The Pro Football Hall of Fame’s 50th class will include modern-era candidates Dermontti Dawson, Chris Doleman, Cortez Kennedy, Curtis Martin and Willie Roaf.
Joining them at the Aug. 4 induction ceremony will be senior Jack Butler, a senior nominee.
The Steelers fared particularly well, with Dawson and Butler entering the Hall. Dawson played center for Pittsburgh from 1988 to 2000. Butler was a four-time Pro Bowl defensive back for them from 1951 to 1959.
Doleman was an eight-time Pro Bowl defensive end for Minnesota, San Francisco and Atlanta from 1985 to 1999. Kennedy spent his entire 11-year career with Seattle. He made eight Pro Bowls during that span.
Five-time Pro Bowler Martin played split his 11-year between New England and the New York Jets. He ran for 14,101 yards and reached the 1,000 yard mark during his first 10 years in the league. And Roaf was a dominant left tackle for New Orleans and Kansas City during a 13-year career that included 11 Pro Bowls.
The new class was selected by a 44-person selection committee Saturday afternoon in Indianapolis. The group was announced this evening on the NFL Network’s Road to Canton show.
Other finalists included Cris Carter, Charles Haley, Andre Reed, Aeneas Williams, Bill Parcells, Tim Brown, Jerome Bettis, Kevin Greene, Will Shields, former San Francisco 49ers owner Edward DeBartolo Jr. and Dick Stanfel, a second senior nominee.
The new class helps reduce an abundance of offensive linemen that will only get deeper starting next year when Larry Allen and Jonathan Ogden become eligible.
Perhaps surprising is that the class does not reduce the long list of wide receivers attempting to gain entry to the Hall. Carter, Brown and Reed will soon face additional competition from other star wideouts, such as Marvin Harrison, Terrell Owens and Randy Moss become eligible in years ahead.
The committee’s decision to not enshrine Haley and Parcells this year was mentioned by some analysts as surprising.
The selection committee had narrowed the field to 15 modern era finalists in January. Before that they had reduced the list to 26 from an original group of 105 preliminary nominees.
Stanfel and Butler were nominated in August 2011. Senior nominees are selected by a special committee that reviews the qualifications of players whose careers ended more than 25 years ago. Unlike the modern-era candidates, who are discussed and winnowed throughout the process, senior nominees move directly to the finalist vote.
We predicted in November that Reed, Roaf, Dawson, Martin and Parcells would get in from the modern-era nominees. Several readers posted their guesses today.
Last year’s inductees were Richard Dent, Marshall Faulk, Chris Hanburger, Deion Sanders, Shannon Sharpe, Les Richter and Ed Sabol, the man who started NFL Films.
Loading ...
Well having followed these elections for many years the results are always surprising
I’m starting to wonder if we’re seeing the start of a movement to put Carter in first. Perhaps some of the voters will start to think there’s no way they can convince enough Brown and Carter loyalists to put Reed in first, even with the undeniable argument that they need to focus all their support to one candidate for any of them to get in, and will switch their support to Carter in hopes they can have more success there. You have to start wondering if one of these guys will end up having to wait for the senior committee.
For the record my picks were Martin, Reed, Dawson, Kennedy and Haley as the modern-era selections.
I’m not surprised by the 2 DL going in. I just thought it would be Haley as the second choice. I was surprised by there not being any WRs elected.
Ok, for next year my guess is
Sapp, Strahan, Bettis, Reed and Parcells though at this point I fell like choosing Reed is just wishful thinking.
Ken Anderson belongs in Canton and I will boycott everything about the HOF untill he is enshrined
I don’t understand how Dawson got in and not Haley, Bettis, or Parcells. As Paul stated above there are always surprises.
Dr Phil: I would swap Sapp for an offensive lineman – they always pick one. Jonathan Ogden and Larry Allen become first-year eligible next year; both made NFL Network’s “100 Greatest Players” two years ago. Ogden went higher (#72 v. #95), so I’m favoring him. I know a lot of people here have Allen in higher regard; next year is when we’ll probably see if that list was in any way reflective of the thinking of the people who are the voters.
The rest is kind of jumbled, and since Bettis didn’t make the final ten this year, there’s a chance he won’t get in next year. Given the lack of other players at his position, he probably will – Aeneas Williams’ jump from non-finalist to final 10 seems anomalous to me – but between Bettis, Williams, Charles Haley, and the WRs, there’s a bit of a backlog of players who didn’t get in this year, especially if the voters still like both Strahan and Sapp as first-ballot guys. Haley may be out of luck for a year or two as Strahan and Sapp come in; what may help Williams’ case next year is that we could be looking at only one defensive player otherwise (if the voters decide Strahan, Sapp, and Haley all played too similar positions), though if Parcells gets selected that may be defensible.
Ogden, Allen, Strahan, Carter and Bill Parcells would be my 5 modern era selections for next year. Sapp and Bucs teammate Derrick Brooks can go in together in 2014.
Morgan: Thanks for the response. I didn’t choose an offensive lineman because I’m not yet sure that they’d choose Ogden or Allen in their first-year and I don’t think Shields gets in before either of those two. That’s just my thinking at the moment. It’s true Bettis wasn’t in the final ten, but I am banking on him being chosen because of a lack of competition at his position. I think Haley will have to wait for Sapp and Strahan because he didn’t get the nod over Doleman this year. Peter King’s comments about making sure enough defensive players get in is quite telling, but this year shows that the voters don’t have a problem with having two defensive linemen going in which I think helps Sapp and Strahan.
These are my thoughts at the moment, but we’re another year away and they could change a lot in that time.
I’m actually fine with Dawson ahead of Bettis. Bettis is suffering from the same logjam at RB that the three WRs are dealing with. He’ll get in within the next year or two. Dawson has deserved it for awhile now. Haley I agree with. I think you could argue him ahead of either Doleman or Kennedy — not that those two don’t deserve it, but Haley, I think, deserves it more.
Yes, next year’s class is going to be really strong. Haven’t looked at it all on paper yet, but not sure any of the WR make it next year because of all the first year guys.
Carter should have been in on the first ballot. He’s second all time in catches and touchdowns. Not only that, but stats aside, he also had the best hands and made the most spectacular catches I have ever seen. There are many lesser WRs who are already in and it just shows why voting should not be left up to such a few, mostly big city voters.
Cris Carter #4 all time receiver not in yet…. sham!!!!
In order for the HOF committee to be fair, I feel that they should induct a player from each position. A Lineman, Reciever, Running Back, Defensive Linemen, Defensive Back. I think that is the order they should choose.
Les, interesting idea, but what about quarterback? Do tight ends and receivers count as one or are tight ends blockers with the linemen? And what about special teamers? I’m not sure that’s going to work. I don’t think there is necessarily a sham going on, w/ regard to Carter or any specific player or players. There was some talk on twitter from voters that they think the WRs might be canceling each other out. I believe it. Look at the post we did at: https://www.zoneblitz.com/2012/01/28/comparing-hall-famers-brown-carter-reed/
It’s not a large sample size, but as of the last I checked, there were 16 votes on the poll, 7 for Carter, 5 for Brown and 4 for Reed. If you extrapolate that out to the HOF voters, that’s going to amount to none of the three getting in. And I believe there are legit arguments for each of the three — so I don’t think the HOF voters are in any way involved in some sort of sham. They’ve just got a really, really hard job getting to a result. And sometimes that is going to mean that there are full classes inducted with a couple of the most qualified guys left on the outside looking in for a few years.
And by the way Wade, I don’t disagree with your statement that Carter should have been in on the first ballot. I was shocked when he didn’t get in his first year and I’m even more shocked now, however many years later.
There is no sham regards the WRs. The voters are clearly split on who is more deserving and thus are cancelling each other out. Carter and Reed made the Last 10 and we’ll never know how close they were to making the Last 5 because the HOF don’t release the voting results. If the 44 voters are split 50/50 on Reed/Carter when they are asked to name their Final 5 it may well leave both of them finishing in 6th and 7th and therefore missing out. And remember its only the 5 modern era finalists that face the Yes or No vote with 80% Yes votes required for election.
”The situation at receiver remains a mess and it’s not going to get easier with Harrison becoming eligible in a couple years. Voters are having a tough time deciding between Cris Carter and Andre Reed. Both made the final 10 this year. Reed made the final 10 last year as well. Having both crack the final 10 this year made it harder for one of them to break through” – Mike Sando
RT @duvalfan: Sticking point for Carter not getting in? … Seems a disagreement over which of the two–Carter, Reed–is most deserving. – Peter King
RT @mckdaddy1: Perplexed a little PK … I am too. But there are 44 in the room. I am 1. It’s a democracy. All 6 who made it very deserving. – Peter King
Carter, Reed and Brown were all deserving of admittance, but they likely canceled each other out because voters had different opinions on who was better. – Jim Trotter (who said he voted for Carter and Haley to reach the Last 5)
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/jim_trotter/02/04/hall.of.fame/index.html
Trotter makes a good point that if a WR was elected this year there still would then be a backlog of deserving OL or DL over the next few years, either way someone is not getting in for a few years. Although I am not sure that the classes of 2013 and 2014 are that strong with clear 1st time players being elected. For example in 2013 yes there will be Strahan, Sapp, Allen and Odgen but HOF voters have not shown great interest in electing DL and OL as 1st time players. Strahan may get in next year but I doubt the other 3 will which still leaves room for 3-4 who did not get elected this year like Reed, Haley, Shields and Parcells. 2014 is even weaker as I doubt anyone from that year, including Harrison is a deserving 1st year selection. Bottom line is there are the 2013 and 2014 elections to get several of the final 15 not elected this year into the HOF. Eventually the voters will have to sort out the WRs and elect one of them, perhaps the continued backlash will push them to select one in 2013.
As to Carter as a first time selection I strongly disagree, the way WRs are putting up numbers in this era the 900 and even 1000 receptions clearly is not as impressive as it once was. Voters knew Rice was to soon follow on the ballot and he would be a 1st time selection, then Carter fell into a mix with Reed and Brown. Yes I agree Carter should have been selected by now but I can understand the case against him and the difficulty many voters would have separating the three WR.
“I don’t understand how Dawson got in and not Haley, Bettis, or Parcells”
Dawson is a 6/7, team of 90s player and has been a finalist for four years, a well deserved selection.
Haley is a 2/5, five SB player with a shorter career sacks and awards then Doleman
Bettis is a 3/6 player, and Parcells is a 2SB coach on the ballot for the first time.
Haley, Bettis and Parcells will all get in sometime in the next few years, but these elections are always about the numbers with only 5 players selected each year.
In my opinion, unless you are one of the greatest players of all time (top five at your position or top from your era) you are not deserving of first time election over other just as deserving players already on the ballot. You have to wait your turn. There is no clear argument that Haley, Bettis or Parcells are in the top 5 all time or best from your era and that much more deserving then Dawson.
With Eli on the verge of his 2nd super bowl win, sports world is all about him and the Hall. Ben Roethlisberger, same 2004 NFL draft, already has 2 rings, more postseason wins, regular season wins, and a 10 point higher passer rating. 10 points is a sizable gap. Both have great cases, but we forget Ben has two rings and has as great of a case.
Glad to see Chris Doleman in. Him and Curtis two Pittsburgh Panthers. Than Darrelle Revis and Larry Fitzgerald. Besides Charles Woodson, it is hard to name a better corner for the Hall in the last 4 seasons other than Revis. Last 3 seasons, he(Island) was no doubt the best corner in the NFL.
My thoughts, echoed over at the pfraforum’s website:
With one significant exception, this is a very good class.
All the modern-era players are very deserving. It would really have been smart to get a WR voted in, but I can’t see any Fred Dean/Richard Dent level mistakes here. In fact, this follows a common pattern for recent HoF regular candidate votes — add in the first-time no-brainers (there were none this year), elect many of the remaining players who made the cut-down to 10 but not to 5 last time (Dermontti Dawson, William Roaf, Cortez Kennedy, Curtis Martin), and bet a surprise happens (I had thought Kevin Greene might qualify, but it turned out to be a similar player in Chris Doleman).
Very glad to see Jack Butler get voted in also — again, most deserving.
The big exception I can see here is Dick Stanfel not being elected. I think there’s no question he was deserving, and as far as I’m concerned he now joins Claude Humphrey as one of the major recent “shame on you” mistakes being made regarding Seniors. This time (and to a reasonable extent last year), the Senior Committee did its job — it was the general voting panel that dropped the ball. I’m becoming more convinced that the current writer’s panel simply isn’t up to the Seniors task and should be replaced by a panel of knowledgeable historians who examine, nominate, and vote players in directly.
Not sure what the issue is with Stanfel but this is the second time he was nominated as a senior candidate and not elected (and the panel of HOF voters was different first time around), perhaps it was the short career?? But I tend to agree that since the Seniors Selection Committee has already reduced the number of candidates down to the final 2, perhaps that should be the only vote those players are subject to? As it is the seniors are not discussed or voted with the modern candidates through the elimination from 15 to 10 to 5. Why subject them to the same final 80% required vote when none of the voters have ever seen these seniors play?
Paul, here’s something I posted over at pro-football-reference’s blog last year on Stanfel:
Re Dick Stanfel: he has had only one chance thus far as a Senior and none as a regular candidate. He was likely turned down previously from what I’ve read for an unusual reason — because of the way the HoF player advisor that year, Bob St. Clair, handled his nomination. St. Clair is apparently an eccentric fellow to begin with, was a college teammate of Stanfel’s and likely did not disclose that relationship to the committee, and was apparently very aggressive with the committee members about Stanfel’s HoF worth. Chances are this rubbed enough HoF voters the wrong way at the time. There’s some allusion to the issue in this article by HoF committee member Paul Zimmerman:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/inside_game/dr_z/news/2003/08/01/insider/
I definitely think Stanfel should be in the HoF, for a number of reasons. There is only one guard from the 50s in the HoF (Stan Jones), which is far too thin representation at the position from that time. And Stanfel’s postseason honors profile is among the best for guards from that time: 1st team all pro 5 times, pro bowler 5 times, and member of the 50s all-decade team. Only Duane Putnam and Dick Barwegan approach this. Stanfel’s career is indeed a little short at 7 seasons, but he didn’t even start his NFL career until age 25, and like many players from this time and earlier decided to quit and take a better paying job. Short careers of this type were common in the NFL then, and several such players are in the HoF, many deservedly so.
I also found out why Stanfel’s NFL career didn’t start until age 25. According to this article:
http://www.profootballresearchers.org/Coffin_Corner/16-02-563.pdf
Stanfel spend a couple years in military service between high school and college — and then after graduating, he tore up a knee and sat out a year healing it up after having two surgeries. He indeed retired early, in order to take an assistant coaching job that probably paid more money and certainly would have had the prospect of a continuing career for a 31 year old o-lineman. The author, Bob Carroll, was an astute football scholar and according to this 1994 article thought Stanfel likely ranked among the top half dozen guards of all time back then.
Originally posted here:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=9263
My early guess for 2013 election would be: Haley, Parcells, Reed, Shields, Strahan. I do not believe the voters will place more than one first time player in the HOF in 2013 and they have not been too kind in recent years to the 1st time OL who have not been elected even with careers close to Allen (7/11, 90s, 00s) and Odgen (9/11, 00s); these would include the failed 1st year elections of McDaniel (9/12, 90s), Roaf (6/11, 90s 00s), and Shields (9/12, 00s).
Bruce Matthews (#78) was 1st ballot in 2007 and like Ogden (#72) and Allen (#95) were ranked very closely together in the Top 100 Greatest Players. They’ll be there by 2014 at the latest with Shields. Strahan was #99 in the poll which included all 44 HOF voters.
Offensive linemen very seldom get in on first ballot. Larry Allen to me should be a first ballot HOFer. Larry was a big part of the reason why Emmitt ia the all time leading rusher. He was a physical specimen, benching over 600 pounds and squatting over 900. Yes he was on the top 100, but that doesn’t mean you are a first ballot HOFer automatically . Still an incredible achievement nevertheless. If a wide receiver isn’t elected next year, it will effect the future of players such as Hines Ward, Issac Bruce, and Torry Holt in the pecking order.
Is Steve Atwater a recurrence in the semifinalists?
Zach Thomas (5/7/00s), is eligible in 2014 if I am correct. What are his chances of making the Hall of Fame? He deserves it being a Jets fan, I watched him at least once at home games since 2002, till he left the Dolphins. Great player all around.
Well there were definitely some surprises this year, but ultimately all 5 modern-era inductees are well deserving, as was senior nominee Jack Butler. I too am a little bit confused as to why Dick Stanfel was not inducted, but the big surprise is definitely that no receivers were inducted once again.
That being said, I am quite impressed by the fact that the hall has once again continued their recent trend of balancing the number of offensive and defensive players getting inducted each year. They have really cut down on the backlog on the defensive side of the ball, especially when it comes to pass rushers.
Roaf and Dawson getting in was a nice surprise, as both were highly deserving. Doleman getting in over Haley was also a surprise to see, but personally I think they picked the player with the better overall career.
Looking ahead to next year, I personally think they will load up on first-ballot inductees with Strahan, Allen and Ogden all getting inducted. While the hall has been slow to induct linemen in recent years, Ogden and Allen have something that the likes of McDaniel, Roaf, Dawson and Shields do not…Super Bowl rings. I think that this difference will be enough to vault them to first-ballot status. If the hall continues its trend of inducting at least 2 defensive players a year, I think that Strahan will be joined by Kevin Greene next year. I think Haley is a Russ Grimm-type candidate that will get stuck at the final 10 for a couple of years due to his lack of a consistent, long career. Call it a hunch. I don’t believe Warren Sap gets in right away, although I do think he’ll be inducted within 3-4 years.
For the final candidate, I believe they will finally induct a receiver next year, and I believe that receiver will be Andre Reed. Bill Parcells is another possibility, but as with other contributor candidates, I believe that he may fall victim of being too easy to ignore given his unlimited years as a modern-era candidate. He should easily be the best coaching candidate for the next several years so there is no rush to induct him.
In summary, I pick Reed, Allen, Ogden, Strahan and Greene for 2013. The seniors candidates are a total crapshoot, so I’ll take a shot in the dark and go with Chuck Howley and L.C. Greenwood.
it is most likely going to be jerome bettis, warren sapp, michael strahan, andre reed, and bill parcells, with charles haley or allen or ogden as a wild-card or cris carter replacing reed if they want to go that route there, and senior nominees need to be good nominees for 2013 like jerry kramer and johnny robinson
Again I do not see voters selecting as many as two or three 1st time players next year especially given the number of DL and OL positions (including those potential 1st year players) that will appear on the 15 finalist lists, just too much potential vote splitting. For example between Shields, Allen and Odgen and then between Sapp, Strahan and Haley. Also the years in which the voters selected 2 first time players is few and 3 first time players rare – and they included years with some of the top players in NFL history, which does not apply to any of the finalists next year.
Ill be posting my senior nominee list within the next 2 months
“Bruce Matthews (#78) was 1st ballot in 2007 and like Ogden (#72) and Allen (#95) were ranked very closely together in the Top 100 Greatest Players. They’ll be there by 2014 at the latest with Shields. Strahan was #99 in the poll which included all 44 HOF voters.”
Matthews was a 10/14 player hence his qualifications were a little better then Ogden and Allen, who yes both have one SB ring but hard to say whether a SB to an OL helps their case. I would also note that Matthews faced a weaker group of 15 finalists in 2007 with no other strong 1st year candidates (and of which 4 of those 15 finalists have let to make HOF now five elections later).
I say again among the 44 voters there will be great voting splitting in 2013 would could result in some deserving players not elected and some very surprising results. Also the recent trend towards the defense would appear to favor the likes of Strahan, Haley, Greene and maybe even Williams over the clusters of OL and WR that will be on the list of 15 finalists.
yeah but if the voters had some sense in their heads in which they don’t, they would vote in a wide receiver like cris carter or andre reed in next year’s class for 2013. i do think however there will be seven inductees next year with the 5 modern era candidates and whoever comes out of the senior nominees hopefully jerry kramer and johnny robinson, because i think the selection commitee wants to put in 7 to make the total of pro football hall of famers to 280 so that it evens out especially since the hall of fame is going to be finished with their renovations by that time.
chris, I would love to see Jerry Kramer and Johnny Robinson as the senior nominees next year. Those are my exact same top 2 choices. Unfortunately, given that the hall nominated an OL and a DB this year, I can’t see them going back to the same positions next year.
This will be especially true with Kramer since there will be 3 excellent modern era candidates, including 2 guards up for induction next year (Ogden, Allen and Shields). I don’t see why it matters, or if it just a coincidence rather than a pattern, but the hall typically seems to have an aversion toward inducting multiple guys from the same position in the same year (which is what surprised me the most about Roaf and Dawson both getting inducted this year, in addition to Stanfel being voted down).
Robinson seems more likely, but nonetheless I think the hall will go with something like a DL and a LB. Despite the glut of good senior candidates at WR, I don’t see them throwing another one into the mix until at least one of Carter, Reed or Brown get inducted. I would say that they might go for a QB, RB or TE, but there really aren’t many standout candidates at any of those positions.
BSLO I saw reference on another discussion board to a preliminary list of 20 seniors considered last August for the eventual selection of the final two senior nominees. Have you ever seen that list as far as I recall it has never been publicaly released although Rick Gosselin with DMN reported a few years ago that Chuck Howley and Cliff Harris were on such a short list. Given that the list of potential senior nominees we have posted or discussed here often exceeds 20 names it would be helpful to know which senior candidates the committee is considering in any given year.
I haven’t ever seen this list publicly released either Paul, although I’ve looked all over for it on Google several times. The one reference I saw on this site was to a comment made by boardgame, located here:
https://www.zoneblitz.com/2011/02/05/pro-football-hall-fame-names-class-2011/#comment-5957
Looks like a pretty decent list with a couple of notable omissions (e.g. Mick Tinglehoff), but nobody that absolutely didn’t deserve consideration. I have occasionally seen references to players that just missed out (both Howley and Harris, along with L.C. Greenwood and Tommy Nobis seem to be close every year) on the hall of fame’s website when they announce the senior nominees but there is never an official tally kept. It’s too bad because as awesomely transparent as the modern-era process is, the senior nomination process remains mostly a mystery.
ok bachslunch, then the senior nominees if they are going to that route with a linebacker and an offensive player, then they should nominate chuck howley for the linebacker and lionel taylor for the running back spot, that could be my guess there
chris, your guess is as good as mine who the Senior Committee will nominate. And it’s also a crap shoot who they’ll elect once they are nominated, though in recent elections, it looks like having been a finalist before could be a detriment regardless of worth (Stanfel, Humphrey, and Goldberg did not make the cut — only Hayes has done so in the last 5 years — while those who were not finalists before, specifically Butler, Little, LeBeau, Hanburger, Richter, Thomas, have made it in).
I’m fine with either Chuck Howley or Lionel Taylor being nominees, though note well that Taylor was a WR. But there are lots of good possibilities.
In 2013, this will be the hall’s 50th anniversery and hopefully a very strong class is selected for that ceremony!
A tremendous class would be Chuck Howley, Jerry Kramer, Charles Haley, Bill Parcells, Larry Allen, Jonathen Ogden and of course finally one of those three WR’s(Reed, Carter or Brown).
GREAT CLASS!!!
Am thinking Larry Allen and Jonathan Ogden have a good chance next year to be “first ballot,” but am also thinking Michael Strahan has a pretty solid chance as well. Warren Sapp will also be first-time eligible also, but am thinking he’ll follow a similar trajectory to Cortez Kennedy (wait a couple years, then get in). Other pretty good first-timers, such as Morten Andersen and John Lynch, might not even make the finalist list.
If Allen, Ogden, and Strahan get in, it’s possible the other two slots will be taken from the folks who reached “final 10” but not “final 5” this year (Aeneas Williams, Bill Parcells, Charles Haley, Cris Carter, Andre Reed). Good luck guessing which two it might be.
I hope Jerry Kramer gets inducted in general. He is on the 50th anniversary All NFL Team and is the only player not to be inducted that is on it. That alone is Hall of Fame worthy. Add in his 5 first team AP, 5x World champion. Yes Bart Starr, Forrest Gregg, Jim Taylor,Herb Adderley
, Ray Nitschke, etc. were the big reason and voters don’t give a ton of credit to titles, but if you were part of the reason why they won than of course more power to you. He were a part of the reason they won those titles.
As I mentioned before the quality of the depth of the 15 finalists is too good for two or three 1st year players to get selected next year, plus none of the 1st year players are seen as the top of their positions in NFL history. I really fail to see how the qualifications of Allen and Ogden are that much better then Roaf and Shields both of whom did not get elected in their first year nor do I see Stranhan as worthy as Bruce Smith or Reggie White both recent DL 1st year elections. The HOF does not select three 1st time players very often, and when they do we are taking about players deemed to be among the top 5 to have ever played their position, of next years finalists perhaps only Allen would fit that standard, certainly Ogden, Strahan and Sapp do not. Given how voters this year and last mentioned the high quality of the pool of 15 finalists (“all deserve election”) it is going to take a pretty high standard of a 1st year player next year to get past the returning final 5 or even final 10 from this election. Yes it is very possible one could do it but not 2-3. I am telling you the number of OL and DL on the ballot for 2013 will end up splitting votes making very hard morefor than one OL and DL to make it to the last vote on final five.
I am not sure what the issue is with Jerry Kramer but voters have had 25 years of his eligibility as a modern player (with 9 appearances as a finalist), plus over two decades as a senior candidate – leading to his one nomination as a Senior (in 1997) – to select him, so the discussion and debate among the voters is a pretty long history. And frankly as a member of the seniors selection committee one look at the failed recent elections of so many 2nd time senior nominees (Stanfel, Humphrey, and Goldberg) would basically force me to look at the many other deserving senior candidates worthy of consideration and nomination as the senior candidate.
I don’t think Strahan is at the same level as Deacon Jones, Gino Marchetti, Bruce Smith and Reggie White so I say no 1st ballot for him next year but a ‘shoe-in’ for the future.
That’s why next year would be a good time to slip Haley in while Strahan waits atleast another turn.
I would agree that Allen is closer to all time greatest Guard than Ogden is at Tackle.
Also, Allen switched to LT in 1998 because of the George Hegamin fiasco of 1997 at LT and made the pro bowl and 1st team AP all pro that season.
Also in 1997, Allen routinely went from guard to LT on passing downs because the Cowboys didn’t trust Hegamin in those situations; the normal rotation for Dallas in 1997 was Allen start at guard on 1st and 10 but move to LT on 3rd and 8, where again he excelled at protecting Aikman’s blind side.
Don’t forget in 1994 a rookie Allen replaced injured Erik Williams at RT and excelled, saving the Cowboys’ season after losing such a stalwart as Willams. If Allen played in enough games that year he probably makes the pro bowl at RT.
Allen could’ve been an all time LT if the Cowboys elected him to be, but he was best served on those teams at Guard blocking inside for Emmitt Smith who was a between the tackles runner.
I think Allen is a 1st ballot lock HOF’er, IMO.
To me, it’s not who was elected, I have no qualms with the six who were elected and would say they all deserve it.
It’s who was not elected.
First, this has to be a matter of politics on getting in on the first ballot.
There is absolutely no reason whatsoever Willie Roaf should not have gotten in last year and had to wait.
11 Pro Bowls, 6 All Pros, 2 All Decade Teams. He should’ve been a slam dunk in 2011.
However, they felt the need to make him wait and now Will Shields has to wait another year when he should’ve been elected this year and Roaf in 2011.
Will Shields: 12 Pro Bowls, 9 All Pros, 2000s All Decade. That is a Hall of Famer. Add him to the list consisting of Jerry Kramer, Dick Schafrath, Walt Sweeney and possibly Ed Budde among guards who have been snubbed of a well deserving bust in Canton.
The whole wide receiver thing is ridiculous. If the voters have a hard time separating the three, then choose to pick one this year, one in 2013 and one in 2014.
There is absolutely no reason why Cris Carter should not be in. The same goes for Tim Brown and Andre Reed. Carter is the biggest injustice of them all. While Reed was on a team that lost four straight Super Bowls, his 27 career Super Bowl receptions is second all time. Guess who has the most? With 30, it’s Jerry Rice.
I cannot honestly fathom why Stanfel was not chosen. It has to be the Hall of Fame overlooking guards again. I don’t get it. As deserving as Jack Butler was, I thought some hold it against some who played on poor teams and reward winners? Butler should’ve been in decades ago despite playing on poor Steelers teams. Stanfel, meanwhile, was on the Lions 1952 and 1953 NFL Championship Teams. He also was offensive line coach for the 1985 Chicago Bears. Why nominate a senior candidate if they won’t get voted for? They passed on Marshall Goldberg in 2008 and Claude Humphrey in 2009 as well.
Bill Parcells won two Super Bowls, took four different teams to the playoffs. Now the question is, who is the bigger injustice: Bill Parcells or Don Coryell? Both of them earned their bust.
Martin was a great choice. All of them I think should have gotten in. However, not all of them were high up on the totem pole for me.
Congratulations to everybody who got elected.
If his presenter provides that level of detailed presentation that perhaps Allen can become a 1st ballot selection, but many people said the same for Rolf, Shields,and Parcells (“oh they are easy 1st ballot locks”), and we know what happened there. Sorry, I tend do to agree with his case but in considering the voters I look at the examples of Roaf and Shields, and how good the pool of final 15 and then 10 is going to be next year (with Allen at perhaps one other OL in that mix) and can foresee Allen missing out next year. I do think given the recent history to select pass rushing DL/LB and with Haley’s move into the final 10 this year he could make the next step to election before Greene and even Strahan. Certainly the case for Odgen is so similar to both Roaf and Shields so I would envision a few years wait for his election, if Allen is a step above both Odgen and Shields, so if vote splitting were to occur it would be between Odgen and Shields as I really see little to separate them.
Corey remember as many people have stated, including some of the HOF voters, it is a numbers game: only 5 slots for modern candidates among 15 deserving nominees. You say you agree with all six elected this year, so you have to ask yourself who would you take off from the 5 modern to add one of the players you feel is deserving???? And this difficult situation happens every year, for every case like a Chris Carter you would have to eliminate some one that 80% of the 44 voters agreed was deserving. Sure you could make a strong case for Carter, Parcells, Shields but someone could also make a strong case for every person actually elected. As to the WRs there is no means for the voters to get together and decide lets elect one in 2012, 2013 and 2014. The discussions are behind closed doors and each round of voting is private, no voter knows what the others are selecting on their ballots. So if you have voters split between three players none will get elected until enough voters can be convinced by the case for one over the others.
I would support Stanfel, but I can understand how some voters (and it would only take 8 out of 44 not to vote for him) would hold his seven year career against him, again I do not agree with that view but can see how some voters would view his case that way. Yea I suspect the seniors nomination committee must be getting pretty ticked off to see their nominations (selected among 20 senior candidates) are turned down repeatedly by the larger committee of voters who have not studied all the senior nominees or of course even seen them play. It was exactly that issue that drove Paul Zimmerman off the seniors nominating committee several years ago when the full committee failed to elect Bob Hayes the first time he was nominated as a senior.
There simply is no way with 5 slots and 15 deserving nominees to elect every deserving player and every player seen as a “slam dunk 1st time selection” to the HOF. Personally, this debate every year about 1st time selections is way overrated and overstated. Every year there are 15 nominees with perhaps 10 or more of them are deserving of election right then and now, but only 5 slots. Someone well deserving person is going to be left out every year and perhaps for a period of years, that is just the way it is in a numbers game.
If it was up to me, The Hall of Fame Class would look like this:
#1 Cris Carter
#2 Will Shields
#3 Bill Parcells
#4 Curtis Martin
#5 Willie Roaf
I know it is tough with only five, but I feel those were the strongest if you ask me.
Plus, I would have elected both Stanfel and Butler.
You know who else is an offensive lineman who played seven years and is in the H.O.F.? Dwight Stephenson.
Just like Stephenson, Stanfel was a five time Pro Bowler. Just like how Stephenson made the 1980s All Decade Team, Stanfel made it for the 1950s.
I really wish the seniors would be actually debated on the floor instead of just voted on quietly.
Stephenson was a 5/5 player (all pro/pro bowl) in seven year career; Stanfel was a 0/5 player, so there are some differences but again I do agree with you that he should have been elected since he already passed through the senior candidate nomination from 20 to 2 finalists. I do think the average voter is familiar with the post 1980s players, and perhaps to some degree with the 1970s careers, but they have no context for the 1960 and earlier players. I once suggested a one time election of the top pre 1970 players (10-15 or may the remaining members of the decade teams 1960s and earlier?) and then move forward with seniors from 1970s and beyond for the future senior elections.
I posted a list in one of the articles on here who I would elect for a top ten of senior candidates.
The good thing about Dawson getting in is he deserves it. Like I commented on another point, now it’s time for Tingelhoff to be the next center elected.
I also would be open to expanding the number of senior inductees as well. If you want to put in three or what not. Hey, in baseball, you could vote for up to ten people. I don’t see why they can’t apply a similar system to football. Perhaps it might clean up some of the logjam. I think with baseball, they do a good job with the Veterans’ Committee, they are elected prior to the BBWAA announcement. I don’t see why senior nominees shouldn’t automatically be elected since they won’t have to jump through any more hoops.
On top of that, people complaining Haley and Greene are not in and I see arguments for both but if you ask me the biggest linebacker logjam is at the senior line: Randy Gradishar, Maxie Baughan, Robert Brazile and Chuck Howley I think should all go in before they worry about Kevin Greene and I don’t know if Charles Haley should go in at all.
The good news is they did do some of logjam cleaning this year but Carter, Brown, Reed, Bettis and Shields are five of the biggest names on the logjam. While Dawson, Doleman and Kennedy were good choices, in my opinion they were not top priorities and some of the biggest causes for the logjam, if you ask me at least, wait another year.
Unfortunately, history dictates that Shields was almost certainly not going to get in year 1–if Randall McDaniel couldn’t get in, when he had almost the same career (12/7) as Shields, and it took him 3-4 years to get in.
Yes I am aware that Shields and McDaniel had remarkably similar careers in terms of accomplishments. That is no reason to believe, however, that Shields should not have gone in right away. What more does a man have to do?
@Paul, according to Pro Football Reference, Stanfel also was a 5/5 player. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/StanDi00.htm
Also just learned that he was the only offensive lineman to earn the MVP award in an NFL Championship game. http://www.nola.com/saints/index.ssf/2012/02/it_wasnt_about_coaching_but_di.html
Neither here nor there. The vote is over and what is done is done. But the more I read and hear about him the more I think he should have gone in.
I definitely think he should have gone in, all things considered. As for pro-football-reference, differnt sites mention different things. I have seen Ed Meador’s wikipedia page say he was an 8 time Pro Bowler while PFR and CCC said he made six of them.
It does make me wonder though. Candidates like Henry Jordan and Bob Hayes did get in on their second try. Stanfel did not. What if Jerry Kramer is a nominee again? Will we see a repeat of 1997? It just goes to show you being a Senior Candidate is not automatic. However, more than likely one of two will get in.
http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/giants/post/_/id/12749/warner-eli-isnt-hall-of-fame-material-yet
Kurt has a point. But Hall of Fame voters look at who were the “best players” of championship teams. Eli is by far the best in the two. He needs to play more yes, but he is a serious contender. Big Ben IMO is HOF worthy like Eli. Yes Eli two SB MVPs: I have said from the start(not in this blog of course) that Eli is a very talented player, but so is Ben Roethlisberger. .Eli=( ) Ben is 10-4(8-3) in the playoffs, 80-33(69-50) in the regular season, both have two rings, Ben has a 92.1 career passer rating(82.1…41st best), 11th best all time. I would say after Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, get inducted into the hall, Ben and Eli lead the next group. Yes very early, but Cam Newton is a HOFer in the making.
Is Dwight Freeney Hall of Fame worthy?
Right now Eli Manning has the second-worst resume of any QB to win multiple Super Bowls, behind Jim Plunkett (0/0!), with Roethlisberger coming next (both are 0/2 with only Ben’s additional Super Bowl trip serving as the tiebreaker). Aaron Rodgers could be in better shape than either of them, swapping out a ring for an All-Pro team. I think even most of the people who are saying “Eli=HOF” now are projecting to the end of his career, when he has a few more Pro Bowls under his belt. If neither do anything else the rest of their career, they may end up being a test case for just how much multiple Super Bowls can really rescue a QB’s resume.
I don’t think there is any doubt Dwight Freeney is going into the Hall of Fame someday, though right now he’d probably have to wait a while. I made a list of the Hall of Fame chances of the top active players: http://sports.morganwick.com/2012/02/2012-pro-football-hall-of-fame-watch-the-top-50-active-resumes/
“Yes I am aware that Shields and McDaniel had remarkably similar careers in terms of accomplishments. That is no reason to believe, however, that Shields should not have gone in right away. What more does a man have to do?”
There is nothing he can do, election is a numbers game with only 5 slots so he will have to wait for his turn. Just because you are a great player does not mean an automatic first year election to the HOF, many a great player has had to wait for election. If Shields was elected this year and Dawson or Roaf were not elected you could make the same statement about them “what does a man have to do?”.
“On top of that, people complaining Haley and Greene are not in and I see arguments for both but if you ask me the biggest linebacker logjam is at the senior line: Randy Gradishar, Maxie Baughan, Robert Brazile and Chuck Howley I think should all go in before they worry about Kevin Greene and I don’t know if Charles Haley should go in at all.”
The election of seniors is a different process then the modern players. There are perhaps 20 or more deserving candidates on the seniors list including the 4 LBs you list, it will take several elections to get those LBs among other deserving candidates elected.
Meanwhile Greene and Haley are already under serious consideration with Haley advancing this year to the final 10. So it is highly likely that both will be elected in the coming years. There is no means for voters to give priority to senior LBs over modern LBs as a separate committee nominates the 2 senior candidates with I doubt very little consideration as to positions of those seniors compared to potential modern finalists. Although I would agree that over a period of years it is likely that the seniors committee aims to nominate a mix of different positions. My point is that I doubt the members of the seniors nomination committee is considering or comparing players and positions of modern players to decide who to nominate as senior candidates. In many respects they really are separate nomination processes until the vote on the 7 finalists (5+2).
“The good news is they did do some of logjam cleaning this year but Carter, Brown, Reed, Bettis and Shields are five of the biggest names on the logjam. While Dawson, Doleman and Kennedy were good choices, in my opinion they were not top priorities and some of the biggest causes for the logjam, if you ask me at least, wait another year.”
I agree that the three WRs is a major mess and logjam that needs to be resolved in next few elections somehow. The elections of all three Dawson, Doleman and Kennedy did not cause the WR logjam, but yes replacing one of them would have perhaps left room for a WR (but then we would have logjams at OL or DL). I do not see how Bettis (in only his 2nd year on the ballot and did not make final 10) and Shields (first year player) are causing any logjams? Clearly voters are waiting to elect Bettis until that Martin had been selected, and if Shields gets elected at the expense of Dawson or Roaf we still have a OL logjam to deal with.
Paul, Dick Stanfel was indeed a 5/5 player like Dwight Stephenson, not 0/5. Specifics for Stanfel, omitting Sporting News from that period which is pretty much an all-conference level team:
1953–1st team all pro AP, UPI, NY Daily News.
1954–1st team all pro AP, UPI, NY Daily News.
1956–1st team all pro AP, NEA, UPI.
1957–1st team all pro AP, NEA, UPI, NY Daily News.
1958–1st team all pro AP, NEA, UPI, NY Daily News.
I’ve seen an argument that one of those years (1954) Stanfel was not deserving because he only played six games that season. But given that Logan Mankins was named 1st team all pro in 2010 while playing in only 9 games, I’d have to be convinced that it’s not possible to be deserving of this status if you don’t play a full season via something like film study. And even if that’s the case, there’s another problem — there’s only one HoF-er who played any appreciable amount at guard during this decade, Stan Jones, and he did so only for four years. Meanwhile, given that there are three centers from the 50s in (Frank Gatski, Jim Ringo, Chuck Bednarik) and 5 offensive tackles (Roosevelt Brown, Lou Creekmur, Mike McCormack, Bob St. Clair, Lou Groza) who played significant amounts of time from the 50s in the HoF, the numbers are just badly skewed along the o-line — unless guards are just that decade’s equal to 90s/00s long-snappers, and I’m not at all convinced they are. And Stanfel’s numbers are among the best at this position for the time period at 5(5AP)/5/50s — only Dick Barwegan at 5(4AP)/4/50s (7 year career) and Duane Putnam at 5(3AP)/5/none (11 year career) are in that region.
plus i don’t think cris carter made the cut this year because he and chris doleman were two vikings on the list and the selectors are not going to put two guys from the same team in the hall of fame, it just doesnt work that way. same with willie roaf and will shields from the kansas city chiefs
Chris I doubt very much that the two guys from the same team was a factor as there are many HOF classes with players from the same team and even a case of at least one class with three from the same team. Carter did not get elected because of the vote splitting with Reed in the vote down from 10 to 5 and Roaf got elected because he was in his second year while Shields was a first time nominee with qualifications similar to Roaf.
So bachslunch what is your theory as to why Stanfel did not get elected? My guess is the lack of appreciation or understanding of the 1950s era NFL history by some voters (and it only takes 8 out of 44 NO voters).
The more I think about the WR logjam, the more I’ve come to realize the players are simply too similar to each other. Look at the recent “logjam” of RBs: Faulk, Martin, and Bettis. All three became eligible together two years ago. The committee determined that Faulk was the best of the three. While this point can obviously be debated, I wholehearted agree. Faulk was otherworldly at times — especially in his MVP season. This year the committee determined that Martin was the better player than Bettis. Again, this is debatable, but, again, I agree. Martin was a classic work-horse back that we will likely not see again with the big increase in dual RB teams. This leaves Bettis who I tend to think is a borderline HOF candidate, but at least he will have a clear path to induction next year with no other RBs in the mix (unless Terrell Davis makes it to the final 15, which I doubt).
Getting back to the receivers, I think Brown might have actually been the best of the three (especially when you consider his return abilities), but can you really separate his numbers and abilities from those of Carter? While Reed’s career stats are lower than Brown’s and Carter’s, he critically played a few years before the explosion of passing numbers. He also played with a fantastic RB in Thurman Thomas who took away several touches in the passing game per game. As a result, all three players sit in purgatory. The only way to clean up this mess is for the voters to decide that Brown, Carter, or Reed (listed alphabetically on purpose) was the “Faulk” of this group. Then the “Martin” can get in. And, finally, the “Bettis” will have a clear path. Until that happens, this conversation will continue. Thoughts?
Paul, good question re Dick Stanfel. There’s a fellow who posts over at the pfraforum who appears to have some level of inside insight into the voting. He was the one who brought up the 1954 1st team all pro selection as one possible factor and also mentioned Stanfel’s short career as another. I have no reason not to think he’s right. But I’m thinking that while those might have been factors to some of the voters, they’re not good reasons to deny Stanfel when weighing his case and seeing it in context.
If Stanfel’s reputation is in fact significantly overrated despite his postseason honors — say via good close-quality film study — that might be different. Perhaps such issues exist, but I’m not aware of them. Failing this, I’d have to agree there’s a lack of appreciation or understanding of NFL history by the HoF voters, especially history from the 70s and before. And yes, you’re right — it only takes 8 numbskulls to sink a candidacy, and with the voting being kept secret, there’s no way to know who was responsible. I’d like to see cogent explanations from the naysayers, myself.
“The election of seniors is a different process then the modern players. There are perhaps 20 or more deserving candidates on the seniors list including the 4 LBs you list, it will take several elections to get those LBs among other deserving candidates elected.”
I am aware of that; but if the writers are going to be electing linebackers, they should focus on those four first because I would put those four in before I would put in Greene or Haley. I am glad it is separate but keep in mind if all six are elected then that adds to the linebackers in even larger. I would put Greene in. I am not sure though if I would put Haley in. I know if I had to choose between electing the four senior linebackers or Greene and Haley, the four senior linebackers will win with me every time.
“I agree that the three WRs is a major mess and logjam that needs to be resolved in next few elections somehow. The elections of all three Dawson, Doleman and Kennedy did not cause the WR logjam, but yes replacing one of them would have perhaps left room for a WR (but then we would have logjams at OL or DL). I do not see how Bettis (in only his 2nd year on the ballot and did not make final 10) and Shields (first year player) are causing any logjams? Clearly voters are waiting to elect Bettis until that Martin had been selected, and if Shields gets elected at the expense of Dawson or Roaf we still have a OL logjam to deal with.”
Shields and Bettis are two of the best players not in. I understand Dawson, Doleman and Kennedy didn’t cause the WR logjam but by electing them instead of a receiver, they only brush it under the rug even further and the logjam will only continue to grow. I am glad that Dawson and Roaf got in but in all honesty there is no reason if you ask me why Roaf should not had gotten in last year. Then put Shields in this year and Dawson either before 2011 or in 2013. I do think Shields is the best of the three. Just my opinion though.
“plus i don’t think cris carter made the cut this year because he and chris doleman were two vikings on the list and the selectors are not going to put two guys from the same team in the hall of fame, it just doesnt work that way. same with willie roaf and will shields from the kansas city chiefs”
Marshall and Les Richter, despite being separate, were both elected despite being Rams. Jack Butler and Dermontti Dawson, despite being separate, were both Steelers. In 2009 they had no problem electing Bruce Smith and his owner with the Bills, Ralph Wilson Jr.
Ok, so not exactly two players from the modern era on the same team but the same team has had more than one representative. There is no reason, if you ask me, why Shields and Roaf couldn’t have gone in together.
Corey the only reason Shields did not elected this year and Roaf was not elected last year was because voters deemed someone else more deserving – it is as simple as that, nothing to do with their shared teams etc…
Again when you elect someone it means someone also deserving is not elected and there is only five slots each year. There appears to be general agreement that the recent final ten players are all deserving thus it takes a few elections to get them in. You are focusing on when and the order rather then the reality that with limited space they can not get everyone in until a few elections pass.
Bettis did not make the final ten this year or last so clearly the voters believe that there are still five other players more desrving then Bettis, and I would agree with that assessment
As a Bears fan, I fail to see how Richard Dent was more deserving than Willie Roaf. I honestly think Road should have gotten in last year. I wonder now if Shields gets put in next year due to this. It is unfortunate there is only five slots. I completely understand that not everybody can get in. I am totally understanding of that. I just don’t see why Willie Roaf had to wait a whole year when he should not have. I personally would have put in Shields before Doleman or Kennedy myself. Not to take anything away from those two but Will Shields should not have to wait another year. That’s just my opinion. If I had to vote only one in out of Shields, Doleman or Kennedy, I’m voting Shields in every time.
The 44 voters do not select the two senior candidates to be considered a smaller subcommittee does that so again there is no way for the 44 voters to elect the LBs in order of seniors before modern.
Also Montana and Lott were elected in the same year and from the same 49er teams as were Dorsett and White from the 1970/80s Cowboys, so if the players are deserving same teams is not an issue.
With 44 voters you have 44 opinions and no organized voting, so the result is that it only takes a difference of several votes to advance a player from 15 to 10 and the same few voters to elect one
Some voters will not elect a player in their first year unless they are among the very best, top 5 of players all time at their position, and some voters prefer to vote based on players who have been on the ballot longer, not that I agree with either voting approach but if 8 out of 44 vote those ways it creates these election patterns.
I don’t agree with it either. Besides, I believe both Roaf and Shields have a very, VERY good argument for top five all time at tackle and guard, respectively, if you ask me.
“The 44 voters do not select the two senior candidates to be considered a smaller subcommittee does that so again there is no way for the 44 voters to elect the LBs in order of seniors before modern.”
I am well aware of this.
So why do you keep suggesting that the voters need to select your four senior LBs before the two current modern LB finalists when there is no means for the voters to do so?
Corey, you have to remember that the hall has tried to balance out the offensive and defensive representation in each class in recent years. So theoretically there were 3 such spots for offensive players this year and they went to Martin, Dawson and Roaf.
As a diehard Kansas City Chiefs fan, it pains me to say this, but Shields is not a first-ballot hall of famer and I would personally be surprised if he made it next year over Larry Allen. The 12 Pro Bowls are impressive, but remember that we was only a 1st-team all-pro 3 times, only 2 of which were the Associated Press’ picks.
Since Roaf was also only a 3-time 1st Team AP All-Pro, I would also say I had nothing wrong with him not getting in last year. To me, the only linemen that should make it on the first ballot are guys with a very high number of 1st-team All-Pro selections (like Bruce Matthews who had 7), or a guy with at least one ring and 4-5 first-team All-Pros (like Ogden and Allen who are eligible next year).
They will also no doubt take into account the wait that certain players have had when choosing who to induct. That no doubt had to be part of the thinking in recent years when guys like Fred Dean, Art Monk, Andre Tippett, Russ Grimm, Richard Dent and Dermontti Dawson were inducted despite being up against other players at their same position with better resumes.
“So why do you keep suggesting that the voters need to select your four senior LBs before the two current modern LB finalists when there is no means for the voters to do so?”
Because I think if they’re going to elect linebackers, remember, the entire committee still has to elect the seniors, I think the senior linebackers are a bigger priority.
“As a diehard Kansas City Chiefs fan, it pains me to say this, but Shields is not a first-ballot hall of famer and I would personally be surprised if he made it next year over Larry Allen. The 12 Pro Bowls are impressive, but remember that we was only a 1st-team all-pro 3 times, only 2 of which were the Associated Press’ picks.
Since Roaf was also only a 3-time 1st Team AP All-Pro, I would also say I had nothing wrong with him not getting in last year. To me, the only linemen that should make it on the first ballot are guys with a very high number of 1st-team All-Pro selections (like Bruce Matthews who had 7), or a guy with at least one ring and 4-5 first-team All-Pros (like Ogden and Allen who are eligible next year).”
I don’t get this whole “This person should wait another year” thing. Others might but I don’t. As for Roaf, I have seen websites list him as an AP First Team All Pro six times and second team three times. He also was named to two All Decade Teams and eight all conference teams. That sounds like a worthy first ballot Hall of Famer to me.
Shields may have only made the All Pro team a few times but the twelve Pro Bowls- only a handful number of people made that and while I wouldn’t necessarily rank him above John Hannah, I have to believe he is up there.
I absolutely do not buy the logic that somebody should go in first ballot for a team effort (ring). Ogden and Allen both have Super Bowl rings but that is a team thing. The Hall of Fame is an individual accomplishment. I don’t get the rings logic. Charles Haley may have five of them but he couldn’t have done it without his teammates. The seniors have made mistakes like this with the 1970s Steelers. I cannot understand how Lynn Swann is in and yet Andy Russell isn’t.
“They will also no doubt take into account the wait that certain players have had when choosing who to induct. That no doubt had to be part of the thinking in recent years when guys like Fred Dean, Art Monk, Andre Tippett, Russ Grimm, Richard Dent and Dermontti Dawson were inducted despite being up against other players at their same position with better resumes.”
So then why DID they have to wait, for one? Number two, look how long Ray Guy and Don Coryell have waited and they still cannot get their respect. It really bothers me.
And if the senior candidates are not LBs? There are plenty of other deserving players at other positions in the senior pool.
Why DID they have to wait? They had to wait because only 5 are elected each year so some players take years to get elected, it is a numbers game.
There are strong cases against Guy and Coryell that it why they have not been elected, in the minds if the voters there have been better candidates it is simple as that
When has the seniors committee nominated steelers from the 1970s?
I know there are other deserving candidates. As a matter of fact, my top two priorities are Johnny Robinson and Al Wistert. However, the four linebackers follow right after.
I don’t see strong or good cases against Ray Guy or Don Coryell and I do think they are better candidates than others out there.
There were no slam dunk choices in 2012 so no surprise at all that Shields did not get elected first time. Dawson and Roaf had been waiting longer so its very likely that when you have 3 candidates closely matched as these three were that Shields must simply wait his turn. Dawson was named to 6 AP first-team All-Pros, while Shields had 2 such selections. Roaf had 9 total AP All-Pros (3 1st team) compared to Shields with 6 in total (2 1st team). Roaf also had the 2 All-Decade selections in his favour.
There is very little evidence there to suggest Shields really should have jumped to the front of the queue among the three OL candidates. And next year he could get squeezed out again. Ogden is a 9-time All-Pro (4 1st team) and Allen has 7 All-Pros (6 1st team) with 11 Pro Bowls apiece. At the very worst I think Shields gets elected in 2014 with his 3rd attempt, which would match Randall McDaniel. Seeing how recent Classes have tended to be more balanced I think the 2013 Class could very well again see 2 OL and 2 defensive players, with the last modern era slot finally going to a WR. They might also go with 1 OL, 1 WR, 2 defensive players and Parcells for another balanced class between offense and defense.
** Peter King responded to an email on his MMQB-Tuesday edition from an angry Steelers fan who couldn’t believe Jerome Bettis was snubbed. King’s response was as follows and it highlights the problems when you have 44 voters – all with differing opinions – and 15 modern era finalists, all of whom would be worthy selections.
”I have been hit over the head since Saturday that we snubbed Bill Parcells, Andre Reed, Cris Carter, Tim Brown, Charles Haley, Eddie DeBartolo and Will Shields. I will add Jerome to that list. Just a reminder: Five spots a year for modern-era candidates. Five. Did I mention that we have five places every year in which to put the greatest players who ever played pro football? Five. F-I-V-E.”
Corey, as I understand it, the argument for Don Coryell is primarily a Contributor’s case, as an offensive innovator. The case against him involves three things: his W-L record is not especially impressive at 111-83-1 (.572 pct.), he had zero success in the postseason, and his defenses were often as bad as his offenses were good.
For Ray Guy, the argument for him revolves around a strong postseason honors profile at 6(3AP)/7/70s and some intangible narrative stuff (hit the Superdome gondola with a punt, the college football punter award is named for him, hang time). The primary case against involves these: he had a reputation for far too many touchbacks and far too few coffin corner pins, his average yards per punt is not especially impressive, and the fact that some HoF voters won’t elect a pure punter regardless of merit since they figure in a limited number of plays per game.
jerome bettis will definitely get in next year for 2013 since he is the only running back returning from the snubbed list and there is no competition with him as far as the running back position is concerned unless there is a major push to get roger craig into the hall of fame in which he should or the 15 finalist list which i don’t see happening whatsoever
“There were no slam dunk choices in 2012 so no surprise at all that Shields did not get elected first time. Dawson and Roaf had been waiting longer so its very likely that when you have 3 candidates closely matched as these three were that Shields must simply wait his turn. Dawson was named to 6 AP first-team All-Pros, while Shields had 2 such selections. Roaf had 9 total AP All-Pros (3 1st team) compared to Shields with 6 in total (2 1st team). Roaf also had the 2 All-Decade selections in his favour.”
Shields actually was named to nine All Pro teams. If you ask me, that, plus the twelve Pro Bowls, that is a slam dunk Hall of Famer.
“Corey, as I understand it, the argument for Don Coryell is primarily a Contributor’s case, as an offensive innovator. The case against him involves three things: his W-L record is not especially impressive at 111-83-1 (.572 pct.), he had zero success in the postseason, and his defenses were often as bad as his offenses were good.”
A coach can only do so much and take so much credit and blame for how a team does. Don Coryell was seen as a genius, a mastermind. He is credited with being a pioneer of the I-Formation. When Dan Fouts, Joe Gibbs and John Madden say they are all in the Hall of Fame because of Don Coryell, that tells me something: Don Coryell ought to be in there too.
“For Ray Guy, the argument for him revolves around a strong postseason honors profile at 6(3AP)/7/70s and some intangible narrative stuff (hit the Superdome gondola with a punt, the college football punter award is named for him, hang time). The primary case against involves these: he had a reputation for far too many touchbacks and far too few coffin corner pins, his average yards per punt is not especially impressive, and the fact that some HoF voters won’t elect a pure punter regardless of merit since they figure in a limited number of plays per game.”
The way I see it, if somebody is eligible to play the game, no matter what position, they ought to be elected. There are two positions in football where I see the debate begins at #2: Wide Receiver and Punter. Jerry Rice and Ray Guy are pretty much unanimous as the greatest ever to play their position. If Ray Guy is the greatest punter of all time, which I think he is, then I don’t see why he shouldn’t be in. I cannot tell you how many times I saw during this year’s playoffs where the punters really made an impact. Special teams is very important. I have talked to people who have played the game and they will tell you how important it is. Hopefully since he’ll be eligible for the senior pool soon that he will get nominated. Quality over quantity, if you ask me. If Ray Guy only had a limited number of plays per game but he had a big impact, that is all that matters if you ask me.
Al Davis was known for having unique ideas. One of them was taking Ray Guy in the first round. Did it work? In my opinion: Absolutely.
I agree that Ray Guy and Don Coryell belong in the Hall of Fame, and will get into there someday. However, there are arguments (credible or not) against both of their induction, as bachslunch perfectly laid out above. In terms of head coaches, championships (or at least championship appearances) rule the criteria for their induction and Coryell has 0 of both. The fact that Coryell is regarded as an innovator is easily the biggest factor toward him being on that semi-finalist list every year. One of these years, he will make it over the top.
Again with Shields, we aren’t disagreeing with you that he isn’t a hall of famer, we are simply trying to provide our best guess of an explanation of why Will Shields didn’t get in on his first try.
As another thing to consider, Pro Bowls and the All-Pro teams not selected by the Associated Press have been hugely deemphasized in recent years. The Associated Press All-Pro team is now the only one that is published, and since the Pro Bowl Voting is now 1/3 voted in by the fans, there is very little difference between who gets picked year-over-year on the offensive line. Will Shields’ 12 Pro Bowls are no doubt still very impressive but they don’t standout when you compare him to his contemporaries like Matthews (14), McDaniel (12), Roaf (11), Allen (11) and Ogden (11).
If you further compare the AP All-Pro numbers, Roaf made the 1st or 2nd team 9 times, Dawson made the 1st team 6 times, and Shields made the 1st or 2nd team 6 times. If this is part of the criteria they used, and I think it is, then they likely just deferred to the two that had been waiting longer.
While this type of strategy is going to keep some good candidates waiting for a few classes, this is the type of strategy that will really help them to avoid adding to the enormous senior’s backlog later. As it stands now, the best candidates set to hit the senior’s ballot over the next few years are guys like Donnie Shell, Kenny Easley, Todd Christensen, Joe Klecko, Deron Cherry, Joe Jacoby and Roger Craig. These guys are deserving of consideration for sure, but I’d rather see borderline candidates like them forced to the senior committee than guys like Claude Humphrey, L.C. Greenwood, Randy Gradishar, Bob Kuechenburg, Robert Brazile, Cliff Branch, Ray Guy, Lester Hayes and Ken Anderson as has been done in previous years.
Corey:
Re Ray Guy: I don’t have all the particulars, but his candidancy has been very widely discussed in a number of places. Before his stroke, Dr. Z use to discuss Guy’s candidancy quite often. In short, the perception of Guy as the best punter of all time is grossly overstated. His numbers are not only signigicantly worse than virtually every modern day punter (especially when compared to fellow Raider Shane Lechler) but several of his contemporaries as well. It is a classic case of everyone saying Guy was the best without actually analyzing the numbers. For example, according to Pro-football-reference.com, Ray Guy has the 78th best career yards per punt at 42.4 (tied with current Houston Texan Matt Turk). Lechler is the current leader at 47.6. Guy’s best season was 1973 when he averaged 45.3 yards per punt, but that is only tied for the 129th best season in the history of the NFL. In comparison, Lechler has eleven seasons when he averaged more than 45.3, including the second best season of all time when Lechler averaged 51.1 yards (that season should actually be number one because Sammy Baugh’s 51.4 average in 1940 was the result of a lot of quick kicks on third down). Therefore, while Guy is certainly one of the most famous punters of all time, his fellow Raider Shane Lechler is likely the best punter and several other punters can reasonably claim to be better than Guy.
Corey, note well that I’m fine with Ray Guy being elected to the HoF. I can even see the argument that he was likely the best punter of his time.
But greatest all time? That’s a different issue. If you think that, please explain why he’s a greater punter than every one of Sammy Baugh, Tommy Davis (also PK, and someone who I think has a strong HoF argument), Jerrel Wilson, Don Chandler (also PK), Verne Lewellen (also Back, and also has a strong HoF argument), Horace Gillom, Rohn Stark, Rich Camarillo, and Reggie Roby. And please use specifics, like stats that are period adjusted — not intangible narrative points (as described above) or appeals to authority (such as “John Madden says Ray Guy was the greatest punter he ever saw”) or what you might have seen (unless you really know your film study, I’m not going to take seriously arguments such as “I saw every game Guy punted in, and he was the greatest ever.”)
Also note well that regarding both Guy and Coryell, I’m presenting what I understand are likely the primary sticking points against their candidacy to the HoF voters — I’m not necessarily saying I buy into all these points, but there they are. And they’re not trivial issues.
One thing that I’ve noticed while I’ve been looking up numbers on guys like Shields and Roaf is that the crazy run of well-qualified linemen is likely about to come to an end. It came as a huge surprise to me that only 9 linemen that played in 2011 had made 4 or more Pro Bowls. Of these 9, Olin Kruetz (6) has retired, and 5 of the remaining 9 (Steve Hutchinson (7), Matt Birk (6), Jeff Saturday (5), Brian Waters (5) and Kris Dielman (4)) have gone on record of saying that they will consider retirement in the offseason.
That leaves only Andre Gurode (5), Jason Peters (4) and Joe Thomas (4). Andre Gurode is now a backup and Peters/Thomas likely still have several years of playing ahead of them. So despite the fact that Shields, Ogden, Allen, Jones, Pace, Faneca, Mawae and maybe Ruben Brown will be vying for induction over the next several classes, there is a long dry spell of candidates coming behind them.
Corey, like Paul, I don’t at all agree with your thinking that no further modern-era LBs should be voted in until all the deserving Seniors get elected. Three reasons:
–voting in the deserving modern era LBs now makes it easier to consider the Seniors at this position later. It does not block any Seniors from being considered, as Seniors are voted in separately from the modern-era folks. In addition, throwing more LBs into the Senior pool only clogs things up worse for those deserving folks already there.
–let’s assume for the sake of argument that Rickey Jackson and Robert Brazile are roughly equivalent in HoF worth. Electing Jackson now only makes the case better for Brazile down the road. Throwing Jackson into the Senior pool only reinforces the idea that Brazile doesn’t belong.
–if we waited until all the likely deserving Senior LBs got voted in, we would be waiting perhaps as long as 20 years on or more. Consider that OLBs from the 70s and before are criminally under-represented in the HoF, and on that basis alone you’ve got a good case to elect all of Chuck Howley, Maxie Baughan, Robert Brazile, Joe Fortunato, and Larry Grantham. And then there’s Randy Gradishar, an early example of a successful ILB on a 3-4 defense, not to mention some potentially deserving MLBs like Lee Roy Jordan and Tommy Nobis. Waiting until they all get in before electing any more LBs is flat-out unrealistic.
“Also note well that regarding both Guy and Coryell, I’m presenting what I understand are likely the primary sticking points against their candidacy to the HoF voters — I’m not necessarily saying I buy into all these points, but there they are. And they’re not trivial issues.”
In my opinion, not voting somebody in who was a kicker/punter or did something on special teams, that is trivial and I would be obligated to feel that neglecting people because they were special teamers, I don’t agree with that.
Corey: If electing the deserving senior candidates was really a higher priority than the deserving modern-era LBs, they’d have been elected when they were still modern-era candidates. That may not be fair, but that’s the way it is.
BSLO: Of course, there are also probably a number of offensive linemen that haven’t gotten to 4 Pro Bowls yet but will.
I don’t get why they weren’t elected when they were modern era candidates.
Chuck Howley
Six Time Pro Bowl
Five Time All Pro- ALL first team
20/20 Club
Super Bowl V MVP
And for those who like rings, he still got one the very next year.
Maxie Baughan
Nine Pro Bowls.
Somehow did not make the 1960s All Decade Team.
Randy Gradishar
Tackles: 2,049
20/20 club
7 Time Pro Bowl
Multi Time All Pro (I have seen places where he was First Team Two Times and then Five Times)
1978 NFL Defensive Player of the Year
7 Time All Conference
Somehow left off the 1970s All Decade Team
Robert Brazile
7 Time Pro Bowl
Multi Time All Pro (See: Gradishar)
1970s All Decade (Only linebacker on this list not in Canton)
1975 Defensive Rookie of the Year
You’re right, it’s the way it is, but it’s not fair. I would like to know why they weren’t elected as Modern Era candidates. All of them would be excellent choices for senior candidates in my opinion.
Cory it is very simple why those players were not elected as modern candidates; each year there were 15 better players for consideration then election of 5-6. You have already seen how each year brings another 3-5 high quality 1st year players into the 15 finalist pool which means another 3-5 players no longer make that pool EACH YEAR, remember election is all about the NUMBERS (5 in). You would think with 20 years eligible as modern players they should have made the final 15 and been elected, but over that 20 years another 60-80+ players entered the 15 finalist pool for consideration as modern candidates, some of those 60-80 are at the same positions and some even better qualified.
“In my opinion, not voting somebody in who was a kicker/punter or did something on special teams, that is trivial”
Obviously over the 50 years of selecting players to the HOF the voters feel differently since with 260+ players elected there is only one pure special teams player in the HOF: Kicker Jan Stenerud. There remains a very serious and valid debate of the role and place of special teams players and whether they deserve the HOF, again I do not necessarily agree with the view but it is out there and very strong among the voters. It would take a pretty major step by the seniors committee to nominate Guy and run the risk the full committee will still vote him down.
“jerome bettis will definitely get in next year for 2013 since he is the only running back returning from the snubbed list and there is no competition with him as far as the running back position is concerned unless there is a major push to get roger craig into the hall of fame in which he should or the 15 finalist list which i don’t see happening whatsoever”
Bettis did not make the final 10 this year, so I would foresee a move for him as possibly the only RB finalist to make the jump into the final 10. However, with the overall high competition among the final 10 next year (WRs, OL, DL and 1st time candidates in 2013 that we have been debating) I am not sure he gets elected in 2013, more like 2014 when the 1st year class is weaker.
“Obviously over the 50 years of selecting players to the HOF the voters feel differently since with 260+ players elected there is only one pure special teams player in the HOF: Kicker Jan Stenerud.”
Who says they are right?
“Cory it is very simple why those players were not elected as modern candidates; each year there were 15 better players for consideration then election of 5-6. You have already seen how each year brings another 3-5 high quality 1st year players into the 15 finalist pool which means another 3-5 players no longer make that pool EACH YEAR, remember election is all about the NUMBERS (5 in). You would think with 20 years eligible as modern players they should have made the final 15 and been elected, but over that 20 years another 60-80+ players entered the 15 finalist pool for consideration as modern candidates, some of those 60-80 are at the same positions and some even better qualified.”
How do you know every single one was better?
Well it would appear that all the voters over the years have expressed the opinion not to elect Ks and Ps so it would like all that wealth of understanding and history is better then yours
The voters over 20 years decided there were better players, did you review all those elections and participate in those selections and debate?
I wish I did. I feel like there were things I could have contributed if I did. Besides, it’s not like they’ve ever played the game. The voters have played in as many games as I did.
I will gladly debate anybody who thinks kickers and punters are not worthy of Hall of Fame selection. I have some material I have gathered that I think would work in favor of kickers and punters. There is no reason, if you ask me, why some special teamers shouldn’t be in the Hall of Fame.
Special teams determines positions, special teams can win games. Somebody compares special teams to pinch hitting. Technically somebody can avoid pinch hitting in a baseball game but they cannot avoid special teams for at least two plays. Special teams can even win you Super Bowls. It is incredible the impact that it has had and if one of the reasons the Hall of Fame exists is you couldn’t talk about the game without somebody, how could somebody talk about football and its impact without special teams?
Very impressive that Haley was NFC DPOY at two different positions, LOLB with SF and RDE with the Cowboys.
Add me in on the Don Coryell express to the HOF. “Air Coryell” will live forever and its inventor should have a place in Canton.
Howley should’ve been in the HOF a long time ago and the Houston voter on the panel never speaks highly of Brazile.
Too bad for Stanfel, I believe he’s done for good now. Has their ever been a Senior nominated (3) times before, only a handful have been brought back after being rejected the first time.
The following was published on the profootballhof website:
Here are the hard, cold facts. Since 1970, when the Hall of Fame selection process began cutting down to a group of finalists, there are been a total of 258 players, coaches, and contributors who have been finalists. The vast majority, 214, ultimately were elected to the Hall of Fame.
That means 83% of all finalists eventually are enshrined into the Hall. There’s even better news for most of this year’s finalists who didn’t make it. The percentage jumps to 89% for those who are finalists more than once.
So, yes, there’s much disappointment for many after last Saturday’s vote but the truth is that it really becomes an issue of “when” not “if.”
Corey, from the beginning of the finalist era in 1970 to 2005, there were 2 huge problems with the Hall of Fame:
1) They consistently voted in classes of 4-5 inductees instead of the maximum allowed number of 7.
2) They were very biased toward offensive players. Even slam-dunk players like Alan Page (maybe the best DT of all-time) and Paul Krause (the all-time INT leader) were not inducted on the 1st ballot.
As a result, especially at LB and DB, there was an enormous backlog that ensued. With 3-4 good new candidates each year, the previous year’s inductees often got replaced strictly by these first-time eligible players on the finalist list. This led to situations where the finalist lists got very stale and players like Lynn Swann, Tom Mack and Carl Eller lingered on the list for several years, blocking guys like Howley, Baughan, Hanburger and other great linebackers from ever being considered before their modern-era candidacy was up.
This is why I don’t understand the hate that gets spewed about the voting process as it is today. It’s WAY better than it used to be. We are consistently getting classes of 6 or 7 inductees, there are very few guys lingering on the finalist list (Carter and Reed are the only guys that have currently been on the list more than 3 times, and they should both get inducted soon), and for the forseeable future, there are few very deserving players that are headed toward senior backlog hell.
The only thing I wish the hall would do is separate the contributors/owners/coaches from the regular candidates.
I think the best Punter of All-time is a Raider. Shane Lechler!! Ray Guy was great in his time but raw statistic don’t bear out him being “the best”. He got a ton of exposure playing for the highly successful Oakland Raiders, being a punter drafted #1, playing in a Punter Lite era, and for hitting the Super Dome’s TV screen over the field during the 1976 Pro Bowl game, with big mouth Howard Cosell calling the game.
I’m not even sure that Guy was better than his his team’s rival Jerrel Wilson of the Kansas City Chiefs.
Sorry my bad. I should of said “Best Modern Day Punter” was Lechler. HOFer Sammy Baugh was remarkable!! No doubt the footballs are better today for kicking.
Maybe they should limit the number of times a person can be a Finalist to say 3 which would allow up to all of them making it into the HOF?
Tony P, the basketball hall of fame actually has a rule similar to that that I think works relatively well. I don’t know the exact nature of it, but it goes something like if you are a finalist 5 times and still do not get inducted, you must wait 5 years before making the finalist list again. I think this is a smart rule, because it prevents the finalist list from getting too stale, and puts pressure on the voters to induct a deserving player quickly, or risk 5 years of fan/media backlash. This rule helped Chris Mullin get inducted last year, as he was up as a finalist for a 5th consecutive year.
The basketball hall of fame also has some interesting quirks that the pro football hall of fame could learn from. In addition to a senior committee, they have separate committees that look at great players from international leagues, players from the ABA and women players/contributors. Obviously not all of these would apply to football, but I think it would be neat to have say four separate committees that sent candidates straight to a yes/no vote. One that looked strictly at modern-era candidates (and sent say 5-7 players to a final vote), one that looked strictly at senior candidates (and sent 2-3 to a final vote), one that looked at non-players (and sent 1-2 to a final vote) and one that looked strictly at AFL/CFL/maybe even USFL players (and sent 1-2 to a final vote). Similar to the basketball hall of fame, they could also have a cutdown for the modern-era candidates along the way so that the current process wouldn’t be completely scrapped.
I would have no problem with there being bigger classes as long as the hall of fame was covering all of their bases and not diluting the modern-era pool too much. What do you guys think?
If anybody wants to read an out-of-touch, off-base, ridiculous article that will probably just make you mad, check this one out:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/02/11/its-time-to-scrap-the-senior-selection-committee/
That article really did strike a nerve with me. The Senior Selection is actually my favorite part about the Hall of Fame elections.
I mean, if somebody like Cris Carter, Andre Reed or Will Shields by some horrible mistake made it to the Senior’s Ballot and 40 years from now nobody ever heard of them should the Committee be done away with then? Just because today’s generation might know a Charles Haley and not a Chuck Howley doesn’t mean Chuck Howley wasn’t very well known in his day.
” It’s WAY better than it used to be. We are consistently getting classes of 6 or 7 inductees, there are very few guys lingering on the finalist list (Carter and Reed are the only guys that have currently been on the list more than 3 times, and they should both get inducted soon), and for the forseeable future, there are few very deserving players that are headed toward senior backlog hell.
The only thing I wish the hall would do is separate the contributors/owners/coaches from the regular candidates.”
I totally agree with the last part of your statement.
Even if it is way better than it used to be and they way you are describing, it is; but as somebody who is passionate about the subject, the frustration is still there.
i don’t know paul i think jerome bettis is going to get in next year because since the running back position is getting more love that the wide receiver position, that makes jerome bettis the leading candidate to go in next year along wit a wide receiver, a offensive lineman, a defensive player, and a head coach like parcells.
I am not sure Bettis will get in until first the voters sort out the mess at WR plus there seems to be recent push for Defensive players and OL; he did not make final 10 this year but the two WRs and DL/OL players did. But I could see him making the jump into the final 10 for 2013.
I have to agree with Paul, I think that Bettis stands a pretty decent chance at jumping to the final 10, but I don’t think he’ll get in next year. I would say with absolute certainty that there will be at least one lineman inducted next year, and there should be at least one receiver inducted as well. Assuming that the hall will continue its recent trend of inducting a couple of defensive players every year, I’d say that Bettis will be fighting with the other linemen and receivers, plus Bill Parcells for 1-2 spots.
Bettis should make the final 10 though. I believe that three of the first-year guys are definite candidates for that final 10 (Strahan, Allen and Ogden), but Bettis should be helped by the fact that he’s now the best RB candidate out there similar to how Aeneas Williams got a bump this year as the best DB candidate.
Given the weakness of the 2014 class though, I think Bettis should get inducted shortly.
The more I look at it the 2013 class prediction of the 5 modern candidates is going to be very tough, certainly harder then 2012 (where most of us at least got 3 or 4 correct). First we have no idea whether voters are going to get any closer at fixing the WR mess, perhaps it will take one voter or presenter strongly stating the idea that one needs to be elected and who it should be (with the move of Carter into final ten maybe the move is already starting?). Then you throw in the new OL and DL with the current mix of OL and DL and try to sort out whether the returning OL/DL in 2012 final 10 can hold off one or more of the new 1st time DL/OL. Again although cases can (and will be made) for Allen and Strahan as 1st time sections, counter cases and recent history could also indicate non-selection. Just remember how many people saw Parcells and even Shields as slam dunk 1sy year elections in 2012 and we all know how that turned out! My guess is that we will end up with a 2013 final ten consisting of all remaining 2012 final ten members not elected (5) plus the three 1st time players and two others from 2012 fifteen andthus end up with a final ten in 2013 where any five of them could be elected!
given BSLO comments the 2013 class should look like this: WR, OL, DL, Parcells plus 1 OL/DL, with anyone’s best guess as to what OL and DL (or WR!).
With that model I would continue to suggest: Carter, Shields, Haley, Parcells, Allen (but could just as easy see Reed in for Carter and Strahan in for Haley/Shields/Allen) However, I will admit even with the tendency to elect defensive players I am not a big supporter of Strahan as a 1st time selection and recent HOF voting history on OL even makes me uncertain as to Allen although I would favor him as a well deserving 1st time election, just not so sure the voters see it that way. Williams could be a surprise selection if the voters would like to elect two defensive players.
Frankly the 2013 election on the 50th anniversary of the HOF, and with the opening of their newly added wonderful renovated and new spaces, lacks much in the way of “splash’ (regardless of who is considered there are no big name media type players like QBs or RBs), Parcells given his long and distinguished career and history in the league, and his teams, players and coaching tree, along with the New York market/media, could be that “splash”.
and also don’t forget about warren sapp as another defensive player who could jump into the final 10 for 2013 and possibly get into the hall of fame first ballot over guys like haley who the writers won’t induct because of his media problems and also strahan because there has a been a run of defensive tackles getting inducted recently like guys like cortez kennedy and john randle
I’m actually thinking Warren Sapp will wait a bit, perhaps about as long as Cortez Kennedy did. Consider that neither Kennedy nor John Randle were “first ballot,” plus Sapp (like Kennedy) had a less-than-stellar reputation for the consistency of his play. I don’t think that’s a deal-breaker for Sapp and the HoF, but it will delay his election for a few seasons.
I think Strahan should wait a couple times. He’s definetly a HOFer with profile of 4 AP and 7 PB but IMO not the sort of Dick Butkis or Jerry Rice, Slam Dunk 1st time selection .
He had two stupendous years, and a few very good years and than a bunch of lunch bucket ones that don’t stand out. I wonder how much being on the number one NFL Pregame Show will help him? Maybe we should compare to Howie Long’s career? Wow, I wonder if Long’s media exposure helped him? It kind of looks like it to me.
Compared to Long (stats) who only waited a year I can see Strahan easily being a first time selection. I don’t know, I watched him for years and I guess by the way he went about his business I maybe underappreciated his play a little. I put a lot of emphasis on the eyeball test. Wouldn’t want to cheat the guy.
I am uncertain whether voters would select Strahan as a 1st time inductee but I am sure that they will not select Sapp in his 1st year on the ballot. Haley is the next pass rushing DL/LB in line for selection, he could be surpassed by Strahan as the case for Strahan in many ways is stronger then for Haley, but Sapp fails short of both in regards to 1st year election. Sapp will get elected but I foresee 2-4 year wait as there will simply be more deserving players on the 15 finalist list in 2013 and carryover to 2014/2015.
If Bettis goes from out of the Top 10 to inducted in a year, it’ll be because there’s basically no competition at his position compared to WR and the lines.
I would not be surprised if Bettis got elected and likewise I would not be surprised if once again they fail to elect a receiver in 2013.
I’m not so sure that Jerome Bettis’s HoF reputation is as strong as some think. My reading around the ‘net suggests that there are HoF-knowledgeable folks out there who don’t even think Bettis belongs in the HoF. And they have a point up to an extent — Bettis’s HoF argument is pretty much that of a compiler with a long career who stayed around long enough to get high up in career rushing yards. Such folks say that he had only three elite-level seasons out of 13 total (1993, 1996, and 1997, when he finished 2nd, 3rd, and 3rd in the league in rushing — and he only finished in the top 10 two other times, 9th in 1994 and 2000), was pretty much worthless as a pass receiver, was more prone to fumbling that would be good, didn’t have impressive yards per carry numbers, wasn’t exactly a TD scoring machine compared to other RBs season-to-season, and got a lot of yards in part because he played in rush-heavy offenses. One such article is here:
http://www.sports-central.org/sports/2011/02/15/jerome_bettis_vs_herschel_walker.php
More importantly, I can’t imagine such arguments are lost on the HoF voters, either.
I’m on the fence with Bettis. The fact that there are other RBs in the HoF whose arguments pretty much are the compiler-type, such as John Riggins and Larry Csonka, makes the case for Bettis more plausible. And Bettis has a winning personality and a level of “narrative” (for lack of a better word) that will help him in the long run. I think Bettis will be elected eventually, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he waits a while.
The HOF voters are getting so much grief over their selections (see comments by Peter King in SI website yesterday), in my view well deserved due to the logjam at WR, that I can foresee a movement next year to get one elected. I agree with bach there are enough issues regarding the qualifications of Bettis that I do not see a quick election nor can I envision much uproar if he is not elected for several years. There are going to be simply too many qualified candidates on the final 15 and 10 next year even without considering Bettis.
how bout a gut like pete rezlaff as a senior nominee for 2013? He was a great special teams player and wide receiver for the eagles, i don’t see why he should be a senior nominee for next year considering the lack of special team players in the hall of fame
I wouldn’t be objected to seeing Pete Retzlaff since he definitely has an argument. He has 5 Pro Bowls but only 1 first team All Pro. However, the thought of another former Eagle, Al Wistert, having to wait until 2014 or beyond is a very scary thought if you ask me. I cannot stress enough how much I would love to see him as a senior nominee for 2013.
Both Butler and Stanfel deserved to be nominees if you ask me and I think both should have gotten in. However, I felt that others, such as Wistert and Johnny Robinson, deserved it more.
The concern I see with Retzlaff is that there is plenty of debate as to whether he is even the best receiver senior candidate from his era as others may prefer to support Billy Howton or Mac Speedie. The you also have stronger candidates from other positions in the 50s era and then better receiver candidates from the 60s and 70s.
Corey, re Pete Retzlaff, I can certainly see a HoF argument in his favor, especially since he put up some of his excellent seasons as a TE and in fact played about half his career or so as such. I wasn’t aware that he played on special teams, but if he did and did so well, that’s another feather in his proverbial cap. Yes, I’m all for Retzlaff for the HoF.
That being said, Paul has an excellent point about Al Wistert. No question in my mind that he belongs in the HoF and at age 91 (or thereabouts), he’s still alive to enjoy the honor should it come his way. If it were mine, I’d make him priority #1 among Seniors for that reason alone. Les Richter unfortunately wasn’t so lucky when he finally got in.
Well Retzlaff was a tight end in addition to being a receiver. Studying up on him I had always perceived him to be a tight end.
I think both Billy Howton and Billy Wilson are two very worthy receivers from that time as well the receivers you could argue from the 1960s and 1970s, with Cliff Branch leading the pack for me.
In any case though, if Retzlaff is classified as a tight end does that make things different at all?
I was going to mention Pete Retzlaff a little while ago in my post about the lack of good senior candidates at QB, RB and TE. I personally think that if the hall of fame views him as primarily a tight end (he spent more time at split end, but appeared to have several of his best years late in his career as a TE), he could have a decent chance at getting nominated soon. If you consider him a tight end, he is probably the best senior candidate at the position, ahead of others like Riley Odoms and Raymond Chester.
As for Bettis / Sapp, I don’t think that either player will have to wait longer than 4-5 years for induction. This is not because I don’t believe better candidates are out there, but moreso because there just isn’t a lot of competition coming up at their positions. Bettis appears to have established himself ahead of Roger Craig and Terrell Davis, so he’s probably looking at a good 5-6 year run as the top RB in the pecking order (until of course LaDainian Tomlinson retires).
Sapp is in a similar position in that the backlog of front seven players has drastically decreased over the past few years. He’ll be up against Strahan, Haley and Greene next year, but if 1-2 of those guys get in, he’ll be near the head of the conversation for awhile. I don’t consider Karl Mecklenburg, Clay Matthews, Neil Smith or any of the other eligible front seven players to be better options than Sapp. The only serious front seven candidates coming up are Derrick Brooks, Junior Seau, Jason Taylor and maybe Zach Thomas, none of whom are defensive tackles, so it’s hard to say if those guys will block Sapp anyway.
In closing, I agree that Bettis and Sapp are overrated, and should have to wait a bit. Unfortunately though, a lack of competition at their positions may well work in their favour.
I think considering Pete Retzlaff as a TE strengthens his case, as he has very little HoF Senior snub competition when seen as such (Jerry Smith primarily).
I would say Sapp gets elected in 2014 the latest. Here’s why.
They will look at Sapp being a huge catalyst for one of the best defense’s in recent memory: The 2002 Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers.
They will look at him being a Defensive Player of the Year (1999).
They will look at those seven Pro Bowls, five of them he started.
They will look at the fact that he made not one but two All Decade Teams. One All Decade really strengthens one argument for the Hall of Fame. Two of them punches somebody’s ticket if you ask me.
He was a four time first team All Pro.
My guess is Sapp will go in 2013 and Strahan 2014 or vice versa.
The man checks all the boxes.
As for Bettis, it seems to me the voters have had no trouble getting Faulk and then Martin in. My guess is with him being top of the line with running backs, he will get elected in 2013 and I would say deservedly so. The logjam at wide receiver is still prevalent. The logjam at offensive line did free up this year by the election of Dawson and Roaf, but here come Allen and Ogden in 2013 and Pace and Jones in 2014. Is Will Shields going to be swept under the rug again for a more few years?
A logjam at running back? Where? Not any longer. While it is possible, of course, Bettis may have to wait another year, I anticipate that he will indeed be elected in 2013.
There is no requirement that HOF voters select the next RB or need a RB in the class of 2013 or 2014. Bettis has to complete with another 14 modern candidates, including the five returning final 10 from 2012 and four very strong new candidates in 2013 – his case is no stronger then any of those nine for a spot in the final 5 in 2013! Yes he will get elected eventually but I seriously doubt he is going to replace any of those five players to move from 10-15 rank to top 5 in 2013 or even in 2014. I really think given all the controversy that there will finally be a move to elect a WR, perhaps with Carter’s jump from final 15 to final 10 in 2012 election the first step may have occurred.
As to Sapp, he will lose votes to Strahan, and his qualifications (all pro, pro bowls and SBs) are still weaker then the other DL and OL players. I do not view him as a first time selection (just look at how many players in recent years with even better qualifications have not been selected their first year), his case for a 1st time selection is weaker then Allen and Stranhan and perhaps even Ogden. Yes he will get elected but like many other qualified candidates in recent years it will take a few years.
How hard is it for people to look at the recent elections and reality of only 5 slots each year and realize the place and number of 1st time elections is very very limited. The vast majority of elected players over the years are not 1st time selections. In 2013 it is possible for Allen and/or Strahan to go in as 1st time selections, but not likely and no way Sapp jumps those two or we get three 1st time selections – the quality of the final 15 and the debates to get them elected is just too high for Sapp to overcome in the next few years.
Finally this complaining about not electing a player or Parcells in their first year represents some type of statement that they are not deserving for HOF is driving me crazy. The most frustrating, overstated and commonly misunderstood aspect of these elections is the value or importance some people place on 1st time selections. Folks there simply are not enough slots to elect deserving candidates and every qualified player appearing on the ballot as a 1st time candidate. Some simply have to wait their turn. If Carter, Shields or Parcells were elected in 2012 the supporters of Roaf, Doleman, Kennedy or Dawson would be screaming again (having already do so every past election when they missed out). I see very little anger over Shields, which makes me think that the media and fans pushing for Carter (ESPN) and Parcells (New York) with the media “faning the flames” over these two are a big part of the problem. And no change to the number of voters, who the voters are, will stop deserving players from having to wait their turn unless the HOF decides to expand the 5 modern slots to 6, 7, 8….???????
“I think considering Pete Retzlaff as a TE strengthens his case, as he has very little HoF Senior snub competition when seen as such (Jerry Smith primarily).”
Perhaps, but his case is still weaker then other players from his era, and much more weaker then deserving senior candidates from the 1960s and 1970s.
My short list for seniors candidates would look like this:
RG – Jerry Kramer 5/3/60’s (2012 finalist)
G – Bob Keuchenberg 2/6/70s 80s (2012 finalist)
C – Mick Tingelhoff 5/6/60’s-70’s
LT – Jim Tyrer 6/9/60-70’s
QB – Ken Anderson 3/4/70s/80s (2012 finalist)
WR – Drew Pearson 3/3/70’s
WR – Cliff Branch 4/4 – 70s/80s (2012 finalist)
RDT – Roger Brown 2/6/60’s (2012 finalist)
NT – Curly Culp 1/6/70’s (2012 finalist)
LDE – L.C.Greenwood 2/6/70’s
DE – Claude Humphrey 5/6/1970s (2012 finalist)
ROLB – Robert Brazile 2/7/70’s-80’s
RLB – Maxie Baughan 2/9/60’s (2012 finalist)
RILB – Randy Gradishar 2/7/70’s-80’s
MLB – Tommy Nobis 1/5/60’s-70’s (2012 finalist)
LLB – Joe Fortunato 3/5/50’s-60’s
LLB – Chuck Howley 5/6/60’s-70’s (2012 finalist)
LB- Mike Curtis 2/4/60s-70s (2012 finalist)
LB- Dave Robinson 2/3 60s/70s (2012 finalist)
LCB – Lemar Parrish 1/8/70’s
CB/S – Eddie Meador 2/6/60’s (2012 finalist)
CB – Lester Hayes 1/5/70s 80s (2012 finalist)
S – Johnny Robinson 6/7/60’s (2012 finalist)
SS/FS – Dick Anderson 2/3/70’s
SS/FS – Jake Scott 2/5/70’s
FS – Cliff Harris 3/6/70’s (2012 finalist)
Top Five
C – Mick Tingelhoff 5/6/60’s-70’s
LT – Jim Tyrer 6/9/60-70’s
WR – Cliff Branch 4/4 – 70s/80s (2012 finalist)
LLB – Chuck Howley 5/6/60’s-70’s (2012 finalist)
S – Johnny Robinson 6/7/60’s (2012 finalist)
“There is no requirement that HOF voters select the next RB or need a RB in the class of 2013 or 2014. Bettis has to complete with another 14 modern candidates, including the five returning final 10 from 2012 and four very strong new candidates in 2013 – his case is no stronger then any of those nine for a spot in the final 5 in 2013!”
Obviously, there is no requirement. However, I would think, at least me anyway, that they’ll still get Bettis in. It could be a pressure thing or maybe somehow they were able to work out the running back problem.
When comparing Sapp to other defensive linemen, I just checked the finalist list and there’s only one defensive lineman on that list. That was Cortez Kennedy, who was elected.
“How hard is it for people to look at the recent elections and reality of only 5 slots each year and realize the place and number of 1st time elections is very very limited. The vast majority of elected players over the years are not 1st time selections. In 2013 it is possible for Allen and/or Strahan to go in as 1st time selections, but not likely and no way Sapp jumps those two or we get three 1st time selections – the quality of the final 15 and the debates to get them elected is just too high for Sapp to overcome in the next few years.”
I do realize this. However, I don’t like the thought of somebody wishing to keep on the ballot for another year just because it is their first year on the ballot. I’m not a fan of political games. I’m not saying everybody is like this but there are people out there like that.
I understand only five modern era candidates can get in at a time. What I don’t understand is people who choose to bypass somebody on the first ballot for the sake of them being on the first ballot.
“Top Five
C – Mick Tingelhoff 5/6/60’s-70’s
LT – Jim Tyrer 6/9/60-70’s
WR – Cliff Branch 4/4 – 70s/80s (2012 finalist)
LLB – Chuck Howley 5/6/60’s-70’s (2012 finalist)
S – Johnny Robinson 6/7/60’s (2012 finalist)”
All good choices. Not my top five but I have no problem with any of them. I cannot voice my opinion about Robinson enough and I will gladly email every Senior Committee member asking for them to nominate him. He should have been elected in the 1980s if you ask me.
My personal top five
#5 Randy Gradishar
#4 Chuck Howley
#3 Jerry Kramer
#2 Al Wistert
#1 Johnny Robinson
Of your list, Meador, Baughan and Brazile just miss my top five but I would be fine with any of them being nominated.
“However, I don’t like the thought of somebody wishing to keep on the ballot for another year just because it is their first year on the ballot. I’m not a fan of political games. I’m not saying everybody is like this but there are people out there like that. ”
I am not so sure it a political game, but that many voters feel that the standard for 1st time election should be higher, something like along the best of all time at their position or perhaps the best from their era. I certainly not feel that the voters will view Sapp either way.
I hope guys like Sterling Sharpe, Terrell Davis, and Kenny Easley make it to the semifinalists. They had short careers, but played very well when healthy. That is like Revis retiring in 3 seasons.
sterling sharpe has an excellent chance of being a semi-finalist, very underrated receiver even though he had a short career, don’t know if he will ever get in the hall of fame though. I think mick tingelhoff has an excellent chance of being a senior nominee for 2013, we need more offensive lineman in the hall
Winston Hill should be up for nominee someday.
Sterling Sharpe has no chance until he reaches Senior nominee status. Andre Reed, Tim brown and Cris Carter can’t get in…and soon You will add Marvin Harrison, Isaac Bruce, Torrey Holt. That doesn’t even count guys like Jimmy Smith and Rod Smith who will probably never get consideration although I believe both were very close to HOF status.
Sterling Sharpe was awesome for a short period of time, but put him up against these guys: Stanley Morgan, Mark Clayton, Harold Carmichael, Cliff Branch, Herman Moore, Otis taylor, Drew Pearson, Irving Fryar and Harold Jackson. Only Cliff Branch got even a sniff of the HOF and you could argue that all of these guys had better short or long careers than Sterling Sharpe.
And don’t forget in about 5-6 or so seasons, Hines Ward, Randy Moss, and Terrell Owens will be on it too.
“Winston Hill should be up for nominee someday.”
Perhaps but the current list includes at least 20+ players with better qualifications
“When comparing Sapp to other defensive linemen, I just checked the finalist list and there’s only one defensive lineman on that list.”
Haley is a DL and with the addition of Strahan in 2013 there will be those two DL who are both going to get in before Sapp.
“However, I don’t like the thought of somebody wishing to keep on the ballot for another year just because it is their first year on the ballot.”
So you would prefer that a candidate that has been on the ballot for several years as a finalist has to wait yet another year simply because another 1st time player comes on the ballot has just has to be elected since he is deemed a clear HOFer while the other player (also deemed a clear HOFer by appearing on the final 15 or 10 list in previous years) gets rejected yet again? That is exactly how deserving players stay on the final 15 list for years before election.
“I understand only five modern era candidates can get in at a time. What I don’t understand is people who choose to bypass somebody on the first ballot for the sake of them being on the first ballot.”
Because there are also other just as deserving candidates on the ballot who should get elected but instead as passed over year after year. So this year because Parcells and Sheilds are “clearly HOFers” they should get in but Roaf and Kennedy wait another year even though they are also considered “clearly HOFers”?
Again the only clear and effective solution is not to replace, rotate or increase HOF voters – as the same potential bias, logjams, indecision, and voting blocks can occur – but increase the number of modern slots to 6 or 7 and have completely separate elections for senior candidates and contributors, which what other HOFs including baseball already do.
Or maybe rotate the slots available each year: even year (2014) have 7 modern slots and odd years (2015) have 5 modern, 2 senior/contributor
Ok. However, Haley was also a linebacker and that was the first thing I saw him as.
“So you would prefer that a candidate that has been on the ballot for several years as a finalist has to wait yet another year simply because another 1st time player comes on the ballot has just has to be elected since he is deemed a clear HOFer while the other player (also deemed a clear HOFer by appearing on the final 15 or 10 list in previous years) gets rejected yet again? That is exactly how deserving players stay on the final 15 list for years before election”
All I said is that I don’t think somebody should wait for the sake of waiting. However, if somebody who is on the ballot for the first time is more worthy than somebody who is on there maybe the third or fourth time and there is just one spot left, I would go with the first timer.
““I understand only five modern era candidates can get in at a time. What I don’t understand is people who choose to bypass somebody on the first ballot for the sake of them being on the first ballot.”
Because there are also other just as deserving candidates on the ballot who should get elected but instead as passed over year after year. So this year because Parcells and Sheilds are “clearly HOFers” they should get in but Roaf and Kennedy wait another year even though they are also considered “clearly HOFers”?”
Well why Kennedy and Roaf, especially the latter, had to wait, confuses me. I would have elected Roaf over Dent last year; and this is coming from a Bears fan.
how bout the offensive lineman that could be up for induction for 2013 between larry allen and johnathan ogden? which one of these guys is more likely to get in first-ballot for 2013? Personally for me i thought ogden was the better player career wise but larry allen is not too far behind also with his career numbers
“All I said is that I don’t think somebody should wait for the sake of waiting. However, if somebody who is on the ballot for the first time is more worthy than somebody who is on there maybe the third or fourth time and there is just one spot left, I would go with the first timer.”
The issue here is “more worthy” as you and I may have different opinions of players on a given 15 finalist ballot as to who is more worthy, in this selection process you have 44 people often with very different views of who is more worthy, especially when comparing coaches with players or players like OL, DL, and LB often with similar or very few stats to separate them. Also there is no way for the voters to know which player should take that one spot left. They voter for their top 10 and then from that list their top 5, each voter could very well make that decision to select one player over another, but the result is determined from 44 such votes not just one.
As for Parcells I would a very hard time electing him as a 1st time candidate other a well deserving player like Dawson or Kennedy who have been passed over year after year. Unless you are one of the best of all time I can see the logic in picking those candidates deserving and already on the ballot. And this idea that by not selecting Parcells is somehow a message from HOF voters that he is not worthy of the HOF is simply stupid. That might apply if the number of available slots was unlimited or larger, but with onloy 5 slots deserving candidates including 1st time candidates are always going to be left off.
“Well why Kennedy and Roaf, especially the latter, had to wait, confuses me. I would have elected Roaf over Dent last year; and this is coming from a Bears fan.”
It really is not that confusing with 44 voters it only takes a few to select Dent over Kennedy and/or Roaf to result in Dent getting elected. Frankly for many of these players the determination of the quality of qualifications is very subjective. I have seen many strong very convincing cases made for each of Dent, Kennedy and Roaf.
As to Ogden vs Allen their career “numbers” are very similar: Ogden 9/11, 2000s team, SB and Allen 7/11, 1990s & 2000s teams, SB. Some will point out that Allen made all pro/pro bowls at multiple positions as a difference plus the two decade teams. As to election as 1st time nominees, it is much harder to say since recent OL also with very similar “numbers” have not been selected as 1st time nominees (McDaniel, Roaf, Shields). I would say Allen has a chance but with Allen, Ogden and Shields on the final 15 list there could be vote splitting keeping them out or allow Shields to slip pass them into election. The logjam at OL, along with the mess at WR, and the introduction of Strahan and Sapp with Haley (all DL) will drive the uncertainty and perhaps resulting surprises yet again with the 2013 election. I know whom I would elect, trying to predict the individual and collective thoughts and actions of 44 voters is getting much harder.
Just a quick note — Bill Parcells is actually a 3-time finalist (he was also in 2001 and 2002 when there was no waiting period for coaches), though this is the first time he has been eligible when the recent “5 years retired” rule was instituted. He likely was not considered to be “really retired” in his first two years as finalist and thus not elected at the time — and it turns out he wasn’t retired.
Besides, it’s not unusual to have coaches wait a bit — note well that Bill Walsh and Sid Gillman were not elected until their 2nd time as finalist, Marv Levy and Weeb Ewbank until their 3rd time, and George Allen and Bud Grant until their 4th time — and I don’t see why Parcells should be an exception.
With all of the future and current O-lineman “in-play” for the HOF. Will Joe Jacoby ever get any more consideration. He seemed so close a few years ago. now he is not even mentioned. I know he and Grimm played different positions, but most Redskins fans opinions (and some writers) have said that Jacoby was a better lineman than Grimm.
Someone mentioned Winston Hill earlier and I think that he would make a great senior nominee. I thought he should have been the AFL nominee the year that Floyd Little was elected. To me there is a list of senior nominees that i cannot believe did not get elected during their original nominee process.
1. Johnny Robinson
2. Jerry Kramer
3. Randy Gradishar
4. Lester Hayes
5. Pete Retzlaff
6. Chuck Howley
7. L.C. Greenwood
8. Mike Curtis
9. Winston Hill
10. Lemar Parrish
These are some of the best players of their ERA and any other era.
Does anyone have a list of notable players and the years when they first become eligible for the HOF?
Billy, interesting issue re Joe Jacoby — his postseason honors profile of 3(2AP)/4/80s is virtually identical to three OT peers, Mike Kenn at 3(2AP)/5/none and Marvin Powell at 3(3AP)/5/none and Leon Gray at 3(3AP)/4/none. And Jim Lachey is pretty close here too at 3(3AP)/3/none. Unless there’s a good film-study-based reason to think so, it’s unclear if Jacoby is more HoF qualified than these other players.
“It really is not that confusing with 44 voters it only takes a few to select Dent over Kennedy and/or Roaf to result in Dent getting elected. Frankly for many of these players the determination of the quality of qualifications is very subjective. I have seen many strong very convincing cases made for each of Dent, Kennedy and Roaf.”
Who says the voters were right? You seem to always think they were; and that is fine but I cannot say they are always are.
Nice list, Billy. I agree with #1.
There really is not much difference between Jacoby and Kenn, Powell, Gray and Lachey. The only difference is that the 80’s Redskins are like the 70’s Dolphins, 60’s Browns, 90’s Cowboys. One of the best lines of All-time and supposedly Jacoby was the best and the leader of that group. I remember reading one time that both Reggie White and Fred Dean said that Jacoby was the “best lieman they ever went against.”
Corey: Although I do not always agree with the voters I think for the most part over the years they get it right eventually…my point is that I understand their line of thinking and can appreciate given the subjective nature of this voting that once you mix in the opinions of 44 voters you can get final votes that may be frustrating and confusing. Especially in regards to this whole silly debate about 1st time elections or the order which players should be elected – 44 voters are never going to collectively agree on many of those decisions.
Dr. Phil you will final the list of 1st time elected on the pro football HOF website. Also list of all finalists by year.
If Jason Witten averages 68 receptions a season for the next 3 seasons, which is plausible, he will have 900 receptions for a career. It would be hard for the Hall of Fame to reject that, along with his current resume of 7/3/none(3rd place easily though, behind two of the top ten Tight Ends of all time). As long as he stays healthy, he will have a great at that. Last five seasons hasn’t had less than 79. Even if he averages 42 per game next seasons, that is 822 for a career.
how bout roger craig, now here is one runnine back who is deserving for the hall of fame but somehow got lost in the shuffle because of marshall faulk and some of the other running backs getting inducted but roger craig should definitely get into the hall of fame once the running back position clears up after bettis and tomlinson gets in, he is definitely more deserving than terrell davis and some of those short career running backs
Although I believe Craig is deserving there is a long line of more deserving players all ready from the remaining 15 finalists in 2012 plus numerous upcoming 1st year players over the next several years, it may be quite sometime (or as a senior candidate) before he ever gets elected. Some will debate that there are already enough RBs from his era and a large number of RBs in the HOF when many other positions are so poorly represented.
Paul
i have two names for the list Jim Tyrer and Ed Budde
Tyrer is on my list already, I will look into Budde
Billy re this: “The only difference is that the 80?s Redskins are like the 70?s Dolphins, 60?s Browns, 90?s Cowboys. One of the best lines of All-time and supposedly Jacoby was the best and the leader of that group,” am thinking there’s not much difference between this statement and “Jacoby was a “Hog” and that makes him more deserving.” If I’m thinking that’s right, I’m not so swayed by that argument — it’s essentially saying that a fancy nickname makes the difference.
However, if good quality film study says Jacoby was better than Kenn, Powell, Gray, and Lachey, that could well be different. Would be interested to know the answer here.
how bout harold carmichael for a senior nominee next year, now that will be something right there as he was one of the greatest receivers to come out of the that first modern-era players along with cliff branch, bob hayes, and many others.
For me Harold Carmichael falls into a large group of 1970s/early 80s WRs not yet selected to the HOF, but as a potential senior candidate I would place him behind the 1970s/early 80s WRs Branch and Drew Pearson. Overall I would rank his HOF qualifications as weak and marginal. Given the current depth and quality of an existing senior candidate pool of 20+ players (that already includes Branch and Pearson) I would not foresee any near future selection of Carmichael. With the interest in shoring up the defense selections, and the number of those players already finalist for senior nominations I would be willing to guess that the 2013 seniors include LB or DBs; among the possibilities:
RLB – Maxie Baughan 2/9/60’s (2012 finalist)
RILB – Randy Gradishar 2/7/70’s-80’s
MLB – Tommy Nobis 1/5/60’s-70’s (2012 finalist)
LLB – Chuck Howley 5/6/60’s-70’s (2012 finalist)
LB- Mike Curtis 2/4/60s-70s (2012 finalist)
LB- Dave Robinson 2/3 60s/70s (2012 finalist)
CB/S – Eddie Meador 2/6/60’s (2012 finalist)
CB – Lester Hayes 1/5/70s 80s (2012 finalist)
S – Johnny Robinson 6/7/60’s (2012 finalist)
FS – Cliff Harris 3/6/70’s (2012 finalist)
I am also thinking the focus will shift away from the 1940s/50s era to the decades of the 1960s and 1970s.
I would personally rather see Roger Craig get in before Jerome Bettis. While there are a lot of running backs from his era already inducted, I think that Craig’s inclusion on the 1980’s All-Decade team and his versatility as a great runner, receiver and blocker (which were almost unparalleled at the time) put him a step above Bettis who lacked versatility and a prolonged run of dominance.
I think Joe Jacoby’s window to get in as a modern-era candidate has passed. He was able to become a semi-finalist a couple of times, but up against the incredible resumes of many of the offensive linemen that have just become or will soon become eligible, he just doesn’t measure up. He had a very dominant stretch at the beginning of his career from 1981-1987, but after that, injuries and inconsistency basically followed him around until his retirement in 1993. I’m not sure if him having a very similar resume to Russ Grimm helps or hinders him. On one hand, it suggests that if Grimm was worthy of induction, then so is Jacoby. On the other hand though, the Hogs seem to be more famous as a unit, than for their individual parts. If that thinking prevails, then maybe voters will take the stance that inducting one Hog is enough.
Perhaps a better case could be made for Craig but first he needs to get on the finalist list so his qualifications can be presented and debated. Although I agree that perhaps Bettis does not have the strongest case he is 4th on the all time rushing attempts list and 6th in career yards, 2/6 awards, a SB, and with eight 1,000 years seasons in a 13 year career – hard to argue against his election at some point in the next few years (especially given the lack of RBs on the ballot the next several years). If Craig does not get on the finalist list soon he will face competition from LT and perhaps E James and others.
Paul, I would like you to take a good hard look at Al Wistert and see where he fits on your list.
4/1/40s. The man is only a one time Pro Bowler because his final season was the first Pro Bowl. There is no doubt in my mind he would have made more if he stuck around.
which qbs would make great senior nominees
I have a longer list with Wistert on it, I just do not view him as a top 20 senior
The QBs I have on the longer list are Brodie, Ken Anderson, and Lamonica.
And to note this is not really my list but one prepared from the input, discussions and similar lists posted here over the last few years.
Here are all of them:
Pro Football HOF Senior Candidates
2013 Revised List
RT – Al Wistert 4/1/40’s
RT – George Kunz 1/8/60’s-70’s
RG – Walt Sweeney 2/9/60’s-70’s
G – Ed Buttle 3/7/60s
RG – Jerry Kramer 5/3/60’s (2012 finalist)
G – Bob Keuchenberg 2/6/70s 80s (2012 finalist)
C – Mick Tingelhoff 5/6/60’s-70’s
LT – Jim Tyrer 6/9/60-70’s
LT – Winston Hill 4/4/60/70’s
QB – Ken Anderson 3/4/70s/80s (2012 finalist)
QB – John Brodie 1/2/60-70’s
QB – Darle Lamonica 2/4/60’s
RB/FB – Chuck Foreman 1/5/70?s
FB – Rick Casares 1/5/50?s-60?s
FB – Don Perkins 1/6/60?s
RE – Billy Wilson 1/6/50’s
E – Billy Howton 2/4/50’s-60’s
SE – Pete Retzlaff 1/5/60’s
WR – Otis Taylor 2/3/60’s-70’s
WR – Harold Carmichael 0/4/70’s
WR – Drew Pearson 3/3/70’s
WR – Harold Jackson 1/5/70’s-80’s
WR – Cliff Branch 4/4 – 70s/80s (2012 finalist)
LE – Mac Speedie 3/2/40’s-50’s
LE – Lavvie Dilweg 5/0/20’s-30’s
DEFENSE
RDE – Harvey Martin 1/4/70’s-80’s
RDE – Jim Marshall 0/2/60’s-70’s
RDT – Roger Brown 2/6/60’s (2012 finalist)
NT – Curly Culp 1/6/70’s (2012 finalist)
LDE – L.C.Greenwood 2/6/70’s
LDE – Gene Brito 3/5/50’s
DE – Claude Humphrey 5/6/1970s (2012 finalist)
DT – Alex Karras 0/4 60s (2012 finalist)
ROLB – Robert Brazile 2/7/70’s-80’s
RLB – Maxie Baughan 2/9/60’s (2012 finalist)
RILB – Randy Gradishar 2/7/70’s-80’s
MLB – Bill Bergey 2/5/70?s
MLB – Tommy Nobis 1/5/60’s-70’s (2012 finalist)
LLB – Joe Fortunato 3/5/50’s-60’s
LLB – Chuck Howley 5/6/60’s-70’s (2012 finalist)
LB- Mike Curtis 2/4/60s-70s (2012 finalist)
LB- Dave Robinson 2/3 60s/70s (2012 finalist)
CB/R – Abe Woodson 2/5/60’s
LCB – Lemar Parrish 1/8/70’s
LCB – Erich Barnes 1/6/60’s
CB/S – Eddie Meador 2/6/60’s (2012 finalist)
CB – Lester Hayes 1/5/70s 80s (2012 finalist)
S – Johnny Robinson 6/7/60’s (2012 finalist)
SS/FS – Dick Anderson 2/3/70’s
SS/FS – Jake Scott 2/5/70’s
FS – Cliff Harris 3/6/70’s (2012 finalist)
P – Ray Guy 6/7/70s 80s (2012 finalist)
————————————————————-
Great AFL or AFL/NFL Players deserving HOF consideration:
QB – John Hadl 1/6/60’s-70’s
LT – Winston Hill 0/8/60/70’s
C/LB – E.J. Holub 2/5/60?s
LG – Ed Budde 2/7/60’s-70’s
LDE- Jerry Mays 2/7/60’s-70’s
S – Goose Gonsoulin 2/5/60?s
how bout ken stabler for a senior nominee for the QBS? I think he would be on that list also if his career was not marginalized by only that one super bowl victory he had in 1976
He al;so has more career INTs then TDS, but I suppose he could be added although my feeling is that there are enough QBs from the 1970s already in the HOF and personally I would select Ken Anderson before Stabler.
“I have a longer list with Wistert on it, I just do not view him as a top 20 senior”
Overall, where would you put him? I find this interesting because if you ask me he is my number two senior behind only Johnny Robinson.
I do agree with you on Stabler.
I would put him somewhere between 15 -25, the problem is that once you get a top 10 above that there is so little difference among the players. Personally for me there are too many other seniors with more distinguished careers thus more deserving including numerous players with several all pro/pro bowl awards. As I listed previously he is not in my top 20 and thus not in my top 5.
I guess we will have to agree to disagree on that then.
can i just say paul that you and i agree on senior nominees
I have no major issues with Wistert it is just that to me there are many other more deserving players. And one other major concern for me is that players from the 1940s and 1950s of nominated are getting harder to elect. I would rather see a slot go to a player with a greater chance of election, and I know this not fair or a reflection on Wistert, but with only two slots per year and perhaps 15-20 more or equally qualified players, I would rather not see a slot wasted by a non-election, and I think the seniors committee is coming to realize this issue and will be much more safer with their future senior selections (another reason why I would guess Kramer will not be a senior nominee anytime soon since he has already been turned down before both as a modern and senior candidate, whereas most the senior candidates have not even had one chance at it).
There is ALWAYS that chance that a slot will get wasted on a non-election. It does not matter who it is. If somebody is a senior nominee, there is always that chance of rejection. I think the chances for Wistert are very high.
If age was one of the main factors why Butler and Stanfel were nominees, then Wistert has both of them beat.
Yet it’s not just a sentimental thing either.
An all decade team puts somebody in great position for the Hall of Fame, if you ask me. Wistert had that.
The man was an eight time All Pro and first team four times.
He had leadership intangibles. He captained not one but two Eagles championship teams that won in 1948 and 1949. They are the only repeat champions to ever shut out their opponents in both games.
It’s not like he was some beefed up left tackle like a Willie Roaf or Jonathan Ogden. He did all of this with small size and height.
Not everybody who has their number retired deserves to go in; but when I think of the long history of the Eagles and that Wistert is one of only seven numbers retired, that tells me the kind of impact that he made.
Those who are against Wistert I would like to see make a good argument. I think the positives easily outweigh the negatives. If it is a lack of longevity, it hasn’t stopped other players who retired at an early agre from getting in. Nor should it stop Wistert.
I think Wistert is a safe selection and the only conclusion I can come up with is that he should have been inducted back in the 1960s.
There is a risk with everything in life. Everything. Even senior candidates who have a resume that would lead one to think they are sure fire Hall of Famers, there is always that chance that there will be eight or more who vote no. Only 44 people know what goes on in there. The senior committee drew criticism for selecting Floyd Little, whom many perceived to be weak and undeserving; but got in anyway. Then they selected Stanfel a second time, who, if you ask me, should have gotten in; but then failed to get 80%.
While others are not too far behind, if you ask me, there is only one senior candidate who I think is more deserving or qualified than Al Wistert is; and as I’ve said time and time again, he wore #42 for Kansas City.
As more time goes by I think the risks with nominating a senior candidate from the 1940s and 1950s is going to get higher. The fact remains that there are many senior players from the 1960s and 1970s just as deserving as Wistert. I do not believe he is a safe or strong selection or he would have been nominated already.
I don’t know how you can’t apply that to other people. Did you feel the same way about Butler?
I think the fact that Wistert is here with us as opposed to being posthumously inducted it may help.
I personally think he is one of the strongest cases out there and hopefully it will only take a little bit of research to realize he should have been in decades ago.
Corey Actually I do agree its the exact same thing with butler as with wistert and i think its best to induct him before it gets too late
It’s not a matter of “Before it’s too late.” A Hall of Famer is a Hall of Famer but it certainly would be nice if he was around for it.
two names i would like to add are
G- Ken Gray 6/2
T- Ernie McMillan 4/0
I do think Butler’s shorter career in the 1950s hurt his chances for election in front of the entire 44 voters. The voting committee has changed over the last several years with many new members who are likely to be much less familiar with careers from the 1950s and earlier especially with OL players like Wistert with limited stats or film to look over. If Wistert was such a certain HOF why has he not been a finalist over the last 40+ years? Because clearly the seniors committee has deemed other players more deserving. If is really hard (and getting harder) for the seniors committee to justify nominating a player from the per 1960s eras, especially with only two slots they are leaving many more deserving players from the 1970s and 1980s on the sideline. I think you will see the seniors committee getting much more safer and conservative with their selections because if the full committee continues to turn down senior candidates the question will be raised why have two slots of seniors instead of going back to the previous rules that only allowed one.
“I do think Butler’s shorter career in the 1950s hurt his chances for election in front of the entire 44 voters.”
Only it didn’t. He got elected.
“The voting committee has changed over the last several years with many new members who are likely to be much less familiar with careers from the 1950s and earlier especially with OL players like Wistert with limited stats or film to look over.”
Except that despite the limited stats or film, there is a lot on Wistert’s resume that is available. Including eight all pro selections and four first team all pros.
“If Wistert was such a certain HOF why has he not been a finalist over the last 40+ years?”
Who knows what on Earth they are thinking.
“Because clearly the seniors committee has deemed other players more deserving.”
Oh yeah, Doak Walker, Frank Gatski, George Musso, Floyd Little, Lou Rymkus- So much more deserving than Wistert, right?
“If is really hard (and getting harder) for the seniors committee to justify nominating a player from the per 1960s eras, especially with only two slots they are leaving many more deserving players from the 1970s and 1980s on the sideline. I think you will see the seniors committee getting much more safer and conservative with their selections because if the full committee continues to turn down senior candidates the question will be raised why have two slots of seniors instead of going back to the previous rules that only allowed one.”
If the rest of the committee doesn’t do their homework on why a pre-1960s candidate is deserving then that is their fault, nobody else’s. The two slots is intended to help the logjam. Going back down to one only makes the logjam harder. Mike Florio wants it gone altogether. However that won’t solve any problems. Just because somebody wasn’t elected the first time around doesn’t mean they got it right.
Somebody is either a Hall of Famer or they are not. I think Wistert is; and I think it’s possible other players pre-1960s not in can be deserving as well. Blame the committee. Nobody else.
“two names i would like to add are
G- Ken Gray 6/2
T- Ernie McMillan 4/0”
One candidate who is missing from Paul’s list, if you ask me, is Dick Schafrath. I have yet to see him profiled on CCC and I don’t know why. Six Pro Bowls and four first team All Pro Selections. I’m not sure if he made six or seven Pro Bowls since some sources say six, others say seven. With that being said, with that resume, it’s time Schafrath join the mix.
i agree dick schafrath could be another senior nominee that is worth looking at for 2013 or maybe a maxie baughan
Baughan certainly I think is worthy and one of the most deserving senior nominees around.
Sorry in my previous post I was referring to the failure of the full committee to select Dick Stanfel.
There are certainly other players to add to the seniors list for consideration, as many are worthy and deserving of election.
However, I would suspect the senior players in the discussion for 2013 will come from the finalist 20 and 10 lists from previous years, which we do not have a complete listing for except for other blog posts that provided those under consideration in 2012 (and noted on my senior candidates list as 2012 finalist).
And for the record I am in favor of the current system of selecting and electing two senior candidates, my changes would address separating contributors/coaches into stand alone election and perhaps increasing the number of modern slots to 6 or even 7.
I agree separating contributors and coaches.
My ranking of the Senior Candidates.
#1 Johnny Robinson
#2 Al Wistert
I’ve explained the top two many times before.
#3 Jerry Kramer- 5/3/All Decade/50th Anniversary Team That is a nice resume despite with all the Hall of Famers he played with.
#4 Chuck Howley- 5/6/20-20/Super Bowl MVP- IS there an Anti-Cowboy Bias? Is it because he won the MVP of a Super Bowl his team lost? This snub is a real head scratcher.
#5 Randy Gradishar- 5/7/DPOY. Would’ve been a much better choice in 2008 than Andre Tippett if you ask me.
#6 Jim Tyrer- 6 AFL All Stars/8 All AFL/2 time Pro Bowl/All time AFL Team- I know why he isn’t in; but if the Hall of Fame is meant to judge for on field performance then he was a Hall of Famer.
#7 Robert Brazile 5/7/DROY/1970s All Decade- Absolutely a Hall of Fame resume if you ask me judging by all of that. The only linebacker from the 1970s All Decade Team not in Canton and that is a pretty strong case if you ask me.
#8 Maxie Baughan- 1/9. Nine Pro Bowls speak for themself despite the one time All Pro. The fact that he is the fourth linebacker in the top ten tells me how deep the position is.
#9 Ed Meador- 2/6 according to Pro-Football Reference. Wiki says 3/8. So I’m not sure what to believe. 1960s All Decade. He recovered 18 fumbled and blocked 10 kicks. That is really impressive and a solid Hall of Famer in my opinion.
#10 Mick Tingelhoff 5/6- One of the best centers of his era or any era for that matter. Making it to the Super Bowl four times and losing hasn’t stopped players from those Vikings and Bills teams from getting in. Just like how Andre Reed from those Bills teams is missing, I would say the same for Tingelhoff on the Viking teams. Nice resume.
#11 George Kunz- 1/8 Is it the fact that he played on some really bad teams in his career? George Kunz, Jeff Van Note, Tommy Nobis and Claude Humphrey all have Hall of Fame arguments on bad Falcon teams and yet not one of them is in.
#12 Walt Sweeney- I could definitely put Schafrath here but I will go with the three time Pro Bowler, six time AFL All Star and All time AFL second team member.
#13 Cliff Branch- The strongest of the receivers, if you ask me. Not just when you combine Pro Bowls and All Pros but also his stats can be compared against other senior receivers from that era and he’ll match up nicely. Peter King is right. Jim Plunkett doesn’t deserve consideration but Cliff Branch does.
#14 Dick Schafrath- Just evades the top ten. Not in Canton, not even profiled by CCC. 4/6 is a really good one. Testimonials help and when I met JIm Brown and askedhim about Schafrath, he agreed Schafrath should be in.
#15 Bobby Dillon- 4/4 52 INT, blind in one eye nonetheless. Solid HOF candidate.
#16 Claude Humphrey- 5/6 DROY. I definitely think the HOF committee dropped the ball on this one back in 2009. He gets a thumbs up from me.
#17 Cliff Harris- 3/6 or 4/6 depending on which sources you believe. Also made the 1970s All Decade team. Captain Crash gets no argument from me.
#18 Lemar Parrish- 1/8 a nice special teamer and a force on defense. 13 fumble recoveries is really nice.
#19 Ken Anderson 1/4/MVP. Just because he never won a Super Bowl, I am torn between him or Lamonica as the most deserving Senior QB.
#20 Billy Howton- Probably the best receiver candidate after Cliff Branch is you ask me. 2/4 503 catches, 8,459 and 69 TD is really good for his day.
#21 Ray Guy- 6/7/1970s All Decade/75th Anniversary Team. One of only two members of the 75th anniversary team not in Canton, I might even rank him higher in a later draft.
#22 Larry Grantham 5/5/ All Time AFL Second team.
#23 Andy Russell- Played at a really good level before Ham and Lambert were even in the league and he was still really good just as they were getting their feet wet.
#24 Gino Cappelletti- Somehow missing from the All Time team. Five time All Star. Dual threat at receiver and kicker and 1964 AFL MVP.
#25 Winston Hill 4/4 All Time AFL team.
Honorable mention to Joe Fortunato, Lester Hayes, Roger Brown, the receivers, Brodie and LaMonica.
That would be my top 25. Linebacker position is so deep I can’t include Curtis, Nobis here. Dave Robinson is far behind them if you ask me. I would elect those on my list first then worry about the ones who didn’t make the cut before I even got to him.
Despite the DPOY and All Decade, 2/3 doesn’t impress me much for Dick Anderson. Consequently, Jake Scott is 2/5 and has a Super Bowl MVP. I have a difficult task separating the two and figuring out whom I like better.
Harvey Martin 1/4- The All decade and the Co-MVP does help but there are many others I would vote in before.
Curley Culp- CCC is a big proponent and I tend to like CCC a lot but I need more convincing with 1/6. I may change later. I am not opposed to him but I find myself taking a greater liking to others.
So that’s that for now. I will do revisions in the future.
very impressive list right there i must say and also don’t forget about jim marshall who is should be on that list as well
He’s somewhere. Not sure where just yet; but thanks.
Great list Corey. Jim Marshall just for his streak doesn’t deserve to get in to be honest. That does not make you a good player per say. He is a 2x Pro Bowler, and there you go. He is a 2x pro Bowler. That is not too appealing. Ray Nitschke is different. He had a lot more All Pros, which I view as the trump to basically everything, even Super Bowl rings(to an extent). The Cal Ripken Jr comparison is foolish. Cal Ripken was Rookie of the year, a 2x MVP, 19x all star, 3,184 hits, and 431 Home runs. He is top 70 players(not including pitchers) of all time.
Include Frankie Albert to that list. He is underrated. Yes he is only a 1x Pro Bowler. But his All Pro resume is not bad. He was also an exceptional punter: 48.2 punt avg. in 1949. San Francisco has had a good amount of successful Quarterbacks over the years. I also support John Brodie. He is probably more worthy since he played longer, but Frank Albert was underrated.
And John Brodie has more Pro Bowls and APs first team wise. Both are worthy to me.
Charley Hennigan gets my support too.
I’m surprised that after all of this talk about Senior candidates, nobody has mentioned Jimmy Patton yet.
Patton was a 5-time Pro Bowler and 5-time first-team All-Pro in the late 50’s/early 60’s, and was a part of the great Giants teams in that era that made it to 6 championship games over an 8-year period between 1956 and 1963 (though they only won 1 of them in 1956).
Patton finished with 52 career INT’s, which at the time of his retirement was good for a tie for 3rd all-time with the just inducted Jack Butler and the oft-mentioned Bobby Dillon, and only trailed Hall of Famers Emlen Tunnell and Dick “Night Train” Lane.
With the senior committee’s recent tendency to nominate DB’s with high INT totals, I hope his chances are good to get nominated in the next few years. I think he would breeze in if given the chance. Unfortunately since he died young in a car accident at the age of 40, he seems to have become a forgotten man.
I might be the only one but I don’t think Nitschke should be in. Y.A. Tittle said he supports Frankie Albert.
Hennigan was definitely one of the best. 5 time AFL All Star and four time all AFL in addition to having some records.
It’s not that I forgot about Patton. I just haven’t looked too much into him.
When asked of Ray Nitschke , Dick Butkus said simply: ? Whats a Ray Nitschke?
how about derrick brooks former tampa bay buccaneers linebacker? do u think he is a hall-of-famer along with his his fellow tampa bay bucs teammates warren sapp, ronde barber, and john lynch.
5/11/DPOY/2000s All Decade for Brooks. He’s 100% in.
Warren Sapp 4/7/DPOY/1990s AND 2000s All Decade. No doubt about it he goes in.
3/5/20-20/All Decade for Barber. Not as strong as Brooks or Sapp. My guess is one of three things: He never goes in, he goes in with a weak class or he goes in via the Seniors route.
2/9 for John Lynch. Eventually I think he gets in but he will definitely wait if you ask me.
John Lynch has Ed Reed, Troy Polamalu, Brian Dawkins, and Darren Sharper to compete against. John Lynch and Darren Sharper are looking like the odd men out and that is not a testament to Darren and John. I just think Troy, Ed , Brian have better resumes.
I don’t think I would give it to Darren Sharper. Lynch on the other hand has what I talked about in addition to him being a key part on one of the best defenses we have seen: the 2002 Bucs. I would give it to Lynch and I think Lynch eventually gets in.
John Lynch has a good shot, I agree. It’s just the fact that the Hall of Fame via past enshrinement’s, isn’t “kind” to safeties. Having Dawkins, Reed, and Polamalu played in the same era as Lynch, it will take longer for John. Now, Ed Reed is first ballot worthy and Troy by the looks of it, will play another 2 years or so and make at least 1 more AP team(1st or 2nd). He could be a first ballot also. Brian Dawkins should and better get inducted. 4/9/00s alone is good. What I am a fan of is his fight in every play. 36 career forced fumbles, 4 seasons with at least 5. That is a lot for a linebacker/Defensive End. For a saftey? Incredible. Simeon Rice gets left out. Indeed his resume isn’t strong, but what I liked about him was the fact he was the 2nd fastest player to 100 career sacks behind some guy named Reggie White.
yeah but i dont’t think simeon rice has enough to get in if u ask me with his sub-par numbers
I agree Rice is not Hall of Fame worthy. If he played in a previous era with everything staying the same he would be in if you ask em.
Re Charlie Hennigan, I’d have to be convinced he has a better HoF argument than Lionel Taylor and Art Powell. I’m not sold on that.
Re Gino Cappelletti, I’m having a hard time seeing his HoF argument. Compare him to George Blanda and Lou Groza (strong position players and worthy PKs with much longer careers who are already in), who I think have notably better cases. Then consider that the HoF is really stringent with such folks. We’re not talking QBs, where the standards are nowhere near as close shaven. Cappelletti did both quite well, but I’m not sure he’s near the top at either, and I’m not sure it’s enough.
how about london fletcher? he is a very underrated linebacker who has played a lot of years so far and i was wondering if he is hall of fame worthy because he is very underrated both as a player and as a person as well.
I agree with Chris about London Fletcher. Problem with him, is that he is up against the likes of Ray Lewis, Brian Urlacher, Derrick Brooks,Zach Thomas, Lance Briggs,Demarcus Ware,etc. All of which have pretty impressive resumes. London can in fact(as anyone else) get inducted after all of those players do. It would take a while though.
Lets Compare John Brodie to John Hadl
Brodie 2/2
Hadl 6/1
Brodie 214 TD Passes Hadl 244 TD Passes
Brodie 31,548 Passing Yds Hadl 33,503 Passing yds
Who would u take Now Brodie Or Hadl
Fletcher falls into a large number of LBs and other defensive players who fall short of qualifications for the HOF, even other LBs on the list Brad provided are going to have a very hard time getting in if at all, such as Briggs.
Hadl, but I would not even place him in the top senior QBs to be considered for election
Does Hadl not get his respect due to AFL?
Yes I suspect that is part of the reason
Agreed on London Fletcher — very good player with a long career, but as Brad rightly says, behind several other LBs of his time. His postseason profile of 0/2/none just doesn’t stack up to Ray Lewis at 8(7AP)/13/00s or Derrick Brooks at 6(5AP)/11/00s or Brian Urlacher at 4(4AP)/8/00s or Zach Thomas at 5(5AP)/7/00s or Demarcus Ware at 4(4AP)/6/00s, all of whom I think will get elected sooner or later.
don’t forget about patrick willis from the 49ers also as he is another linebacker that will soon join that esteemed list as well
P-Willie is a freak, as is the 2007 draft. Patrick Willis will most likely retire at the very least 5 years barring injuries ,etc. He has another 7 years left. He won’t be affiliated as much with those Linebackers. Yes he is/played with them, but Patrick is still young, whereas the others have played close to or the majority of there careers and will retire sooner than later . I am curious to see how Jon Beason plays after his horrific injury. If he can bounce back with a Pro Bowl/all pro team, than his HOF stock will continue. Of course he is far from HOF worthy as of right now, but he has years left.
Darrelle Revis will be on the “lock list” in the next 2 seasons. Revis has the ability to make another 2 first team APs.
Considering all he accomplished in the AFL, I’d put Cappelletti in. He played many different positions and yet he was really good at them. I don’t know how he didn’t make the all time team, he was AFL MVP. Crazy Canton Cuts make sa really good argument. I think Cappelletti is second only to Ken Riley as the most underrated player in the history of the game.
Spec Sanders has a case to an extent as an AAFC player. Yes he only played 4 seasons, but in those 4 seasons he displayed incredible versatility. 1946: Led the AAFC in rushing attempts, yards, rushing TD’s, yards from scrimmage, All purpose yardage, I punt return for a 75 yard TD, 1 interception return for a 50 yard TD, and a 103 yard kick return, 1st team All Pro.
1947: Led the AAFC in rushing attempts, rushing yards with 1,432, rushing TD’s with 18, had 1,442 passing yards and 14 TDs, 92 yard kick return for a TD, first team All Pro.
1948: rushing attempts.
1950: 13 interceptions, 2nd best all time in a season.
His career was short, but certainly was spectacular.
One person who had a short career I found to be worthy is Chuck Foreman, who has stats on par or superior to Gale Sayers.
Not superior to Gale. Not close. Gale Sayers is one of the top returners of all time and one of the best Running backs of all time. His career is better than Chuck Foreman’s career tenfold. Chuck’s career is good, don’t get me wrong, but nowhere near Gale’s.
Besides the return numbers, you would be surprised how similar the numbers are and how much of a fight Chuck Foreman puts up numbers wise against him.
Chuck was a better receiver yes I will say that. You can’t ignore what Gale did as a returner as well as a running back. Gale led the NFL in rushing yards twice. Set rookie record of 22 total TD’s. Best kick return avg. for a career of 30.6 yards per kick return. (Gale Sayers)5/4 vs 1/5(Chuck Foreman). Gale had at the time of retirement the most kick return TD’s with 6 on only 91 kick returns. He scored the most touchdowns in a game with 6. Chuck had one more 1,000 yard season and 20 more career TD’s, but he played in 41 more career games.
Ok so Chuck only had one first team All Pro Selection but he had three All Pro Selections too, giving him four in total.
One of those seasons in which Gale Sayers led the league in rushing Foreman surpassed three times.
Sayers’ career high in touchdowns is 14. After that is 8. Chuck Foreman had two seasons of 13 TD’s and another of nine.
Foreman playing in 41 more games is not a liability if you ask me. It shows me he was able to last longer.
I don’t think I need to even go there as far as receiving is concerned, Chuck blows him out of the water.
I could say Gale Sayers was the overall better football player all things considered.
However, as a pure halfback and throwing in receiving as well, I’d give the nod to Chuck Foreman.
Corey, some more thoughts on Gino Cappelletti.
Being an AFL MVP (note that three organizations picked one most years) is great, but there are other folks who were too and aren’t in the HoF, nor is it likely they ever will be: Abner Haynes, Cookie Gilchrist, Jim Nance, Daryle Lamonica, Jack Kemp, Paul Lowe, Tobin Rote. Fine players all, no question, but just not enough to make the HoF.
Here’s expansion on the thinking I mentioned above. First, consider that players in the HoF with strong arguments as kickers are really rare. If there were, say, five such folks in per decade, that might be different — but that’s just not the case. Then compare Cappelletti to his competition at the time, Lou Groza and George Blanda, whose careers overlap Cappelletti’s completely or substantially. A major killer for Cappelletti’s HoF argument (as it is for many AFL players) is career length: he played only 11 seasons, Groza played 21 seasons, Blanda played 26 seasons. Cappelletti also led the league in FG percentage once, while Blanda did so 3 times, and Groza 5 times (this last the most ever by a PK).
I’m not saying Cappelletti was a bad player, but that strikes me as not quite enough at a position type where HoF standards are ultra-strict. And you’ve also got to start wondering about other players of this kind, like Lou Michaels. Where does the line get drawn, and why Cappelletti and not someone like Michaels?
Corey: 1. You are as good as your competition. So, Gale having two rushing titles is irrelevant, because Foreman surpassed his one rushing titles three times? How is that coherent? Chuck was 5th,5th, and 6th. Those were the highest. If you lead the NFL in rushing yards twice, that means you lead the NFL in rushing yards twice, no two ways about it. Chuck Foreman yards per carry: 3.8 Gale: 5.0. 565 rushing attempts apart. That isn’t a “liability if you ask me”. Chuck Foreman is a serious Hall of Fame contender. To compare him to Gale is extreme.
chuck foreman was a great player in his own right
“Being an AFL MVP (note that three organizations picked one most years) is great, but there are other folks who were too and aren’t in the HoF, nor is it likely they ever will be: Abner Haynes, Cookie Gilchrist, Jim Nance, Daryle Lamonica, Jack Kemp, Paul Lowe, Tobin Rote. Fine players all, no question, but just not enough to make the HoF.”
Not necessarily saying that alone should get him in; but that does help. Not to mention some of those MVP’s in the AFL were shared. He won one all by himself.
“A major killer for Cappelletti’s HoF argument (as it is for many AFL players) is career length: he played only 11 seasons, Groza played 21 seasons, Blanda played 26 seasons. Cappelletti also led the league in FG percentage once, while Blanda did so 3 times, and Groza 5 times (this last the most ever by a PK).”
11 seasons I have no problem with. Playing under ten and making it to the Hall of Fame, in my opinion, requires really exceptional play. 11 seasons shouldn’t be too bad.
You know who also led the league in field goal percentage just once? Morten Andersen. If it was up to me, I’d put Mort in Canton. Though he doesn’t have as strong of an argument as Mort, Gary Anderson led just once too and there are people who think he should be in. I haven’t made up my mind about Gary but I definitely think there is a bust waiting for Mort.
I will link you to CCC’s article on him. There are so many compelling things to quote that I’d basically just quote the whole article:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/139685-crazy-canton-cuts-gino-cappelletti
So Brad, that tells me then that Chuck faced stiffer competition than Gale did, if anything. I see nothing extreme about comparing Gale to Chuck because I could see why you’d say Sayers was better but by the numbers Chuck did have a lot more in some areas and I don’t think it’s as far fetched as you may think.
“chuck foreman was a great player in his own right”
I absolutely agree.
Actually, a better comparison to Gino Cappelletti than Lou Michaels would be Bobby Walston. Walston played for 12 seasons, twice led the league in FG percentage, and was a decent WR during most of his career. He is on the 50s all-decade team and went to 2 pro bowls. I’m just not seeing a strong case for Walston, unfortunately.
Neither do I, by looking at it but I would take Cappelletti over him.
He had stiffer competition in terms of the other running backs’ rushing yardage, definitely. That doesn’t take away the fact that Gale has two rushing titles vs Foreman’s none. Leading the entire NFL/AFL/AAFC in a meaningful statistic in that given season(passing TDs, yards, rushing yards,etc) is a good accolade or a bad accolade? I am too in support of Gino by the way. I have posted that before.
It’s certainly a good thing but that shouldn’t be a knock against Foreman because he had stiffer competition.
I am glad you support Gino as well. That is something we can agree on.
Don’t get the impression that I think Chuck Foreman wasn’t up against very tough competition. I call(what I think of course) a spade is a spade and Gino’s career is certainly worthy of the Hall of Fame. The AFL was considered by many the “other league”,but it was filled with pretty good players who are not in and he is one of them.
I don’t know why people would call it the other league if the AFL won twice and would often win in exhibition games against the NFL.
Art Powell should be in for consideration. When Art retired in 1968, if my math is correct, only Don Hutson and Tommy McDonald had more receiving TD’s than Art.
There is an argument I suppose. However, I look at Branch, Howton, Jackson, Carmichael, Pearson, Otis Taylor, Del Shofner and I think Powell has a huge obstacle to overcome looking at the receivers available.
In the next 3-5 seasons, Wes Welker can be a contender for the Hall of Fame, depending on how he does. 4x Pro Bowler, 2x first team All Pro, 2x second team all pro, 3 reception titles. That is his current resume. 2-3 more Pro Bowls and 1 more first team All Pro and at least one more 2nd team. He needs at least 2 more Pro Bowls and 2 more APs(first or second team) to be a contender. Time will tell as always.
There is an argument but at the current logjam with Brown, Carter, Reed and then you add T.O. Moss and Harrison to the mix that is a logjam right there. Plus there is the possibility Hines Ward could go there too. The logjam at wide receiver is not looking good and could get worse.
It is going to take several elections but the logjam at WR will eventually get broken up and all those players will be elected within the next ten years. The first step (hopefully starting with 2013) will be get Carter and/or Reed elected so the others will fall into an order. I am certain all the attacks directed at the HOF voters for their indecision on the WRs will force the voters to get their act together and find away to unify behind Carter or Reed and get one elected. The same type of situation exists at OL and DL/LB pass rushers where at least the voters appear to understand the need to work through a sequence of elections to get all those deserving players at the same position elected. And I agree that the backup of WRs in the seniors list is even more tight.
Corey, you said: “You know who also led the league in field goal percentage just once? Morten Andersen. If it was up to me, I’d put Mort in Canton. Though he doesn’t have as strong of an argument as Mort, Gary Anderson led just once too and there are people who think he should be in. I haven’t made up my mind about Gary but I definitely think there is a bust waiting for Mort.”
What you say is true about Andersen and Anderson, but both have an argument that I find really compelling absent this. According to a (likely still-unpublished) study done by Rupert Patrick, both are within the top five all time in lifetime FG percentage when adjusted to era. The five in question as I understand it are Mort, Gary, Nick Lowery, Lou Groza, and Jan Stenerud. The last two are in the HoF, and I think the others should be. I say we get these folks in before anyone else in this category. And that includes Adam Vinatieri, who Patrick apparently found to be just a league-average kicker over his career. The fact that they did so over hugely long careers is a great argument for productive longevity. I’m not sure where Cappelletti stands here.
Re Gino Cappelletti vs. Bobby Walston, (I did look at the Crazy Canton Cuts article) I’m wondering what significantly elevates the former over the latter in a HoF argument. Let me toss some stuff out. The former played 11 years, the latter 12, and they played almost an identical number of games, 153 for the former and 148 for the latter. The former led the league in FG% once, the latter twice. Raw lifetime FG% for the former is 52.9% vs. the latter’s 51.0%, but given that Walston’s career began 9 years prior to Cappelletti’s, chances are good period adjusting will even things out, if not give Walston an edge. Walston was on one NFL Championship winning team (1960) and none of Cappelletti’s teams “won it all.” Cappelletti’s edges are one AFL MVP award, 5 AFL pro bowl equivalents (Walston went to 2 pro bowls), and twice as many FG attempts (though for this last, it would be good to know if things even out more in a period adjustment). Neither was ever named a 1st team all pro by any organization, though Cappelletti was named 2nd team by some organization 4 times, Walston once. Walston’s edges are a longer productive career as a receiver (11 years to Cappelletti’s 8) with what are likely to be better numbers when period adjusting (note that Walston’s Y/R is 17.2 vs. Cappelletti’s 15.7, and Walston is ahead in raw lifetime catches, yards, and TDs — likely a good bit better if these raw counting stats are period adjusted) and being named to the 50s all decade team. And one also needs to consider the level of competition — how much tougher a league was the 60s AFL vs. the 50s NFL? I’m not sure how to answer that definitively, but one might guess (perhaps wrongly, of course) that the latter had tougher competition. All I can say is, if Cappelletti is a HoF-er, I don’t see why Walston isn’t as well. Or maybe neither is.
Sorry, but that smiley face should be “eight)” here.
how about adam vinatieri? i think he has enough on his resume to be a hall of fame kicker but with the bias against kickers in the hall of fame, he might never get in even though he has hall worthy numbers to back it up
I don’t think Adam Vinatieri has an especially compelling HoF argument. According to the Patrick study I mentioned above, adjusted to era Vinatieri is a league average PK when it comes to FG% for his career. He did lead the league twice in FG percentage, but several other kickers have done this. The notion of him being a “clutch kicker” holds in some cases but does not work universally, either — note well that while he did kick a game-winning FG in Super Bowl XXXVIII, he had also missed two FGs prior, so he really shouldn’t have put himself in a position to have to kick a game-winner in the first place.
I say we put in Nick Lowery, Gary Anderson, and Morton Andersen first (all in the top five all-time in adjusted lifetime FG%), then talk about Vinatieri.
The reality is that until the voters put the current all time kicker in the HOF (career total FGs and total points) – which would be Morten Andersen – no other modern pure kicker is getting into the HOF. And then I am not even sure if and when Morten gets in that the voters will have any interest or hurry to put any others in including Lowery, Gary Anderson or Vinatieri regardless of their stats and cases.
Face the truth that HOF voters are simply not giving equal value to any special teams players including K, P and returners UNLESS they are the best of all time, for voters it would mean passing up qualified “full time” regular players. Not that I agree, but I can appreciate the debate against special team players; as look we already have debates over 1st time elections and delays in getting in high quality cases that can take years, with only 5 slots per year I can not see how voters are going to have any interest in widening the pool of candidates to include special team players when at least for the next 5-10 years the pool of regular players is going to be very deep in quality.
In terms of Walston vs Gino I’m not so sure as playing just one more year is an edge.
As far as Vinatieri, not once but twice he led the league in field goal percentage. I have considered him the best kicker I have ever seen play. Whether or not it’s fair, he will get points for what he did in the Super Bowl as well. He’s in and I say deservedly so.
Shane Lechler deserves serious consideration. No other punter has “dominated” like he has. 6 first team AP, 3 second team AP. Shane is capable of producing another Pro Bowl/All Pro season season next 3 seasons if he wishes to play that length. Devin Hester is an interesting case. If he just keeps on returning them back for TDs, it obviously increases his Hall of Fame stock. If he is pedestrian like he was in the 2008 and 2009 seasons, he would need to pick it up in the receiving game. Devin needs to get somewhere in the range of 20 at least. 5 in the next 3 seasons is reasonable and could be all he needs, but even than it is debatable.
There is no requirement that the HOF voters select an RB next year, but are there players at five other positions more qualified than Bettis? A lot of the most qualified modern-era players out there are WRs and D-linemen. I guess I could see a class of a WR, Strahan, Haley or Sapp, and any two of Ogden, Allen, and Parcells, but could you name anyone else at any other position that could displace any of them other than Bettis?
“I am certain all the attacks directed at the HOF voters for their indecision on the WRs will force the voters to get their act together and find away to unify behind Carter or Reed and get one elected.”
I think we all thought that would be the case this year. I’m increasingly convinced Carter making the final 10 robbed Reed of a trip to the HOF because they split the votes.
I think this year may have raised ill omens for Devin Hester’s chances of getting into Canton, with Patrick Peterson coming along and outplaying him. He may be the best returner of his era, but coming along at a time when everyone is returning kicks for touchdowns like never before makes him look less like the greatest of all time. He already wasn’t the returner representative on the 2000s All-Decade team, now he might not make the 2010s team either. It would be very difficult for the HOF voters to justify voting a returner in without that on their resume.
Indeed Patrick had an incredible season. Lets see if Patrick Peterson keeps it up like Devin has. Devin has shown no signs of slowing down 4 out of his 6 seasons.
Hester DID make the 2000s All Decade Team. If he had played the whole decade he would’ve been on the first team for both if you ask me.
Two particularly strong HoF arguments for PKs (in my opinion at least) should be number of times the player led the league in FG% (addresses peak value) and lifetime FG% period adjusted (addresses productive longevity, especially for players with long careers).
Corey, here are all the PKs who have led their league in FG% more than once: Lou Groza (5 times), Stenerud (4 times), George Blanda, Nick Lowery, Toni Fritsch, Don Cockroft, and Garo Yepremian (3 times), Adam Vinatieri, Matt Stover, Eddie Murray, George Blair, Jim Bakken, Gene Mingo, Bobby Walston, and Bruce Gossett (2 times). The reason I’m listing this is that Vinatieri leading the league in FG% twice is not something that sets his HoF case far above the competition. Five is the gold standard, and four times is also pretty darned impressive here. Of the players listed, Groza, Stenerud, and Blanda are in the HoF, and all three are at the top of the heap on this issue.
As mentioned above, Patrick’s study shows Groza, Stenerud, Lowery, Morton Andersen, and Gary Anderson as the top elite in lifetime period adjusted FG%.
If we in fact accept my two arguments, that gives Groza, Stenerud, and Lowery top dog HoF status in both peak and longevity, with Anderson and Andersen having great longevity arguments. And I don’t see that Vinatieri is in this level of elite company, given that he led the league twice in FG% and is a league-average FG kicker for his career. At least that’s my thinking.
Of course paul is right — the actual HoF voters may, and likely will, think differently on PKs. My guess is that if they actually elect anyone, it will be Vinatieri and Andersen (probably very eventually) while snubbing Lowery and Anderson completely.
Corey, you also said: “In terms of Walston vs Gino I’m not so sure as playing just one more year is an edge.” True enough, but then again, I didn’t characterize it as that big a deal. In fact, it might be seen as reinforcement for the idea that there isn’t a whole lot of difference between the two in a HoF case.
Gary Anderson is yet to reach the Last 25 in the 3 years he’s been on the ballot. I’m interested to see how far Morten Andersen gets next year with his first time eligibility. I’d expect to see him on the semi-final list at least.
it is also a travesty that ray guy, one of the best pure punters in pro football history and he can’t even get into the hall of fame, really ridiculous there.
Ah, the old Ray Guy HOF travesty. He’s been discussed to death and I’m a No vote. Not even the best Raiders punter ever.
I don’t get it, Bachs. You seem to hold it against some for leading it just once and others not at all and then I say he led it twice but I think Vinatieri was better than others up there.
I can’t see Lowery ever getting in. It will probably be a miracle as it is if they elect Mort and Vinatieri. Lowery probably is nowhere near their radar.
I am a yes vote for Ray Guy, for the record.
Tony Gonzalez is a sure shot Hall of Famer, being he will be playing another season , he is a 12 time Pro Bowler, 5 first team All Pro, 11th most receiving yards, needs 667 receiving yards to pass Torry Holt, Henry Ellard, Cris Carter, and James Lofton, and he has the 2nd most receptions all time. Antoino Gates Is an 8x Pro Bowler, 3 first team All Pro,2 second team all pro. He has the 2nd most receiving TDs among Tight Ends. Jason Witten has a lesser case than the other two, yes. I hope the Hall of Fame doesn’t look past him. His resume is not bad thus far; 7x Pro Bowler, 2 first team All Pro, 2 second team All Pro. If it weren’t for Jimmy Graham’s breakout season, Jason Witten would have been invited to his 8th consecutive Pro Bowl. Jason is capable of getting two more Pro Bowls. If so, his case would be tough not to elect him along with Gates and Gonzalez.
I think it’s not farfetched to suggest all three are worthy. My question is, who will get in? Gonzalez is a slam dunk Hall of Famer. I think Gates and Witten are deserving of such an honor too. However, the voters can be a fickle bunch. I anticipate Gonzalez will get in first or second ballot. Gates and Witten may have to wait.
Shannon Sharpe was the all time leading receiver at the time of retirement for Tight Ends and was a key player in three 3 Super Bowl winning teams(1997 Broncos, 1998 Broncos, 2000 Ravens) . He made the Hall on the third ballot. Tony’s career numbers are pretty incredible. We will see who is on the ballot and who retires the same year as he.
The current Running Back lock jam or lack there of, will benefit Edgerrin James. The way I view it: Jerome Bettis is superior to any other Running back currently on the ballot. Roger Craig is definitely a player in it, but Bsttis simply played longer and was productive. Edge will be eligible in 3 years I believe. Shaun Alexander will be in 2. Shaun is a wild card for me. He is definitely Hall of Fame worthy with a NFL MVP, rushing title, 112 total TD’s, 48 total TD’s from 2004-2005 , 98 from 2001-2005. Edge better get inducted before Shaun, Tiki , Corey Dillon, Jamal Lewis, etc. To me , James has a good chance of making the Hall.
I’m not sure about Shaun Alexander. I see him as an upgraded version of Terrell Davis.
What are Ruben Browns Hall of Fame chances?
I think he’ll eventually get in; but not for a good period of time. He may have to wait until he’s a senior candidate.
I agree. Kevin Mawae deserves to be elected before he is a senior nominee. He is by a good margin the best Center in the 2000’s.
3/8/2000s All Decade seems solid to me. Don’t know why he wouldn’t get in.
Mawae yes, Ruben Brown no. Brown was a classic example of being deserving of his first few Pro Bowl selections then getting voted solely by reputation in his latter seasons if I remember back. Alexander didn’t even reach 10,000 career rushing yds. Good player but I felt he owed a lot to running behind Walter Jones and Steve Hutchinson, both future HOFers. When Jones got old and Hutchinson departed to Minnesota as a free agent, Alexander nosedived faster than I can remember from any top RB.
Shaun, Tiki , Corey Dillon, Jamal Lewis are not getting in the HOF (Shaun may have some chance but a long shot). E James is likely but it will not be a quick or easy path for him. And I would say no to Ruben Brown also.
Jason Peters is a 5x Pro Bowler, 1st team All Pro and 3 second team All Pro. He earned his 1st team AP this season. If he keeps it up, we can’t avoid his Hall of Fame chances. Vince Wilfork: 4x Pro Bowler, 4 second team AP, has somewhat of a chance if he improves with at least 2 more Pro Bowls and a couple more AP teams. Haloti Ngata: 3x Pro Bowler, 2 first team AP and 2 second team AP, earning all in the last 4 seasons and he is only 28. He has years left. When Ed Reed and Ray Lewis retire in next several seasons, he will be even more recognized.
We shall see with players like Peters, Wilfork and Ngata as time well tell, plenty of careers could go any direction with several years left. There are many players with 4/4 or better careers not in or going in the HOF. And personally I would avoid counting 2nd team all pro but instead focus on 1st team only as I doubt the second team selections really influence the HOF voters.
It’s possible with those three. I’m much more interested in the Hall of Fame cases of DeMarcus Ware, Joe Thomas and Patrick Willis.
4/6/2000s All Decade for Ware. Looks in to me.
3/5 for Thomas. I can’t remember the last time I saw somebody who looked like they were heading for the Hall of Fame after just their fifth season but Thomas is sure arguing why he should get a bust.
Along with Patrick Willis. 4/5 in his first five seasons? My goodness that is pretty thick.
2nd Team AP to me is better than making the Pro Bowl in a sense. Being named the 2nd best player at your given position is a pretty good honor vs being voted by fans . I guess to some it’s first team or nothing. Patrick Willis is a Hall of Fame lock in two seasons(with two Pro Bowls and one first team AP) if not this upcoming year with one more first team AP. Calvin Johnson is a player to kelp an eye on. He is only a 1/2,but as long as Stafford stays heathly, it could easily be around a 2/5 in the next 4 seasons and could have something like 10,500 receiving yards and 60 TD’s.
Steven Jackson is interesting. 0/3 is not appealing but not horrid. What he has going ,which I find underrated in all RBs is his durability via the number(7) of straight 1,000 rushing yard seasons. The others who have accomplished that feat: Emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders, Curtis Martin, Thurman Thomas, Eric Dickerson and LaDainian Tomlinson. Heard of any? I watched two play in C-Mart and LT and they knew a thing a two about the Running Back position. Jackson deserves consideration. Depending on how much longer he plays.
Steven Jackson is interesting. 0/3 is not appealing but not horrid. What he has going ,which I find underrated in all RBs is his durability via the number(7) of straight 1,000 rushing yard seasons. The others who have accomplished that feat: Emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders, Curtis Martin, Thurman Thomas, Eric Dickerson, and LaDainian Tomlinson. Heard of any? I watched two play in C-Mart and LT and they knew a thing a two about the Running Back position. Jackson deserves consideration. Depending on how much longer he plays.
great running back steven jackson is, very underrated
Corey, you’ll be glad to know we agree on some things. :-) Definitely think Demarcus Ware, Joe Thomas, and Patrick Willis are on the fast-track to the HoF at the rate they’re going. The only thing likely to derail them is an immediate and sudden career-ending injury, as in what happened to Tony Boselli.
I would put Darrelle Revis in the list of “fast track to the HOF” as well. 3/4 in 5 seasons is pretty good to me. DR has been the best corner in the NFL for the past 3 seasons, hands down. His interception total doesn’t have and shouldn’t have an impact on his stock. In 2010, he had 0 ints and 9 pass defended. He was still named first team AP. Why? Look at who he covered and look at those WRs statistics. That is what makes him above the rest. What is underrated about him is his tackling. He is one of the best tacklers in the NFL as far as Corners.
A lot of them start off on a Hall of Fame pace but fall off quickly. CJ looks great and had an amazing year this year. He was incredible against the Saints. It’s just that Drew Brees is so good.
speaking of tony boselli, what do you think his hall of fame chances will be in the near future? he was a solid tackle out of USC and played well for those jacksonville jaguars teams during the late 90s and early 2000s.
Tony Boselli Is borderline. To be quite honest, if he didn’t get hurt, if he played another 4 seasons and earned at least 3 Pro Bowls and a few APs than he would have even more of a presentable case.
I’m afraid I will pass on Boselli. For now at least.
Where is Steven Jackson’s Hall of Fame stock at? I say he needs one more this year and depending on how much he gets. He realistically needs two more 1,000 yard seasons in a row to have a great chance. 9 straight would be tough to not put him in based on the running back position. Curtis Martin, Emmitt Smith, and Barry Sanders only RB’s with 9 straight; Great company. We shall see.
I say if pure nose tackles get in and Kickers and Punters, I say Mike Alstott deserves some consideration: 3/6 with 71 career TD’s. Yes 3.7 for a career for a running back is not appealing, but he is a fullback. He also blocked. In the span of the 1997-2000 seasons, he blocked for Warrick Dunn who ran for 3,753 yards in that span. Mike ran for 2,925 yards in that span as well. Pure special teams players’ have to be the best of the best. Fullbacks should not be judged the same way a running back is judged. They are different positions. Mike Alstott should be on the ballot at least.
If you’re going to consider fullbacks from this general time, you’ll also have to get Larry Centers into this mix along with Alstott.
i don’t know about mike alstott, i mean he was a great player for those tampy bay bucs teams but it is hard for a fullback to get into the hall of fame
Before we tackle the issue of the lack of FBs, Ps and Ks in the HOF we should be looking at Safeties!
I never saw safety as much of a dire need. I have no problems with fullbacks being in.
Just look at the numbers of Safeties from the decade teams of the 60s, 70s, 80s and 90s, it is the regular position most underrepresented in the HOF
Mike Alstott is more than head and shoulders above the fullbacks he was playing against. You are as good as your competition. I am too for the addition for more safeties in the Hall of Fame. Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu are easily Hall of Famers. Ed should be first ballot. Brian Dawkins is a Hall of Famer too. 4/8/00s. He is versatile: He can intercept, he can get after the quarterback, he can force fumbles, he can stop the run, etc. John Lynch I say should wait longer than Brian despite being a big part of the Bucs Super Bowl team. Darren Sharper would be next in line. Of course his “door” isn’t slammed, nor it ever is. He has a long shot. I used to think the other way. But the more and more I look at it , it is hard to tell. 5 safeties in a span of less than 20 years is too much. After Darren it is no one.
I’m with Paul re safeties. Consider that none of these eligible folks are HoF-ers or likely ever will be, many of them being Seniors or soon to be: Jimmy Patton, Bobby Dillon, Johnny Robinson, Eddie Meador, Cliff Harris, Donnie Shell, Kenny Easley, Joey Browner, Deron Cherry, Leroy Butler, Steve Atwater, and Darren Woodson. And that doesn’t count likely deserving DBs who played both CB and safety, such as Dave Grayson and Cornell Green.
Brad, did you look at the numbers Larry Centers put up? He has every bit as good a HoF argument as Mike Alstott, though for Centers it’s catches that put him in any such discussion — he finished with 827 receptions, 6797 receiving yards, and 28 receiving TDs lifetime. To put that in perspective, consider that Shannon Sharpe is an exact peer of Centers and a HoF TE with a lifetime 815 catches, 10060 yards, and 60 TDs. And Centers added another 2188 yards and 14 TDs rushing to his numbers and couldn’t possibly have been a worse blocker than Sharpe (Sharpe was self-admittedly unmotivated to block and all I’ve seen suggests he was not good at this skill) . And I’m not sure either Centers or Alstott have enough to get them into the HoF anyway — Alstott was pretty much the only FB of his time to be used in a “traditional” way (as a real running back and not primarily as a dedicated blocker like Lorenzo Neal or pass-outlet player like Centers), and comparing him to other full-on RBs of the time (as one would rightly do for earlier FBs of this type such as Jim Brown or Jim Taylor) does not favor Alstott as a HoF-er.
out of the list of safeties that you mentioned there, johnny robinson is the most glaring safety out of all of them that needs to be in the hall of fame, hopefully by next year if he gets one of the senior slots along with chuck howley or jerry kramer
Where I see Mike Alstott has an edge over Larry Centers and Lorenzo Neal is the 6 Pro Bowls, 3 first team APs, and 71 career TD’s. Those are the main stats we tend to judge players.
“out of the list of safeties that you mentioned there, johnny robinson is the most glaring safety out of all of them that needs to be in the hall of fame, hopefully by next year if he gets one of the senior slots along with chuck howley or jerry kramer”
I ABSOLUTELY agree. It’s also about time that Meador, Grayson, DIllon and Patton got their respect from the seniors too. I’ve been saying it this whole time that it’s mind boggling how Robinson has not gotten in. I don’t know what the logic of the voters is or the argument against Robinson’s Hall of Fame candidacy but I can’t imagine it being a good one.
When I was growing up, Alstott was generally accepted and seen as the man at his position. Yes for me.
Johnny Robinson is the biggest snub as far as safeties and was also not bad on offense as well in the first two seasons of his career. Larry Grantham deserves consideration 5/5/AFL . He was a big part of the 1968 Super Bowl winning Jets team.
Centers was an excellent receiver , no doubt, but it earned him 3 Pro Bowls, one 1st team All conference. Mike Alstott and Larry Centers are Backs in general. Rushing yards, if you are going to judge them, is the first thing you look at. But yes they are fullbacks and I said judge them in being fullbacks. It is just hard to near impossible to judge who was the better blocker. You can’t through stats.
Offensive Tackle Al Wistert is a big snub as well. 1x Pro Bowl, first team all pro in 1944,1945,1956,1947. He was also named first team all pro in 1948 by Sporting News, NY Daily News and others. In 1949, he was named All-NFL/AAFC 1st Team by the Int. News Service. Also in 1950 and 1951. he was named second team AP. He was a two-time world champion. 1940’s All decade team. Philadelphia Eagles # 70 Jersey retired.
Joe Klecko have a case. He was an excellent overall Defensive Lineman. I wish they had sacks official the beginning of his career. He finished with somewhere around 74 sacks unofficially. He Pro Bowled at three different positions: Nose Tackle, Defensive End,and Defensive Tackle. Hall of Fame Guard Joe DeLamielleure said,”You can’t think of his ten year period without him. I had to block Joe Greene and Merlin Olsen when I was playing and, believe me, Joe Klecko was equal to those two guys. If Joe Klecko had played one position for ten years, he’d have been considered one of the top two or three players at that position, whichever one it was. There’s not another player who went to the Pro Bowl at three different positions. You take a defensive end and put him at nose tackle and he’s just as good there, that’s a great player. We need to get Joe Klecko in the Hall of Fame.” Anthony Muñoz said Joe Klecko was up there with Bruce Smith, Fred Dean, and Lee Roy Selmon. He also said Joe was the strongest guy he ever faced. He had perfect technique Anthony said also. Joe is well deserving with those remarks.
I can’t disagree on any of your points, Brad.
Ronde Barber should be a Hall of Famer. He won’t go in on the first several ballots. He will have to wait most likely at least 3 years on the ballot. 3/5/00s with 2 second team all pros. He is pretty durable, Despite playing in only one game in 1997, he hasn’t missed one game. Since 2000,hasn’t missed one start. He missed one start in 1999. He has the most sacks by a cornerback in NFL history, also has 43 interceptions,a reasonable amount. He has returned 7 back for TD’s , 4 fumble recovery TD’s, 1 block punt for a TD and 1 punt return for TD. Ronde has at least one sack in 12 of his last 13 seasons. He was apart of perhaps one of the top 5 defenses of all time. The notables: Warren Sapp, Simeon Rice, Derrick Brooks, Shelton Quarles,Brian Kelly, John Lynch, and Dexter Jackson. That defense has four Hall of Famers at the most: Sapp(no doubt Hall of Famer), Rice(long shot), Brooks(first ballot), John Lynch( Hard to tell).
Can Charles Woodson enter first ballot status ? 3/8/00s, 54 career Ints, two interception titles, 2009 defensive player of the year. 11 Pick sixs(at least one in 6 straight seasons). He is still a top Cornerback in the NFL. I think that he is worthy of being inducted first ballot with a Pro Bowl/All Pro season in 2012. Darrelle Revis can get 1st team again for fourth straight. If he starts out 4/5 in six seasons, I like his chances for the Hall. What does Nick Mangold have to do to be Hall of Fame worthy?
I can’t say I’d put Rice in but Sapp, Lynch and Brooks would get my vote.
Barber would be a decent candidate but not my first choice and I suppose he just snuck up on me.
I’d say at this point it is very likely Woodson gets in on the first ballot and if not he’ll be in second ballot the latest if you ask me.
Revis is looking good.
Mangold? He better absolutely dominate. 2/4 is not bad so far. However he should probably be the absolute best of the best since not everybody notices centers.
Dawson got in this year. That’s good to see; but Dawson was at the top of the line. It’s also criminal how Tingelhoff has been disrespected too. Mangold might not be a bad candidate when he retires; but I can imagine due to his position that he’ll have to wait, if he ever gets in.
charles woodson is definitely a first ballot hall of famer for me, i don’t know about joe klecko good player but borderline hall of famer for me, has a family tree of football players though with dan klecko among others
While I definitely think Charles Woodson at 4(3AP)/8/00s gets in the HoF at some point, whether he is “first ballot” or not is another question. Chances are good he’s number 2 on the CB depth chart of the time, behind Champ Bailey at 5(3AP)/11/00s, with Ronde Barber 3rd in the pecking order at 3(3AP)/5/00s. Unless Woodson comes up as a first timer in a weak year, I’d be surprised if he’s “first ballot.” I’m seeing Darrelle Revis as a later era CB than these three, but he’s got a great fast-track start to HoF membership.
Given how strict the HoF is with centers, Nick Mangold will have to be seen as the best center of his time to make the HoF. It’s still plenty early yet for him, fortunately, and his career pretty much falls later than Kevin Mawae, who will likely be the only center of his era voted in. Depends on how Mangold fares against players like Maurkice Pouncey as the ’10s progress in terms of all-pro selections, pro bowls, and the like.
Agree with Corey that I’d vote for all of Warren Sapp, Derrick Brooks, and John Lynch for the HoF but not Simeon Rice. In reality, my guess is that Brooks gets elected within his first few years eligible, Sapp has a wait as finalist of about 4-5 times, and Lynch falls into the Seniors pool. Lynch unfortunately will be compared to safeties Ed Reed and Brian Dawkins, and at a position the HoF voters don’t much seem to like.
Brad, I’d also caution strongly against the idea that AP 1st teams, pro bowls, and TDs are “the main stats we tend to judge players” with when it come to ALL players. I personally put a lot of weight on 1st team all pro selections (from all organizations except for Sporting News pre-1980, not just AP), pro bowls, and all decade teams for non-skill positions (o-linemen and defensive players), mostly because there aren’t any reliably meaningful stats one can use otherwise. But for me, when it comes to skill positions such as QBs, RBs, TEs. WRs, and PKs, there are stats one can use, and that’s an especially important piece of the puzzle for them — just be sure the stats are used thoughtfully, especially when comparing players across eras. And even then, I think one needs to look with care even beyond this — knowledgeable film study may make a big difference here, as it likely does for someone like Ray Nitschke who has a profile of 3(2AP)/1/60s yet still makes sense as a HoF-er.
I’m on the fence with Joe Klecko. His profile of 2(2AP)/4/none is pretty thin, but guys who did good film study like Dr. Z liked his play a lot, and he draws strong positive comments from opponents who would in theory be less likely to be teammate-biased (as Brad cites above). Hard to say.
Re the Alstott/Centers/Neal debate — in some ways, this isn’t that far away from the deep threat vs. possession WR argument. For their period, one could argue that they’re the top dogs of their respective type of FB (all-around RB, outlet pass FB, dedicated blocking FB). But given that Alstott is the most like the old fashioned Jim Brown style FB, it’s instructive to compare him to non-FB running backs, as would happen to Brown vs. say Lenny Moore or Frank Gifford or Don Perkins. Players like Brown and Jim Taylor fare well in this kind of exercise, while Alstott doesn’t so much — which is why I’m not so taken with Alstott as a HoF-er. Call Alstott a RB, and he’s a Hall of the Very Good level player compared to Curtis Martin or Marshall Faulk. I’m not sure how to rank the HoF worth of FBs of this time anyway, in part because of the various kinds and how to compare them “across the board” to other types of positions.
I’m not too sure what to make of Klecko either.
Since Lynch could make it to the Senior Pool one day, do you think it is imperative the Committee nominates at least one senior for 2013?
I ask that to everybody since safety seems to be a problem.
Well if you look at any comprehensive list of senior players there are plenty of safeties on any such list so yes over time the senior committee needs to address that position
What I want to know is, why safety? Why is that position so under represented? It’s like third base for the Baseball Hall of Fame.
Why Robinson, Meador, Grayson, Patton and Dillon are all on the outside of Canton I don’t know. Have they just been forgotten about?
I will state again my case for Robinson. He is often is compared to Larry Wilson of the N.F.L. I shall compare.
Robinson 57
Wilson 52
INT Yards
Wilson 800
Robinson 741
Touchdowns
Robinson 18
Wilson 5
5/8 Two All Decade Teams for Larry Wilson tells me he is a Hall of Famer no matter what. However, the Cardinals never reached the Super Bowl. Not his fault by any stretch. He still earned his bust in Canton.
Robinson, however, reached two Super Bowls. He was nominated to the 25th Anniversary Team. He played Super Bowl IV with three broken ribs and yet he came away with one interception and one fumble.
Robinson was a SIX TIME First Team All Pro and Seven Time Pro Bowler according to Football-Reference. In AFL terms, six time First All-AFL and six time AFL All Star.
I have said before and I will say again: the only Hall of Famer from the Super Bowl IV Chiefs Defense I would put in the H.O.F. before Robinson would be Willie Lanier.
Robinson was FIRST TEAM All time AFL Team. Buck Buchanan? Second team. Robinson Hall of Fame? No. Buchanan? Yes.
Logic? I think it’s missing.
Robinson was ranked #10 out of top 100 players who have yet to be enshrined on notinhalloffame.com
If the Hall of Fame is for the game changers, then Robinson is credited as redefining the safety role.
The fact that Buchanan, Thomas, Bell and Lanier got in before Robinson, that is the voters’ fault. They are the ones who backed themselves into a corner by not selecting him back in the 1980s. He has been honored by the Hall of Fame before with the All Time Team and the 1960s Team of the Decade. I believe now is the time to give him the ultimate honor by the Hall of Fame: membership and a way overdue bust.
If I am wrong, I ask anybody to make a coherent, intelligent argument as to why Mr. Robinson should not enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. In all honesty, I do not think it can be done. I do not think somebody could make a good argument as to why Johnny Robinson should not be in Canton.
If need be, I will send this to the Senior’s Committee. I think Jack Butler was a good choice and I think Stanfel should have joined him this year. Yet at the top of the chain, in my opinion, is #42 for the reasons I listed above. Hopefully the committee names him a nominee for the Class of 2013. He would be an A+ choice and I would hope the other voters see the same way.
I have no idea why the safety position is not given full credit by the HOF voters and I agree Robinson is deserving as he is in my top 5 senior candidates list. Again I have no idea why he is not already in the HOF although some have speculated that an anti-AFL bias existing among HOF voters for much of the 1970s to 1990s elections meaning he ended up falling into the seniors pool with several other deserving safeties and also many AFL players.
That’s really a shame about the whole anti-AFL thing, even though there were a nice list of AFL’ers who got selected. Hopefully we get two really good candidates this August.
Randy Moss signed with the 49ers after sitting out the 2011 season. He will have to wait at least another 5 seasons until he is eligible. I don’t know if Andre Reed, Tim Brown, and Cris Carter will all be inducted by the time Randy is up for the Hall. I can see one of them still waiting, but I seriously hope not. Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, and Marvin Harrison are easily worthy for the Hall of Fame. They should all get in. I hope they all don’t have to wait until the senior nominee . I don’t think they will. Torry Holt, Issac Bruce, Hines Ward, etc are the ones who are next in line for the Hall. Where do they stand? Are they Hall of Fame worthy, even through senior nominee? I say of course, but we will see.
The question of “why are CBs better represented in the HoF than safeties” is a good one. I’ve seen allusion to this somewhere, though, (might have been courtesy of Dr. Z) that playing CB requires skills (such as man coverage) that safeties don’t often possess. I’m not convinced that’s a good argument — it’s kind of like faulting a horse because he isn’t fancy-striped like a zebra, when in fact he’s doing his job being a perfectly good horse. And safeties are “full game” players like other position folk, so the argument some people use against special teams players for the HoF (regardless of whether it’s justified or not) doesn’t hold either.
I think the same thinking holds for OTs in relation to centers and guards for the same reason — in fact, I’ve seen the idea mentioned that left-side OT is even a “skill position.” Again, can’t say I’m buying into this thinking. But like it or not, that’s probably an issue with some voters.
randy moss nor terrell owens are not hall of famers to me, yes they have the stats to be in that hall of fame, but i just don’t think they should be included in the hall of fame, because they were mostly divas and too much character issues to even be mentioned for that, so besides reed, carter, brown, harrison, ward, holt, and bruce need to be in before those character issues guys get in
chris, note well that character issues are considered off-limits for HoF consideration, per the Hall’s own stated guidelines. Otherwise, players like Lawrence Taylor and Michael Irvin likely would have had serious problems getting elected. In practice, character considerations once in a while come into play despite this (Jim Tyrer), but I don’t see that being a prima donna or even not going all-out all the time is a big problem here even in practice if the numbers are there. It’s not like Moss or Owens murdered anybody — at most, it might delay a bit.
Exhibit A for getting elected despite effort lapses (for example) is Richard Dent, who had a reputation for taking plays off (especially against the run) and still got in despite a marginal candidacy.
“but i just don’t think they should be included in the hall of fame, because they were mostly divas and too much character issues to even be mentioned for that”
Several people feel the same way. I feel as though Brett Favre is a bigger diva than Randy Moss and Terrell Owens, but that doesn’t hurt his chances one bit for the Hall , as it shouldn’t. You can’t judge a player or anyone based on your own morals. I am sure that the morals that you have are the general populations’ morals as well. The activities they engage themselves in off the field has no bearing to what they are on the field per say. Yes, Randy Moss and Terrell Owens are not necessarily considered “good teammates”;we have seen great players who are not certainly considered good teammates, but it does not take away the fact of what they accomplished on the field/court.
Moss and Owens have the career numbers and season awards to get them in HOF,, but I doubt that the path for either of them is going to be quick or easy as I can see both having to wait 3-5 years after their first years on the ballot – which I have no problem with.
I personally don’t have a problem with “divas” getting in. If they are worthy, they are worthy.
I have heard Curt Schilling is a jerk. Yet I would vote him into the Baseball Hall of Fame because he has the numbers even if he isn’t the nicest man.
The same goes for football if you ask me.
Maurice Jones-Drew 3x Pro Bowler and 1x first team AP. NFL rushing title. He is 3,146 rushing yards away from 10,000 for a career. Of course his chances as it looks now is not too high. If he continues the way he is playing, he can make more Pro Bowls. If Steven Jackson gets 1,000 rushing yards this year, he should have a shot at the Hall. To rush for 8 straight seasons of 1,000 yards is very tough. He was 2nd team All Pro to a record setting LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006 and 2nd team AP to a 2,000 yard rusher in Chris Johnson in 2009. Chris already has a 2,000 rushing yard season, most yards from scrimmage in a season, and is a 3x Pro Bowler and a 1x first team AP. He has four 1,000 yard rushing seasons in 4 seasons. His HOF stock is rising each year I would imagine. Thoughts on any of these players?
All three have a shot but each need another 3-5 years of high level performance and the history and recent trends with RBs past the age of 30 are not very good.
Obviously right now they are not Hall of Famers. Yes as you said, give them three to five seasons and see where they are at.
maurice jones drew is on track to be a hall of fame player
I agree with you Chris. As is Adrian Peterson, who I didn’t and should of mentioned. I believe AP will be a Hall of Fame lock in a few seasons. He got hurt last year. It happens, that is football. 970 rushing yards and 12 rushing TD’s in 12 games is a reasonable season. He has accomplished an extensive amount in 5 seasons of play; is a 4x Pro Bowler and a 2 time first team All Pro(2008+2009); he was named 1st team All Pro by the Pro Football Writers and Associated Press in 2007, his rookie season. In 2010 ,he was named 2nd team All Pro by the Associated Press. He has the 4th best rushing yards per game average in NFL history. Terrell Davis is 3rd. Adrian Peterson if he stays healthy, should pass TD in rushing attempts and yards, not that it has any bearing on TD or AP. AP should have a more consistent career. I see AP having a first ballot type of career, depending on how many more high quality seasons he will replicate. Curtis Martin would have been if Marshall was eligible a year prior or a year after. Jerome Bettis seems to be the next RB in the Hall of Fame. That doesn’t mean the Hall of Fame has an agenda to put in QBs, RBs, WRs, etc in before other positions. When do they announce the Senior Nominees for 2013?
Seniors are announced in August. Sadly that is a long way away.
AP I think is the best back in the league. He is on track if you ask me.
yes it is a long ways away there
Fuzzy Thurston should get recognition someday. six time NFL champion. 1x first team All Pro in 1961(NFL champs), second team All Pro in 1963, second team All Pro in 1964, 2nd team All Pro in 1966(Super Bowl champs). I support the induction of his teammate Jerry Kramer over Fuzzy.
With one 1st team All Pro Thurston is NEVER going to make the HOF, just too many more worthy candidates on the seniors list
Jim Marshall has a case according to the Hall because he was a Senior Nominee in 2004. Jim Marshall had zero 1st team All Pros. He was named 2nd team All Pro three times. Jim’s streak is impressive no doubt about that, but that doesn’t qualify you as a great player. Not saying he was bad, obviously if you make the Pro Bowl(especially before the internet was around, prior to the era of fans voting), you are a good player. He is borderline, but he just doesn’t make it for me. 2 Pro Bowls with not one first team All Pro . Richard Dent 1/4 is better and many(not me) seem to not agree with him being inducted into the Hall of Fame.
Marshall made the 15 finalist list only on the last year he was eligable as a modern candidate a common occurance by the hof voters, his streak earned him that honor but he got no closer to election and now as a senior there 20+ better seniors on that list.
LaVern Dilweg is a big snub. 5 first team All Pro(1927-1931); in 1926, he was named 1st team by the Collyers Eye Mag. and Chicago Tribune. In 1932 and 1933 he was named 2nd team All Pro. 1920’s All decade team. 3x NFL Champion.
I have heard a lot of stuff for Dilweg. I doubt he gets nominated anytime soon though.
drew pearson has a case to be a hall of fame wide receiver out of the senior lists
Yes he does; but I would worry about Branch, Howton and Shofner first among senior receivers.
how about pete retzlaff for a special teams senior player?
We discussed Retzlaff. He probably is the best senior candidate for tight ends.
Mac Speedie, 5x champion. He was Otto Graham’s most targeted/ favorite receiver as you can see via stats, besides Hall of Famer Dante Lavelli. Speedie led the AAFC in receiving yards twice, he was in the top three a total of 4 times in the AAFC, two times in the top 6 in the NFL; he also led the AAFC three times in receptions,4 total in top 6 in AAFC, Led NFL in receptions one time in 1952 and 6th in 1950. He was only a 2x Pro Bowler, but they didn’t have Pro Bowls in the AAFC. He was a 3 time first team All Pro in 1947, 1948, and 1949. He was named first team All Pro in 1946(rookie season) by the NY Daily News and UPI. In 1950, he was named first team All Pro by the NY Daily News and in 1952 second team All Pro by the NY Daily News and first team by UPI.
Bill Forester is a 4x Pro Bowler and a 3x All Pro in 1960,1961,1962 ; in 1959, he was 2nd team All Pro to three Linebackers by the names of Sam Huff, Joe Schmidt, and Bill George(Although Forester did get first team All Pro over Joe and the rest in 1960-62). In 1963 he was named 1st team All Pro by Sporting News. I am in support of both. Both are worthy in my eyes.
The next few are player has somewhat of a case but I am not completely sold on him: John David Crow played basically in the same era as Paul Hornung. I am not comparing them at all . Paul wins it big time. I will say that John is a notch below Paul, which is not a knock on JDC. Paul is considered to be one of the top 100 best players of all time because of his kicking as well as other positions. Paul was a 2x Pro Bowler and 2 first team All Pro. John was a 4 time Pro Bowler. He was not named first team All pro in the “recognizable teams”. He was first team All Pro in 1959 and 1960 and 2nd team All Pro in 1962 by by the Sporting News. That is a low resume, yes. That is why I am not completely sold. Where am I more sold on is that : He had 38 rushing and 35 receiving TD’s for career. 73 total offensive TD’s(not including 1 fumble recovery for TD). I am not 100% sure where that ranked at the time of his retirement, but I believe only Don Hutson, Lenny Moore, Bobby Mitchell, Frank Gifford, Art Powell, Joe Perry, Don Maynard, Jim Taylor, and Tommy McDonald had more and Art is the only one not in as well and who has a better case IMO. Thoughts on all three?
third paragraph I meant to say: The next player, not few are. sorry.
Most Canton enthusiasts seem to support Speedie. I’ll have to look more into him.
Forester has a decent resume I suppose but there are many more linebackers in the Seniors Pool I’d like to see get the nod.
I never even thought of John David Crow as a Hall of Famer, just as the Heisman winner back in 1957. I guess he did have a decent career. Hall of Fame? I will have to think about that one.
The person I’d like to bring attention to now is Fred Arbanas, former receiver for the Chiefs. While Otis Taylor gets all the love, Arbanas made 5-6 AFL All Star teams, part of the AFL All Time Team and has the equivalent of three First Team All Pro Selections and Five Pro Bowls. However, looking at his raw numbers, I’ve seen better.
Thoughts on Fred Arbanas and the Hall of Fame?
how about claude humphrey for the hall of fame? he was passed over an senior finalist once but i thought he was a great player for the falcons and the eagles
2/6 is Humphrey’s profile. Humphrey, Nobis, Kunz and Van Note all have Hall of Fame arguments and yet none of them have been elected. Not sure why. Those were some really bad Falcon teams back in the day but they still had some really talented players.
Thoughts on recent players brought up.
–I’m all for Mac Speedie as well for the HoF — he was a Senior finalist once a number of years ago and was rejected. An issue for him is a comparatively short career (he jumped to the CFL, which apparently angered Paul Brown sufficiently that he bad-mouthed Speedie after that), but if one supports Del Shofner and Shannon Sharpe for the HoF, Speedie’s right in that mix.
–Bill Forester strikes me as just under the top crust of 50s-60s OLBs not in the HoF (Chuck Howley, Maxie Baughan, Joe Fortunato, Robert Brazile, and Larry Grantham), though his 4(3AP)/4/none profile is pretty good. He’s in good company with guys like Mike Stratton at 4(3AP)/6/allAFL and Isiah Robertson at 3(2AP)/6/none.
–if RBs weren’t one of the most over-represented HoF positions, John David Crow might merit more consideration — but so would players like Rick Casares and Don Perkins and Ken Willard. Floyd Little strikes me as mistake enough — I’m not sold here.
–agreed that Claude Humphrey at 5(2AP)/6/none should be a HoF-er. For me, he’s arguably the most deserving of those older Falcons Corey mentioned. His getting voted down as Senior a couple years ago was one of the dumber decisions made by the HoF voters.
–the problem with Fred Arbanas is the same one faced by AFL running backs (Paul Lowe, Clem Daniels, Abner Haynes, Cookie Gilchrist) and the HoF — the best the league had to offer at the time, but arguably not enough for the HoF. Considering that TE contemporaries John Mackey and Mike Ditka and Jackie Smith are in and Pete Retzlaff and Jerry Smith remain outside (both these last with little chance of getting elected despite very impressive numbers), it’s hard for me to see a good case for Arbanas.
Smith had a 1/2 profile and Retzlaff a 1/5 profile. Football-reference tells us Arbanas has a 3/5 profile. Keep that in mind.
I personally would rank Kunz ahead of Humphrey but I don’t think Humphrey is too far behind.
I agree on Forester. Too many good linebackers and I don’t know whom he would rank above. I certainly wouldn’t put him above the big four of Howley, Gradishar, Brazile and Baughan.
And it looks like Moss is out for HOF finalist list in 2017 and Ward is in.
This probably will make things easier on the logjam for wide receivers, hopefully.
Perhaps, if the current backlog is cleared out in 2013 and 2014, before Harrison, Holt, Bruce and Owens all start to appear in the ballot at the same time by 2016.
Hines Ward increased his chances perhaps by retiring and Randy’s stock is neutral. He(Randy) should not have to wait no longer than 6 years. Ego aside, he is considered to be top 10 WR of all time, easily. If the 49ers win the Super Bowl in the 2012 season with Randy Moss having somewhat to do with it; certainly, not asking for the same type of season he did with the 2007 Patriots; but, if he can put up reasonable numbers and contributes in a good way; I think that could help his stock. We will see how that works out. Issac Bruce, Hines Ward, and Torry Holt should have to wait some time. There should be a “peaking order”; Randy Moss+Terrell Owens+ Marvin Harrison are all in the first group. Than Torry Holt+Issac Bruce+Hines Ward+Jimmy Smith(best next WR).
hines ward definitely has the stats and the numbers to be considered for the hall of fame
In regards to the WRs from the 2000s decade I would consider Ward to be best selection after Moss, Owens and Harrison, but I would agree that Holt and Bruce will await for those three to be elected first and then some interesting debates (and yet another potential WR backlog) between Ward, Bruce and Holt.
What I like about Hines was not only his 1,000 receptions but also his exceptional blocking skills as a wide receiver. And he is the only WR throughout this whole bunch to have: two rings and a Super Bowl MVP.
Paul, I agree with you that Moss/Owens/Harrison are the top crust, then Holt/Bruce/Ward, for this time period. My guess is that we may see another logjam in the top crust similar to the Carter/Brown/Reed one now existing — the result then being a similar type of delay for them, though I do think all of the Moss/Owens/Harrison trio will be elected eventually. That alone may doom the Holt/Bruce/Ward group entirely given how strict HoF WR standards have traditionally been.
And I agree that discussions regarding the relative HoF merit of Holt/Bruce/Ward will get really interesting. No question they constitute their own logjam.
Any edge Ward gets in intangibles such as winning a Super Bowl MVP and being a Steeler and a having a supposed prowess in blocking will be offset by Ward’s decidedly anemic lifetime yards per catch numbers (12.1) compared to Holt at 14.5 and Bruce at 14.9.
Lifetime receptions are a bit of a wash — Holt has 920, Bruce has 1024, Ward has 1000, with Holt having the shortest career and Bruce the longest. Career TDs are a bit of a wash too here: Holt has 74, Bruce has 91, Ward has 85. Bruce might have a slight edge just because he leads in both categories, regardless of career length.
Postseason honors actually favor Holt here a bit — Ward is lowest at 0/4/none, Bruce a little better at 1(0AP)/4/none, Holt at 1(1AP)/7/00s.
Given all this, I wouldn’t be surprised if the voters can’t decide who to elevate into the HoF from this second-tier trio and just leave them all out.
I think the voters will look at the two Super Bowls Hines Ward has, including the MVP from Super Bowl XL and they will vote him in.
Hines is a better football player than all them because he was head and shoulders above in blocking. Almost the same way Don Hutson was in receiving, but not to that level or degree. Don was way better in receiving than anyone at his time. He had three times as many receiving TD’s than the 2nd most all time at the time of his retirement. He had 99. Not too bad. 0/4/is low indeed. Not trying to compare the two,(Which,I will compare them. I lied.) they played different positions, but John Riggins had a low profile 1/1/80s. Indeed he made the All 80s decade team and Hines didn’t. Hines has more pro bowls and both have an SB MVP. John did hit his peak during the end of his career. But he was up and down in the beginning. Hines Ward was a 3rd round pick. John was a 1st. John was being labeled already and faltered a bit in the beginning of his career from 1971-1977; he missed 21 games;3.0, 3.5, 3.6 yards per rush in three of those 3 seasons. Hines has missed 7 games in his 14 year career, no more than 3 in a season. Hines being a 3rd round pick, he didn’t play much on offense. He was the 4th leading receiving with less than 300 yard receiving. he played more the following season(1999); they started him in 14 out of the 16 he played in, and was their 2nd leading receiver. In 2000, he was their leading receiver. Than, in eight out of the next nine seasons, Ward had at least 975 receiving yards, which he did only twice; the only season he didn’t was in 2007, with 732; he was out 3 games; the rest, not including the seasons mentioned before, he had at least 1,004 receiving yards in each season. That is succeeding beyond your expectations. In your first 11 seasons in the NFL. Counting numbers are what people go by, He is in 8 in receptions, top 18 in yards, and top 13 in receiving TDs. Like I mentioned before, Hines Ward is the role model for wide receivers today on how to block because he was pretty damn good at it.
And also, Hines was loyal to one team. I think that is something to think about vs the other wideouts he is competing against.
I think Hines Ward will eventually be elected to the HOF because he played for the Steelers and because of his anecdotal reputation as “the greatest blocking receiver of all time.” Personally, however, I don’t see much difference between his case and that of Rod Smith. The stats of both players are depressed by the fact they played in more balanced offensive systems. From 1997-2006, Smith’s Broncos averaged 228.5 receiving yards per game, and from 2001-2010 Ward’s Steelers averaged 227.5. For comparison, Torry Holt’s Rams from 1999-2008 averaged 274.1 receiving yards per game. Ward’s career stats look slightly better because he started for two more seasons, but comparing their best 10 seasons shows they were very similar. Hines Ward (2001-2010): 154 starts, 830 catches, 10,146 yards, 72 touchdowns. Rod Smith (1997-2006): 157 starts, 827 catches, 11,000 yards, 65 touchdowns. Rod Smith had two more 1000 yard seasons (8 to 6), and Ward made one more Pro Bowl (4 to 3). Both won two Super Bowl rings, and both had an MVP-level receiving performance in a Super Bowl, although only Ward got the MVP. Ward probably was a slightly better blocker, but Rod Smith was a very good blocker in his own right and did not accrue the numerous flags and fines that Ward did. It’s hard for me to see how someone could support one for the Hall of Fame but not the other.
Between Trent Green,Marc Bulger, and some QB named Kurt Warner, Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce had several good quarterbacks throwing them the ball for the most part; and Marshall Faulk at running back. Rams would not of won it all without the great play of Kurt and Marshall for the duration of the regular season and playoffs. Kurt Warner is top twenty, twenty five quarterback of all time and there are more than twenty quarterbacks in the Hall. I am also intrigued about the idea of Rod Smith to the Hall. Rod Smith had easily a top six quarterback of all time in John Elway throwing him the ball and a very good running back in Terrell Davis on offense, making Rod Smiths’ job just a little easier; and Steve Atwater on defense; who has a better case at his given position than Rod. Hines had Ben Roethlisberger, Tommy Maddox, and Kordell Stewart. Kordell and Tommy were serviceable at best. Marc Bulger and Trent Green were good. Brian Griese and Jake Plummer were better than Tommy and Slash. Yes Ben is a great quarterback. He should, if he stays healthy, make the Hall; but just for the sake of this argument, Ben is inferior to John and Kurt; but that is not a testament to Bens’ career. If you think I am against every wide receiver besides Ward, I am not. I am just saying what I personally see.
How do you think Ben’s off the field incidents will affect his Hall of Fame chances?
If Ben doesn’t make it because of it, than Ray Lewis should be “questioned” because at one point he was accused of murdering someone. I doubt Ben misses it though. Of course, barring an injury. It will effect his stock yes. Brian Urlachers’ chances? I like them.
Brad, Hines Ward actually started more than three times as many games with Big Ben as his QB than Rod Smith started with Elway as his. Here are the breakdowns:
Starting QB’s in Hines Ward’s starts:
Ben Roethlisberger 102
Kordell Stewart 41
Tommy Maddox 31
Mike Tomczak 5
Kent Graham 4
Charlie Batch 4
Dennis Dixon 3
Starting QB’s in Rod Smith’s starts:
Jake Plummer 54
Brian Griese 48
John Elway 30
Gus Frerotte 7
Steve Beuerlein 5
Jay Cutler 5
Bubby Brister 4
Chris Miller 3
Danny Kanell 2
Yes indeed. Rod Smith was an excellent wide receiver. John Elway, Shannon Sharpe, TD, and Steve Atwater were good players in their every right and were a big reason why the Broncos won the Super Bowls along with Rod. That is my point; giving credit to where it is due and Rod deserves credit, but not as much as the others I mentioned. At least not more than John , TD, or Sharpe. Maybe Hines doesn’t deserve as much as Big Ben, but Hines deserves a good portion of it.
My point about the quarterbacks was that Brian Griese was not all that bad compared to Tommy Maddox;same with Plummer vs Slash; Brian had 71 TD’s-53 ints during his time with Denver. Tommy had 42 TD’s-40 ints during his time with the Steelers. Slash had 70 TDs-72 ints with the Steelers. Jake Plummer had 71 TD’s-47 ints with Broncos.
I would also encourage anyone who supports Hines Ward and/or Rod Smith for the Hall of Fame to consider supporting Jimmy Smith as well. Jimmy doesn’t have the Super Bowl pedigree of those two, and he’s certainly not as famous as Hines Ward, but he does have better receiving numbers than they do. From 1996-2005 the Jaguars averaged 225.5 receiving yards per game, fewer than Rod Smith’s Broncos or Ward’s Steelers. That’s 35 to 50 fewer yards per game than teams like the Bruce/Holt Rams, Moss/Carter Vikings, and Harrison Colts — for a ten year period. However, despite the conservative offense, Jimmy managed more catches and yards in that ten year period than everyone except Marvin Harrison. Compared to Rod Smith and Hines Ward, Jimmy has more Pro Bowls (5) than either, more 1000 yard seasons (9) than either, and more 1200 yard seasons (5) than both combined. He’ll probably never even make the Semi-Finalist list, but if he had played in a more pass-heavy offense in a bigger market, I think Jimmy would be mentioned alongside Moss, Harrison, and Owens.
Just for fun:
Starting QB’s in Jimmy Smith’s starts:
Mark Brunell 97
Byron Leftwich 37
David Garrard 8
five other guys 8
A couple thoughts on blocking and a HoF case for WRs. What WRs were elected to the HoF with marginal receiving stats but got “over the hump” because of their blocking ability? I can’t think of any. In fact, I can’t even think of any TE who did this, and players like Kellen Winslow and Shannon Sharpe are exhibits A and B for the opposite circumstance.
And it’s hard to know where fact vs. hype runs on blocking skill and Hines Ward. While you’ll see people who crow about Ward’s capabilities here, you’ll also find detractors who say Ward was overrated in this capacity and was in fact a dirty player who got some visibility with some less-than-kosher hits on opponents. I don’t have film to study, so I’m not sure of the answer.
The “loyal to one team” argument doesn’t necessarily wash here, either, or Rod Smith would already be in.
big ben is a hall of fame quarterback for sure maybe not first-ballot, but he will get in once he retires, i mean 3 super bowl appperances, 2 wins, couple of pro bowls, thats more than enough to get into the hall of fame
I completely understand. To say his hits were “less-than-kosher” is a valid opinion. . Indeed it is the opinion of many; does he get over-hyped about his blocking ability? absolutely ; at the same time, it is hard to say who is a good blocker and who is below average. Bill Russell in the NBA world, is considered to many as the greatest defender of all time, but they didn’t keep statistics of blocks and steals when he played. It is comparing apples and oranges. My point is , there aren’t any statistics on blocking. Hines, where or not you liked his style, was an above average blocker to most. Hines is considered to be one of the best Steelers of all time also. They have had some(more like several) greats over the years: Terry Bradshaw, Franco Harris, Jerome Bettis(will be in probably 2-3 years max), Lynn Swann(would have had hard time getting in without the postseason accolades), John Stallworth, Mike Webster, Mean Joe Greene, LC Greenwood(HOF worthy), Mel Blount; two of the best Linebackers to be on one team in Jack Ham and Jack Lambert. Donnie Shell (HOF worthy). And can’t forget newly inducted Dermontti Dawson. Than other include Bill Dudley, Jack Butler, Ernie Stautner, Rod Woodson, and John Henry Johnson and others. I would say that is a good selection of talent right there.
Rod Smith 849 rec (19th), 11389 yards (24th), 68 Tds
Hines Ward 1000 rec (8th), 12083 yards (18th), 85 Tds
End of story Ward is getting in HOF at some point Smith is not even going to be a finalist, no need to overthink or overanalyze, Smith is not one of the top WRs from the 1990s while Ward is one of the top 6 from the 2000s. There simply is not going to be room in the HOF for someone (Smith) 19th in career receptions, which will be much lower in coming years as more players pass him. 800+ career receptions is not as impressive as it once was, 950-1000+ is the new standard for WRs, just look at the issues with Carter, Reed and Brown and tell me that Smith would get any consideration for the HOF at any time in the next 20 years??
Paul, I don’t think it is overthinking or overanalyzing to look beyond career totals. Vinny Testaverde has more career yards and touchdowns than Jim Kelly — is it overanalyzing to argue that Kelly was better? Hines Ward/Rod Smith is a case where the differences in career totals are due solely to opportunity, not talent. Rod Smith was not a starter in the NFL until age 27, while Hines Ward was starting for the Steelers by the time he was 23. Those extra years and games account for Ward’s edge in career totals, but it’s not like he was playing at a HOF or even a Pro Bowl level in them. In 1999 he went 61-638-7, basically the same as his teammate Troy Edwards. In 2000 he dropped to 48-674-4, similar to teammate Bobby Shaw. To argue that Ward’s career stats make him a HOFer and Rod Smith’s don’t is basically to argue that those two seasons make the difference. I’m not buying that — I think Smith’s long perseverance to become an NFL starter after being an undrafted free agent should work in his favor instead of against him.
You are right that Ward will get in the HOF someday and that Smith probably won’t, but that doesn’t make it fair or correct. I see a lot of posts on this page that champion the cases of guys who were left out of the HOF when a player with similar credentials was elected. When Hines Ward does get elected, Rod Smith will become one of those who is unfairly snubbed.
How many Pro Bowls do you think somebody should make to be a serious candidate without many AP 1st teams?
I’m curious. Dennis Harrah was a seven time All Pro but made just one first team but he made six Pro Bowls.
Maxie Baughan made nine Pro Bowls but just one first team as well. He’s seen as a serious Hall of Fame candidate and he’s in my top ten.
I haven’t commented in awhile, but thought I’d weigh in on this whole debate. Hines Ward is a pretty unique case, as he has a lot of positives and negatives in his case. I personally do think that he’ll make the hall of fame eventually, but I’d say he’s looking at least a 5-10 year wait, and he may even be forced into the Senior’s Pool. He really only has one thing that makes him standout over the rest of the receiver candidates, and that is his Super Bowl MVP award.
However when I look at his career, I am 100% inclined to agree with bachslunch and kyle. The guy is overrated, and for reasons I know I’ve brought up on this forum before. As far as I’m concerned, Ward has benefitted greatly from his perception in the media. He’s been hyped for years as the an amazing blocker, but as others have mentioned, this claim is more hyperbole than fact. I don’t see why this should matter anyway. Is Edgerrin James going to get put over the top by his blitz-pickup skills? Hell, Roger Craig was a great fullback and lead blocker for the early part of his career. Even though he’s easily more qualified than Ward, this hasn’t helped him any.
I think Ward’s career numbers are solid, especially the TD’s, but is that really enough? What I feel Ward really lacks is a period, or even a season of dominance. His 2002 season was pretty darn good, and was deserving of at least a 2nd team All-Pro selection, but the rest of his career seems to strike me as more or less above average to very good.
His career averages are where he really is a step behind for me. He had only 55.7 yards receiving per game, which puts him well behind all of the other elite receivers from his era (Owens, Moss, Harrison, Bruce, Holt, both Smiths) and even a bit below guys like Darrell Jackson and Laveranues Coles. His 12.1 yards per catch is also beyond average, especially when you consider the fact that he only cleared 13 yards per catch 3 times in his career while he was a starter.
Another issue that I have with Ward is that his individual numbers rarely rise above the any of the guys he gets compared to from his era. If you compare him to the 7 other guys mentioned from his era, here is how he compares:
Receptions: 4th (and he has a decent chance at getting passed by Moss this year who is 46 behind him)
Receiving Yards: 7th
Receiving TD’s: 5th
Yards/Reception: 8th
Receiving Yards/Game: 8th
100 Yard Games: 7th
Pro Bowls: 7th
First-Team All-Pro’s: 5th
The only place he stands above is with team success. I get that he won 2 Super Bowls, but can you honestly say that they won because of him? No, they won with defense and a great running game.
Finally, the stuff about Smith and Smith not being elite receivers in the 90’s, but Ward being in the top 6 in the 2000’s is unfair and completely dependent on when these 3 started their careers. Ward’s whole peak happened in the 2000’s, while the Smiths had theirs sandwiched around the turn of the century. I can honestly say that at no point in his career did I think that Hines Ward was a better receiver than Jimmy Smith or Rod Smith, and while Hines Ward is 10th all-time in receptions now…keep in mind that Rod Smith retired in 11th and Jimmy Smith retired in 7th. It hasn’t and won’t help them any.
Yes Hines’ numbers aren’t better than Jimmy’s nor Smith’s; cant disagree, they are facts. Hypothetical: If Rod or Jimmy got MVP for the Super Bowl(If Jimmy was in it) and Hines didn’t, than all of you would hold it against Hines to an extent. Hines was MVP in the biggest game in this sport we are talking about. So were several others, who weren’t all that special. Yes, indeed; but for the most part, SB MVP is a good accolade and has been won by great players(hall of fame players/future hall of fame players). Hines never had a season of dominance. Neither did Lynn Swann in a way. He never had 1,000 receiving yards in a season. Without the great play in the postseason/super bowls, Swann would have had a hard time getting in. It took Lynn over eleven times to get in as is. Probably wouldn’t of made it without it. Voters shouldn’t look past Hines’ Super Bowl MVP.
The HOF voters will not look past Hines 1000 receptions (which is better then either Smiths) and his two SBs with a SB MVP will get Hines much more attention from the voters. I am not suggesting that Ward will have an easy or quick path to the HOF (I would say 10 year wait), but it is easy to overanalyze players way beyond what the majority of HOF voters due. The fact is that the key is get to the list of 15 finalists to allow for that debate and Ward has a much more direct path to that list then either Smith. Yes he will be blocked by other WRs and other players for many years but not because of either Smith. And no I do not place much importance on the blocking skill argument. I am telling everyone that in this modern age of offensive numbers there are going to be 800-900 reception WRs and 10,000 yard RBs not elected to the HOF.
Steven Jackson IMO shouldn’t be a “victim” so to say, (depending on how he finishes his career) of the whole notion about 10k RBs. His career is pretty consistent minus his rookie season. seven straight 1,000 rushing yard seasons is very tough to accomplish since the average “playing span” for a RB is less than 3.5 seasons. Is Steven a HOFer now? No. If he accumulates 11,000 rushing yards with two 1,000 yard seasons back to back, making it nine in a row, would leave little doubt about his worthiness for the Hall of Fame.
I’ve always seen Steven Jackson as a pretty good running back. For him to make the Hall of Fame means that he had the type of career of somebody who quietly put up a Hall of Fame career, came out of nowhere and snuck up on everybody. That does happen from time to time and I see Jackson could be one of those players.
I would agree if Jackson can secure 2 or 3 more 1000 yard seasons with additional all pro and pro bowl appearances he would have a good case, could also be helped by some playoff successes.
What is Alan Faneca’s stock at? Is he a 2nd ballot?
One of the greatest teams of all time, without question, is the 1985 Chicago Bears. 15-1, 3-0 in playoffs. Known for their outstanding running game in Walter Payton and with a serviceable fullback in Matt Suhey and backup quarterback Steve Fuller with 5 rushing TDs, Tim Tebow before Tim Tebow. Jay Hilgenberg was a solid Center, 2/7. He deserves some consideration as well as Steve McMichael who after Mike Singletary, Dan Hampton, and Richard Dent was the best defender. You may look at first glance that He is only a 2/2 and Dave Duerson is 0/4. Dave Duerson’s All Pro teams:
1986 1st Team All-Conf. Pro Football Weekly
1986 1st Team All-Conf. UPI
1986 2nd Team All-NFL Associated Press
1986 1st Team All-NFL Pro Football Writers
1986 1st Team All-NFL Pro Football Weekly
1986 1st Team All-NFL Sporting News
1987 2nd Team All-Conf. UPI
1987 2nd Team All-NFL Associated Press
1988 1st Team All-Conf. Pro Football Weekly
Steve McMichael’s:
1985 2nd Team All-Conf. UPI
1985 1st Team All-NFL Associated Press
1986 1st Team All-Conf. Pro Football Weekly
1986 2nd Team All-Conf. UPI
1986 2nd Team All-NFL Associated Press
1986 1st Team All-NFL Pro Football Writers
1986 1st Team All-NFL Pro Football Weekly
1986 1st Team All-NFL Sporting News
1987 1st Team All-Conf. Pro Football Weekly
1987 2nd Team All-Conf. UPI
1987 1st Team All-NFL Associated Press
1987 1st Team All-NFL Pro Football Writers
1987 1st Team All-NFL Pro Football Weekly
1987 1st Team All-NFL Sporting News
1988 2nd Team All-NFL Newspaper Ent. Assoc.
1991 2nd Team All-NFL Associated Press
Steve was 1st team All Pro by the AP in the Super Bowl season and was named to a decent amount of All Pro teams. I say he has an outside chance and a long shot, but he is certainly a worthy candidate. Jay has a better shot presumably.
That was a great defense that already has three players in the HOF. But unfortunately Duerson and McMichaels fall short of the career numbers and awards (BTW for that era I would only count 1st team AP, it seems overkill to start counting as equal all the other publication all-NFL teams).
steve hutchison is a hall of fame lineman
Steve indeed is. I would say between 3-6 ballot. Something of that nature.
I think the Hall of Fame voters are going to face a difficult challenge over the next 10-15 years when they will be evaluating the running backs from the 2000’s and 2010’s. Amidst the non-stop talk about how much the passing game has changed over the past 6-8 years, I think one of most underreported stories of the past decade in the NFL has been the slow de-emphasis on the running back position.
It’s amazing to look at how few backs put a consistent 10-year, or even 5-year run of elite play at the position anymore, and how incredibly rare a 3-down back is these days. What has resulted from this is a huge glut of running backs retiring with somewhere between 8 and 11 thousand rushing yards, 3-4 Pro Bowls and excellent, but very brief peaks as the top dog at the position. Obviously LaDainian Tomlinson is a Hall of Famer, and I think Edgerrin James is next in line, but I honestly can’t see another RB with even an above-average shot at induction from this era. When you look at guys like Eddie George, Corey Dillon, Tiki Barber, Priest Holmes, Shaun Alexander, Ahman Green, Jamal Lewis, Warrick Dunn, Clinton Portis, Fred Taylor, Thomas Jones, Ricky Williams, etc., I don’t think that there is anybody from that group you could induct without being forced to consider most of the rest of them as well.
Looking at the next wave, it’s looking just as underwhelming. There are 10 other running backs that played last year that have over 5,000 career rushing yards:
Steven Jackson
Frank Gore
Willis McGahee
Maurice Jones-Drew
Adrian Peterson
Michael Turner
Larry Johnson
Cedric Benson
Chris Johnson
DeAngelo Williams
Of those 10, Larry Johnson is clearly done, McGahee and Benson are clearly not Hall of Famers, Turner looks like he’s on his last legs already, and DeAngelo Williams is looking like he’s headed toward mediocrity because of a combination of age and the other RB’s on Carolina’s roster poaching carries.
Looking at the remaining 5, Jackson and Gore look destined to fall right into the same category as the other glut of backs I listed above. They are both still productive, and are two of the few 3-down capable backs in the league, but I can’t imagine either of them having a random explosive season after the age of 28 with so many career carries already. At 3 Pro Bowls apiece and no First-Team AP’s, they haven’t done enough to make the Hall of Fame now, so it’ll depend on how much they can pad their counting stats before they retire.
When it comes to Jones-Drew, Peterson and Chris Johnson, they definitely appear to be the best of the past 5 or so years, but it’ll be interesting to see if any of these guys can continue to produce at this level. Adrian Peterson just destroyed his one knee, Jones-Drew has already been having knee issues, and Chris Johnson’s past season raised some huge question marks about his future effectiveness. I wouldn’t say that any of these 3 are a guarantee at this point, especially with how quickly unproductive running backs get jettisoned from the league these days.
With so few truly elite running backs left, I get the feeling that we are headed for a logjam similar to the one faced with the 70’s-early 80’s wide receivers; tons of guys that deserve to be in the conversation, but hardly any that clearly standout above their peers, which led to 15ish years of Lynn Swann and John Stallworth debates and a bunch of guys like Cliff Branch, Drew Pearson, Harold Jackson, etc. heading to the senior committee.
Looking at that list you posted, Adrian Peterson definitely stands out over the rest to me.
Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Chris Johnson are the only threats as far as the young guys. Steven Jackson is a threat for sure with 7 straight 1,000 yard seasons, one of six to do so. Frank Gore was starting to look very promising in the beginning of his career. Not that he is bad now, not one bit, it’s just, he isn’t the same. Steven as is right now, of course he is not a big threat. Still have a chance. If he gets another season of 1k in rushing, his stock should go up.
With the recent changes in offensive play styles it is unlikely that we will see the 6 or more RBs elected to the HOF that was the norm for the decades prior to 2000. That number for the decade of the 2000 and 2010s will likely fall to 3 or 4. So yes it is very likely that some players with 10,000 rushing yards will not make the HOF and the number of those players will fall. Of the current RBS all are going to need more 1000 yard seasons, post season successes, and post season awards to position themselves for HOF consideration. Jackson, Johnson, and Peterson would appear to be the top 3 but they still have work to do and others could close the gap in coming years. However I do think that the role of the RB is changing and with bigger and faster defensive players the RB who can build a career many 1000 year seasons may be gone as wear and tear take their toll by age 30.
i don’t know about larry johnson though
Meanwhile we have Bill Parcells being talked about to be the interim coach of the Saints. If that happens I think there’s a chance he won’t be inducted into the Hall until he contracts some sort of disease that keeps him from ever coaching again.
Well they did have their chance in 2012.
If only they separately voted on coaches/contributors then maybe it would be easier.
I suspect in the minds of some HOF voters the chance he would end up back in coaching was a factor in their not selecting him, so for those voters they were not interested in using that chance in 2012 to elect him.
well, if he does coach again for the saints for just one year, that frees up a modern-era spot for 2013 to elect a player mainly a wide receiver
Junior Seau first ballot Hall of Famer? Hard to see a case against him. 6/12/90s. he has played in a NFL game playoff game in three different decades(1990’s, 2000’s,2010’s). His prime was from 1991-2002. He was a contributor on the 2007 Patriots, notching 74 total tackles, 3.5 sacks, 3 interceptions at the age of 38, starting in 4 games. That is not too bad.
It would be very hard for Seau not to be a first ballot, in my opinion.
i dont know, junior seau was a great linebacker in the 90s and early 2000s, i think he has enough to be a first-ballot type of guy in my opinion
Zach Thomas Hall of Famer? 5/7/00s is qualified. It’ll take him years to get inducted. Ray Lewis, Derrick Brooks, Junior Seau are first ballot Hall of Famers. Than after them, there are no Linebackers who’s resume is so much more superior than Zach’s.
Rarely is there a sure thing on Defense in the eyes of the HOF voter but I got to be believe Seau will be a first ballot guy. And he was such a model citizen too. :)
Of the following RB’s with 10,000 plus yds, who will be the RB with the highest total rushing yards not to make the HOF? Why? Anyone you wish hadn’t of made it already of this group?
1. Emmitt Smith+ 18,355 1990-2004
2. Walter Payton+ 16,726 1975-1987
3. Barry Sanders+ 15,269 1989-1998
4. Curtis Martin+ 14,101 1995-2005
5. LaDainian Tomlinson (32) 13,684 2001-2011
6. Jerome Bettis 13,662 1993-2005
7. Eric Dickerson+ 13,259 1983-1993
8. Tony Dorsett+ 12,739 1977-1988
9. Jim Brown+ 12,312 1957-1965
10. Marshall Faulk+ 12,279 1994-2005
11. Edgerrin James 12,246 1999-2009
12. Marcus Allen+ 12,243 1982-1997
13. Franco Harris+ 12,120 1972-1984
14. Thurman Thomas+ 12,074 1988-2000
15. Fred Taylor 11,695 1998-2010
16. John Riggins+ 11,352 1971-1985
17. Corey Dillon 11,241 1997-2006
18. O.J. Simpson+ 11,236 1969-1979
19. Warrick Dunn 10,967 1997-2008
20. Ricky Watters 10,643 1992-2001
21. Jamal Lewis 10,607 2000-2009
22. Thomas Jones (33) 10,591 2000-2011
23. Tiki Barber 10,449 1997-2006
24. Eddie George 10,441 1996-2004
25. Ottis Anderson 10,273 1979-1992
26.Ricky Williams (34)10,009 1999-2011
Tony P-Fred Taylor would probably be the back with the most rushing yards without a bust in Canton. Great career for Fred, no doubt, but he got hurt. If he didn’t get injured, he would be in the top ten in rushing yards all time. Edge should get in with two rushing titles, 11th on the all time rushing list, as you posted above;he has had 4 seasons with at least 1,500 rushing yards; only eight NFL running backs have had at least 12,000 yards rushing and 400 receptions in a career: Thurman Thomas, Marcus Allen, Marshall Faulk, LaDainian Tomlinson, Curtis Martin, Walter Payton, Emmitt Smith, and Edgerrin James. I would honestly say that is impressive.
yeah that is an impressive list of running backs there
I would have to agree with Brad. Definitely Fred Taylor. It’s too bad, because he was one of my favourite running backs and he seemed to have left so much on the table with all of the injuries he had. But with only 1 Pro Bowl, and similar stats to a lot of other RB’s from his era, I don’t think he has a shot.
I could see Bettis as doubtful for Canton but for the fact John Riggins made it. Riggo was more cult figure IMO than a deserving HOF RB. He had one great statistical year.
Everything the Skins did during those times were puffed up by the media be it the Hogs, the Diesel, the Genius coach, the Smurfs, the bigmouth QB, or the fastest man in Football.
Ok, sock it to me Redskin fans, LOL.
I agree with you guys about Fred Taylor getting the overlook but if I had my druthers I’m leaving James out too but I know it won’t happen. I know stat wise it sounds crazy but I saw so many of Edge’s games and always felt like he was a clean up guy who didn’t have to really earn his yards with the fear of Peyton who dominated seemingly every game. I also feel like if Manning’s main RB makes it than why not Joe Montana’s (Roger Craig).
As far as Taylor, it’s a shame he and WR Jimmy Smith didn’t recieve the attention they might of elsewhere. Taylor did a lot of his yardage on his own much like Jones-Drew does now. I can’t even think of a great lineman in front of him? I don’t remember Taylor being injured until about his 9th year? As a Fantasy guy I know there’s a legion of folks who had lots of appreciation for Taylor and Smith’s greatness.
If we didn’t know what we know about Ricky Williams he would be a good HOF choice. Just look at his film! Power and speed!
Now I know I’m straying from the question. LOL. If up to me of the players not in the HOF that I WANT to see make it from list are: Corey Dillon (Pats have two more rings if he’s playing) , Ricky Watters, Jamal Lewis, Ottis Anderson
I agree with the current list of RB’s being HOF thin. I think it’s getting tougher to judge what a HOF RB is anymore. Like someone said the defensive players are so much stronger and quicker. On the other hand, running the ball doesn’t have the same emphasis which allows for catching defenses off guard for bigger plays. Lastly how much does the eye test go into a RB’s evaluation?
Does a RB such as Adrian Peterson need to have 10 years of production? IMO no! I’ve only seen Gale Sayers on film but I can’t imagine he was more illusive a runner. Other RB’s that fall that realm include ….? Feel free to fill in blank. :)
Adrian Peterson needs more productive seasons, yes indeed. But doesn’t need to be 10 seasons like Tony P said. If he can get 3 more seasons with an average of 1,200 yards in each season, he would have 10,352 rushing yards in his career. AP is Canton bound no doubt.
Of all the running backs in the league who have a really good chance to get in, AP has to be right up there.
Lots of great RB’s with power, speed and durability but here are my top ten elusive runners (just the moves) of the modern era: Gale Sayers, OJ Simpson, Walter Payton, Tony Dorsett, Billy Sims, James Brooks, Barry Sanders, Marshall Faulk, “LT” Tomlinson and Adrian Peterson. Honorable mention include: Joe Washington, Greg Pruitt, Metcalf (father and son), Otis Armstrong (one of the best seasons ever – than injured neck and never was the same),
Jared Allen Hall of Fame worthy? 4/4, 2 sack titles with two different teams in 2 different decades. He also has 4 career safeties, NFL record. In 2006, he led the NFL in fumble recoveries with six. In two days, he will turn 30. He should have another 4+ seasons left. In the last five seasons, he has accumulated 77.5 sacks. He is showing no signs of slowing down. Julius Peppers, Dwight Freeney, and Jason Taylor are in the same group as Jared. I can see all getting inducted because they are the best DE’s as far as active. Of course Michael Strahan is a Hall of Famer. He retired in 2007. He should be inducted within his first 3-5 ballots.
Peppers, Freeney, and Taylor are in. Allen could be in already and will be in with one or two more quality years.
Peterson has all but punched his ticket already and one more good year would make it a mortal lock.
Does Junior Seau’s death make him a mortal lock for the first ballot?
@Morgan – I think his 12 Pro Bowls, 10 All-Pros and Team of the ’90s makes him a mortal lock. His death, while tragic, probably won’t impact it either way.
Well, it’s just that it was brought up as though it was a question. Personally I’ve pondered the out-there idea of Seau getting a Roberto Clemente induction THIS year. Maybe that’s the emotion of the news speaking, but it does feel like a weak class.
I am sure Larry Allen, Bill Parcells and others would not agree with your assessment that the 2013 class will be a weak one. As much as I appreciate and value the career of Seau and the sentiment over his death and HOF induction, there is no flexibility for earlier election, and that is the way it should be.
What if Rich Gannon won the Super Bowl instead of the Bucs? Would that have helped his Hall of fame chances greatly? Obviously the Buccaneers deserved and earned the victory. But I honestly believe we would view Rich differently now if he won it. Between 1993-1997(didnt play in 1994) he had 2,396 total passing yards. That hurt his overall career numbers. If he stayed healthy, he would have easily eclipsed the 31,000 passing mark and over 200 TDs. Of course, that isn’t Hall of Fame worthy as is. He won NFL MVP in 2002 and was a 4x pro bowler. Those are solid accolades.
As you mention Gannon would have had to first win the SB plus stay healthy and play at a high level for a longer career. If both occurred then the answer would be yes, but how many other QBs would also be HOF contenders with those same “improvements”? (answer: many). One MVP and 4 pro bowls is a start, but far short of HOF qualifications alone.
He is nothing more than a preliminary player. If he had a Super Bowl victory and the the fact he was the teams best player and leagues most valuable player would have certainly boost his resume up a bit. He was 76-56 as a starter( started out 31-27). 20 games above .500 isn’t significant but since we judge QBs on wins-losses, he did not too bad.
Larry Fitzgerald deserves to go in the Hall. He needs to play another 3 seasons with at least 1,100 receiving yards he will have just short of 13,000 and he will be in. He is 28 and will be 29 in August. He will play another 4-6 seasons.