have to cover, rather than just two–and the Giants have struggled mightily against top tier TE this season. They also have a better 4th option this year (Deion Branch), and assuming he is active, I wouldn’t overlook Chad Ochocinco as a vertical threat–he didn’t play much or well during the season, but it would be just like Bill Belichick to break out an unexpected weapon in the Super Bowl.

At the end of the day, I just don’t think that the Giants have enough on defense to match their 2008 feat–I do think it will be a decent game, but I’m picking the Patriots to prevail.

Winner: New England

*** As a side prediction: I don’t have any insider knowledge into this, but I wouldn’t be totally surprised if this was Bill Belichick’s last game as head coach of the Patriots, especially if they win.  Between actually allowing NFL Network unprecedented access to a season of football with him last year, to probably realizing that core players like Tom Brady are starting to show some signs of age and his defense being held together with smoke and mirrors, I could see him hanging it up and riding into the sunset.