There are 13 first-time nominees, including a handful of high profile players with a chance to be inducted on their first attempt, among the 127 nominees for the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s Class of 2013.
Those first time nominees include offensive linemen Larry Allen and Jonathan Ogden, defensive linemen Warren Sapp and Michael Strahan, safety John Lynch, kicker Morten Andersen and running back Priest Holmes.
There are 53 offensive players, 31 defensive players, five special teams players, 14 coaches and 24 contributors on the list of nominees. From the 127, the Hall of Fame Selection Committee will select 25 candidates who will advance as semifinalists.
The semifinalists will be narrowed to 15 modern-era finalists plus two senior nominees – defensive tackle Curley Culp and linebacker Dave Robinson, who were selected by the Senior Selection Committee last month.
The voting where the actual Class of 2013 will be selected is conducted at a meeting on Feb. 2, 2013, the day before Super Bowl XLVII, at the Superdome in New Orleans. Bylaws call for between four and seven new members.
The other first-time nominees include defensive tackle Sam Adams, wide receiver Keenan McCardell, quarterback Steve McNair, center Tom Nalen and defensive tackles Ted Washington and Bryant Young.
Tony and I made predictions on who we think might be selected after the 2012 class was announced. You can read about that here.
The Hall of Fame’s announcement can be read here.
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I’d like to see Darren Woodson make the finalist list. He’s one of the most underrated modern era players. With all due respect to Haley, Woodson was the greatest defensive player in the Cowboys dynasty. The guy was freak of nature. He was a brutally hard hitting S who played LB in college, could run around a 4.3 40, and was very smart. He set the franchise tackling record and was able to shut down elite slot WRs and TEs (including Ben Coates in 1996) in 1 on 1 coverage. He was a forerunner of the Ed Reeds and Troy Polamalus of today. In his later years his veteran leadership made Roy Williams look like a real DB for several years. Dallas is still trying to recover from Woodson’s retirement.
My semifinalist predictions: Jerome Bettis, Roger Craig, Terrell Davis, Tim Brown, Cris Carter,Andre Reed, Todd Christensen, Larry Allen, Jonathan Ogden, Will Shields, Charles Haley, Warren Sapp, Michael Strahan, Kevin Greene, Steve Atwater, John Lynch, Aeneas Williams, Morten Anderson, Steve Tasker, Bill Parcells, Bill Cowher and Steve Sabol.
I named 22 players/contributors who are deserving. They normally cut down the list 25 players for the semifinalists. The following are on the fence and who could get named to the semifinalist: Sterling Sharpe, Joe Jacboy, Bryant Young, Karl Mecklenburg, and Dick Vermeil.
I can also see Steve Wisniewski as a semifinalist.
Not a bad list, though as usual there are several notable omissions and some interesting names that prove the point that anyone can nominate someone as a preliminary nominee (Jamal Anderson…really?). I won’t glare over the omissions again because I did that on the senior’s page, but I’ll offer a few observations (even though the process for picking these nominees is flawed, not picked by the voters, and somewhat random after the 50ish best candidates since anyone can nominate anyone for this list).
1. Nice to see so many 1st-time nominees made the list, as this was one of the strongest, and deepest 1st-timer class I can remember. I am surprised though that Ruben Brown was omitted. I know he didn’t deserve a few of his 9 Pro Bowls, but nonetheless…9 Pro Bowls should get you a mention! Looks like Vinny Testaverde is also destined to fall into the Dave Krieg zone, where big stats mixed with no meaningful wins or defining career moments doesn’t get you nominated.
2. The QB choices were very interesting, though I’m glad to see an increase on the 2 from last year. I didn’t expect Bledsoe to make the ballot again, and I was very surprised to see Danny White, Ron Jaworski and (especially) Neil Lomax make the list at the tail end of their eligibility. I would have rather seen Esiason and Gannon return instead, but all three would fall around 10th-15th (maybe a tad higher for White) if I was to rank the currently eligible QB’s so I wouldn’t call any of them a major stretch.
3. I’m happy to see Ottis Anderson, Sean Landeta, and Randall Cunningham on the list. None of these guys will get a sniff as modern era candidates, but I could eventually see all 3 garnering a senior’s nomination down the road.
4. There were some very random names that made the list for the 1st time or the 1st time in awhile including:
Jamal Anderson (he’s more deserving than Leroy Hoard, but come on)
Jeff Hartings (a merely above-average lineman who didn’t get nominated last year in his 1st year of eligibility)
Bill Fralic (a good surprise…he’s on the 80’s all-decade team so I’m surprised he doesn’t get nominated more often)
Dennis Smith (he belongs in the conversation with 6 Pro Bowls, but this is his first nomination in several years)
Nolan Cromwell (the most surprising inclusion since he retired in 1987 and as far as I know is no longer eligible)
5. Once again the lack of love for tight ends and linebackers was surprising, leaving several deserving players off the list again.
6. The DL list was very interesting, because it seems like there are 2 types of players on the list, players that are likely or potential semi-finalists (Strahan, Sapp, Haley, Klecko), and players that have no chance at ever getting inducted (everyone else save for MAYBE Bryant Young and Fred Smerlas). Meanwhile, several borderline candidates (Neil Smith, Michael Dean Perry, Marc Gastineau, Ray Childress, Leslie O’Neal) are absent again.
7. Whoever keeps mailing in for Carl Hairston, Ken Harvey, Gerald Riggs, Darryl Talley, and Dexter Manley is probably wasting their stamps.
8. The most interesting name on this list is Doug Blevins, a kicking coach guru who was born with cerebral palsy. Probably won’t get inducted, but he’s a great story.
9. The discussion on the message board at the bottom of the news story for the preliminary nominees list is absolutely outrageous, and almost completely uninformed (seriously it seems like no one gets the eligibility rules…I’m looking at you Ray Guy supporters!). Thankfully, there are sites like this where smart debates on players happen, and you can type “Atwater” without it getting censored.
10. It’s early, but here are my picks for the 25 semi-finalists:
Larry Allen
Steve Atwater
Jerome Bettis
Tim Brown
Cris Carter
Don Coryell
Roger Craig
Terrell Davis
Ed DeBartolo Jr.
Kevin Greene
Charles Haley
Karl Mecklenburg
Art Modell
Jonathan Ogden
Bill Parcells
Andre Reed
Steve Sabol
Warren Sapp
Will Shields
Michael Strahan
Paul Tagliabue
Steve Tasker
Aeneas Williams
Ron Wolf
George Young
Yeah, I’m not going out on much of a limb with those guesses, but I expect the surprises to be in the finalist and inductee rounds.
My suggestion regarding the continued omission of deserving players for the preliminary list would be to compile a list and in mid 2013 send it to the HOF. As I said before my understanding is that anyone can nominate players and there is no limit to the number of players on the preliminary list nor is it vetted (hence names like Jamal Anderson get included!)
Oh and here is my list of 25 semifinalists:
Larry Allen
Steve Atwater
Jerome Bettis
Tim Brown
Cris Carter
Don Coryell
Roger Craig
Terrell Davis
Edward DeBartolo, Jr.
Kevin Greene
Charles Haley
Clay Matthews
Karl Mecklenburg
Jonathan Ogden
Bill Parcells
Andre Reed
Steve Sabol
Warren Sapp
Will Shields
Michael Strahan
Paul Tagliabue
Steve Tasker
Aeneas Williams
Ron Wolf
George Young
Clay Matthews played a long time and give him credit for that and making 4 Pro Bowls. After that, he doesn’t have that much of a distinction over anybody really.
here is my list:
larry allen
steve atwater
jerome bettis
tim brown
cris carter
don coryell
roger craig
terrell davis
eddie george
kevin greene
charles haley
joe klecko
jonathan ogden
bill parcells
andre reed
sterling sharpe
steve sabol
warren sapp
will shields
michael strahan
paul taglibue
steve tasker
aeneas williams
ron wolf
george young
My list was a prediction of what the voters would decide not whom I would select and for whatever reason Clay Matthews has been a 25 semifinalist recently. I assumed all 20 semifinalists from last year would carry over plus four of the 1st year nominees and then added Steve Sabol.
Shane Lechler is deserving one day if he continues what he is recently doing. In his last 428 punts he has averaged 49.4 per punt.
the only punter that should go in next or any special teamer for that matter is ray guy and also steve tasker from the bills they need to get in before any other special teamer gets in
Here is my list of 25 finalists.
1. Ottis Anderson
2. Roger Craig
3. Jerome Bettis
4. Tim Brown
5. Cris Carter
6. Andre Reed
7. Sterling Sharpe
8. Will Shields
9. Jonathan Ogden
10. Larry Allen
11. Charles Haley
12. Warren Sapp
13. Michael Strahan
14. Kevin Greene
15. Clay Mathews
16. John Lynch
17. Aeneas Williams
18. Steve Atwater
19. Morten Anderson
20. Todd Christensen
21. Bill Parcells
22. Bill Cower
23. Ed DeBartolo Jr.
24. Robert Kraft
25. Art Modell
Art Modell but no Steve Sabol?
Steve Sabol and his father did a lot for the NFL but we just put his father in. Art Modell has done a lot for the NFL in ite entirety and the cities of Baltimore and Cleveland as much as those fans would hate to admit it. I might put Sabol over M. Anderson or Cower.
Joe Klecko should get in eventually. He shouldn’t have to wait until the Senior Nominee, but it is looking like it. He was named First Team All Pro as a Defensive End ,Nose Tackle and named 2nd Team All Pro as a Defensive Tackle. Went to the Pro Bowl in all three positions; when making the Pro Bowl meant something, unlike today with the fan vote.
i wouldnt be surprised if joe klecko gets into the 25 semifinalist list he was that great of a player back in the day
I have no problem with Klecko in the field of 25, hope he can make that move some year, just not so sure he can push in and move someone out this year.
i think he could, his body of work in that period of time is nothing to sneeze at u know. but then again there are a lot of deserving canidates willing to make that list to 25 semifinalists
yea the cutdown from 120+ to 25 is brutal as there are always deserving players left out.
i know. its a shame too. they need to expand the induction to 10 instead of between 4-7 each year so there is no backlog of players
will not argue with that there is always 3-4 deserving players left out because of the 4-7 rule
Now Then on to my semifinalists by Position
RB
Jerome Bettis
Roger Craig
WR
Tim Brown
Cris Carter
Andre Reed
TE
Todd Christensen
OL
Larry Allen
Joe Jacoby
Jonathan Ogden
Will Shields
DL
Charles Haley
Joe Klecko
Warren Sapp
Michael Strahan
LB
Kevin Greene
Clay Matthews
Karl Mecklenberg
DB
Steve Atwater
John Lynch
Aeneas Williams
Contributors/ Coaches
Eddie Debartolo
Art Modell
Bill Parcells
Steve Sabol
Art Rooney Jr
interesting choice with joe jacoby
Why wasn’t Corey Dillon not on the list? The others are fine, but it is hard to fathom why Corey isn’t.
Really good question Brad. His last year was 2006, so he definitely should be eligible. It is surprising he isn’t on the list, given some of the other names on there…
ok player, but not a hall of fame player had some good years wit the bengals
I’m not saying he is a Hall of Famer(right away). He could be down the road via Senior Nominee. He had good seasons with New England as well Chris. 2004: 1,635 rushing yards, 13 total TDs. 2005: 13 total TDs and 2006: 13 total TDs. He finished in the top ten six times in rushing yards.
Dillon is 17th in all-time rushing yardage with 11,241 yds. He has seven 1,000 yd seasons and scored 89 career TDs including 13 TDs in each of his last 3 seasons. Add 4 Pro Bowls and a 1,600 yd season in 2004 for a Super Bowl winning team I’m totally baffled as to why Dillon is missing and yet Stephen Davis and Jamal Anderson are listed. The PFHOF need to do a much better job vetting these prelim lists.
I remember Dr Z of cnnsi mentioning Chris Doleman had been omitted from the prelim list in 2005, and was only added after much lobbying.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2004/writers/dr_z/12/29/drz.hof.finalists/index.html
Cortez Kennedy is another who after making the list in 2006 as a first time eligible candidate was mysteriously snubbed a year later in the 111-name prelim list. Both of those guys of course were elected in subsequent years.
http://www.profootballhof.com/enshrinement/release.aspx?release_id=2234
Not that I’m saying Dillon is in their class and should be a HOFer (Hall of Very Good imo), but he should at least receive a nomination with Richmond Webb, Deron Cherry and other deserving names mentioned here before.
Bo Knows34 i am in total agreement with you why davis and anderson and not dillon is baffling and why not chris dont you like him
Drew Brees just cemented his place in football history. Top 20 QB of all time for sure=Hall of Famer. Question is: First ballot?
definitely first ballot for drew brees absolutely
Agreed. Hard to argue against 295 passing TD’s to 152 Int’s, 42,462 passing yards, career completion percentage of 65.7, 95 wins as a starting QB; he has passed for 4,000 yards six times and 5,000 yards twice. On pace to have another 5k season. Won a Super Bowl for the Saints and was named Super Bowl MVP. In, 2008 was named Offensive Player of the Year. And to have 48 straight games with a TD pass just validates his candidacy.
and he is still continuing his legacy as one of the best quarterbacks to play the game
Re names that appear on Prelim Lists: as I understand it, in theory anyone can nominate an eligible candidate in writing, sending a name or list of names in a letter to Joe Horrigan c/o the PFHoF. That’s likely why one sees some really off-the-wall names on the list each year.
In practice, it’s pretty clear the PFHoF doesn’t do an especially good job monitoring the list or culling names from nomination letters. I used to send in nomination letters myself until I noticed that some of the names I put forth (most notably Mark Gastineau) never appeared, other names who should have appeared when eligible failed to do so (Cortez Kennedy, Randall McDaniel, both of whom were elected in late years!), and still other names (most notably Nolan Cromwell this year and Ken Riley a couple years ago) showed up on the list after they had fallen into the Senior pool.
Am thinking the best way to try and get the people on the list you think should be there is still to send a nomination letter to Joe Horrigan and hope for the best.
Re Corey Dillon: he’s likely going to join RBs like Ottis Anderson and Fred Taylor as one of the better players at his position to not be elected. My guess is that after LaDanian Tomlinson, it’s Edgerrin James who will be most likely to make it in from this time period as a RB — James has more lifetime rushing yards than Taylor or Dillon, and has arguably a bit better peak than either. Other RBs of the time like Shaun Alexander, Tiki Barber, Clinton Portis, Ricky Williams, Priest Holmes, and Jamal Lewis have relatively short careers and will probably form a logjam that none of them will be able to break out of.
I agree with bachslunch in that from the 1990s-2000s era there are just too many RBs with similar numbers and very little to separate them for consideration for election to the HOF. After LT and EJames the voters will likely have split opinions making it very hard for any of the other RBs to gather enough support to make the jumpinto the 25 and then 15 list of finalists, very similar to the current challenges facing the 1990s WRs. All the while more players from other positions from that era and more recent start to crowd the ballots.
dont forget about adrian peterson also in that mix
alex karras passed away today, one of the best defensive players to play in the nfl, does he have a chance as a senior canidate in the near future to get into the pro football hall of fame, despite his tv/movie fame and his stint on monday night football and that whole gambling issue with paul hornung who is in the hall of fame?
To chime in on a few things:
I agree that there is going to be a big logjam when it comes to the running backs that had their peaks in the early 2000’s. I fully agree that Tomlinson and James will be the only backs to get in from that era as modern era nominees, but I would stop short of comparing that situation to the current Carter/Brown/Reed 1990’s receiver logjam. I think a better comparison would be the 1970’s/early 1980’s receivers. With regards to the logjam with Carter, Brown and Reed, I don’t think that voters doubt that any of the 3 belong in the Hall of Fame, it’s more a case of who to put in first that will only get worse as Hall of Fame locks like Harrison, Owens and Moss become eligible. With the RB’s in question, it’s a case of several borderline candidates being indistinguishable from other.
You are looking at backs that either had short, excellent peaks with only decent counting stats (Holmes, Alexander), backs that put up solid counting stats, but were never really dominant for any extended period (Taylor, Williams, Dunn, Green, Lewis, Thomas Jones) and guys that were not weak in either area, but lack post-season honours (Dillon, Barber, possibly Eddie George if you count him as being in that era). With these RB’s, none of them retired above 14th on the all-time rushing list (only Dillon and Taylor finished top 15), only 1 scored over 100 TD’s (Alexander), none made over 4 Pro Bowls and only one made more than 1 All-Pro team (Holmes). In conclusion, they all kind of blend together in a sea of very good, but not great. This reminds me more of the current logjam preventing Cliff Branch, Drew Pearson, Harold Jackson, etc. from being elected where there was a big logjam of guys with 3-5 Pro Bowls, and very similar counting stats from that era. In the end, the Hall chose the one guy with a lot of Pro Bowls (Paul Warfield), the two guys with the most Super Bowl rings (Swann and Stallworth) and the guy with the best counting stats (Charlie Joiner) as modern-era inductees.
With Corey Dillon, he has a lot that theoretically should work in his favour (solid counting stats, a Super Bowl ring, decent amount of Pro Bowls – 4), but his hugest, perhaps fatal flaw is the fact that he never once made an All-Pro team. This would be my best guess as to why he hasn’t been nominated in any capacity yet, and hasn’t been added by the Hall t the preliminary list as some “can’t miss” candidates supposedly are if they don’t get any letters written about them by fans.
I’m not sure how Alex Karras’ death will affect his candidacy. I think that theoretically he’ll remain in the conversation thanks to being one of the best DT’s in the Senior’s Pool, but while it’s possible his death will soften some opinions on his gambling charges, I wouldn’t count on it happening.
Adrian Peterson is pretty well a lock for the Hall of Fame barring a career-ending injury. The early 2000’s backs were bad for sustained production, but the late 2000’s-Present have been even worse. If Peterson finishes with 100 TD’s, 10,000 rushing yards and 1 more Pro Bowl (all of which I think are reasonable), he’s a lock. Despite only being in the league for 6 years, he’s already shown more elite, sustained production than any running back not named LT since the turn of the century. I’m not a huge fan of judging a current player’s credentials, especially given how reckless Peterson runs, but I think he’s done plenty to already merit HOF discussion and he”s still young and performing well enough to realistically expect a couple more years of great production.
Unfortunately Alex Karra resides in a very deep seniors pool with numerous candidates as qualified (or more so) then he is. Also given how his qualifications are matched or exceed by others, his gambling past has and will continue be a factor for some voters, enough to keep him from rising to the top of that similar group of senior candidates.
As to Adrian Peterson it will be very interesting to see what the 2010s decade brings in regards to top RBs and the career numbers any of them will achieve given the changes in the game, typical declines in performance after the age of 30, and more teams running by committee. But the 2010s decade team will have two RBs selected so some will be worthy of consideration and certainly Peterson could be one of those. Since we are only in 3rd year of this decade it may be that one of the young RBS will still rise to the top this decade while in their 20s to become the best RBs of the 2010s.
but still alex karras was part of a great detroit lions defense in that 60s period along with that hall of fame secondary with lebeau, barney, lary.
paul I concur the problem that karras will have is that there will be more and more dl from the 70’s and 80s who are now in the senior pool that have the same credentials as karras or better i could be wrong what do you guys think
But the problem is that there are also many great players from other teams from the 1950s-1970s and other positions that are also deserving. As we have discussed before the seniors pool is very deep with many deserving players.
and that is why they need to expand the senior nominees to like 4 or something like that
Re Alex Karras. I have a significant problem with his gambling suspension, and am of the impression that Paul Hornung is a major HoF mistake just for that reason alone (and definitely for other reasons as well). Plus there are no shortage of HoF DL who played a good bit during the 60s (I’m defining this as 4 or more years during 1960-1969):
DT: Buck Buchanan, Bob Lilly, Henry Jordan, Merlin Olson, Leo Nomellini, Ernie Stautner
DE: Doug Atkins, Deacon Jones, Willie Davis, Carl Eller, Gino Marchetti, Andy Robustelli
That’s six of each, which does not suggest HoF short-changing. Consider further that the “weakest” DT HoF-er of the bunch would likely be Jordan (he took two tries as a Senior before finally making it in). And Jordan’s honors profile of 5(5AP)/4/none is better than Karras’s 4(3AP)/4/60s. Plus Karras isn’t the only DT of the decade with a potential HoF argument — there’s Roger Brown at 2(2AP)/6/none, Tom Sestak at 4(3AP)/4/allAFL, Ernie Ladd at 3(3AP)/4/none, and Houston Antwine at 4(1AP)/6/allAFL who surely have some sort of HoF argument.
Ben Roethlisberger passing Terry Bradshaw becoming the Steelers all time passer in passing yards, puts him in a good spot to making the Hall Of Fame. He holds six of the top ten Steelers single season passing yard marks, including the top two (two 4,000 yard seasons. Only Steeler in history to have at least one 4,000 yard season). He has a passer rating of 92.5, 10th best all time.
he along with eli manning are the jim plunketts of the nfl currently today
Jim Plunkett is closer to Archie Manning than Eli Manning. Plunkett’s career is like Joe Namath’s Two really good years and many overated ones!
I wouldn’t say Joe Namath. Joe had a 4,000 yard passing season in 1967. Frank Tripucka passed for 3,000 yards in 1960, first to do so. Joe deserves credit. Joe Namath was in the top ten in passing yards when he retired. Not too bad.
Ronde Barber is carving out a hall of fame career. He haf a pick six in yesterday’s game. That brings his career total to 45 interceptions and 8 for TDs. 14 total non-offensive TDs as well. What are his hall of fame chances?
definitely first ballot hall of famer right there, along with his predecessors warren sapp, john lynch, and derrick brooks
champ bailey is a hall of famer also
only a month away before the announcment of the 25 semifinalists or if its a tie like last year it will be 26
John Abraham has 118 career sacks and 6 in six games this year. He was named first team all pro three times(2001,2008,and 2010). What is his Hall of Fame status ?
Percy Harvin has the fifth best kick return average of all time with 27.8; He also has the fourth most Kick Return TDs of all time with 5. Offensively he has 3,165 receiving yards (18 TD’s) and 650 rushing yards (4 TDs). He is only 24. His future looks bright.
Re Percy Harvin — it’s far too early to guess here on him and the HoF, but comparing him to Desean Jackson this far, it’s the latter who has better stats. And historically, it’s what an elite KR does besides his return capabilities that pushes him into the HoF (Gale Sayers, Deion Sanders, Jack Christensen).
Re John Abraham. His career looks a lot like Richard Dent’s — long career, lots of sacks, sparse honors profile thus far of 3(2AP)/4/none. Other players fitting that description include Leslie O’Neal and Simeon Rice. And he’s behind contemporaries such as Jason Taylor and Michael Strahan. I’m unsure on him.
how about london fletcher?
Re London Fletcher: sorry, no way on the HoF. His profile is 0(0AP)/2/none, and that’s far behind the most decorated ILB/MLB folks of the time and slightly later such Ray Lewis at 8(7AP)/13/00s, Zach Thomas at 5(5AP)/7/00s, Brian Urlacher at 4(4AP)/8/00s, and Patrick Willis at 4(4AP)/5/too-soon-to-tell and counting. It’s also in the general neighborhood of good but not HoF-level ILB/MLBs of the time and a little later such as James Farrior at 1(1AP)/2/none, Tedy Bruschi at 0(0AP)/1/none, Donnie Edwards at 0(0AP)/1/none, and DeMeco Ryans at 1(0AP)/2/none. Al Wilson at 1(1AP)/5/none and Keith Brooking at 0(0AP)/5/none sit slightly above these folks but still well under the top crust.
I’ve noticed some heavy pushing in Fletcher’s direction already from what look like Redskin-biased sources to consider him HoF worthy (usually citing number of tackles), but given how well organized and persistent this fan base tends to be in such matters, that’s not surprising. Explaining why Fletcher belongs in over Wilson, Brooking, Ryans, Farrior, Bruschi, and Edwards is a tall order, to put it kindly.
BachsLunch i couldnt agree with you more
I’m not saying he will get in, but London does deserve consideration. He looks great in film,even at the age of 37. One more interception away from 35-20 (sacks-interceptions). Impressive. He has also played in 230 straight games.
He may deserve consideration but to do so he would need to get into the final 25, and there are simply too many more deserving players including others from his same position and era for him to make that jump. All too often people underestimate how hard it can be to get into the final 25, then of course into the final 15 where the candidates get individual consideration and debate in front of the all the voters at the annual election meeting. Many many players will never get that chance.
and thats why they need to expand it a little bit
Expand what? the 25 semifinalist list or the 15 finalist list? I am not so sure they have the meeting time to greatly expand the 15 finalist list where the only presentations and debates in front of all HOF voters occur as it is already a several hour long meeting.
Jimmy Johnson deserves to be inducted into the Hall of Fame. 9-4 in the playoffs with two back to back Super Bowl wins. Jimmy’s first two seasons, with a rookie and second year player in Troy Aikman, he went 8-24. Since than, he went 72-40 in seven seasons as head coach. He didn’t coach a long time in the NFL, but he was a winner.
Revisiting Darren Sharper;he deserves to be inducted. 4(2 AP)/5/00s, 63 career interceptions,6th best,and also 2 interception titles(also led NFL in interception yardage in a season with three different teams). Most interception yardage in a single season and 3rd most in a career. In 2009, he was a big part of the Saints’ Super Bowl defense.
darren was a very good player
i hope there is a tie for the 25 semifinalists like it was last year
only a couple more weeks till the semifinalists list come out
Will be interesting if there are any major surprises of exclusions or inclusions on the list or whether it is pretty much predictable
there probably will be you never know.
november 25th or 26th will probably be the date to announce the 25 semifinalists
Last year it was announced on the Tuesday before Thanksgiving which I suspect will be same this year (Nov 20th) as the HOF and NFL are very careful not to infer with press attention on games, so it will not be on a Sunday (25th), Monday (26th) or too close to the Thanksgiving game.
well, it definitely is going to be around that timeframe
Adrian Peterson is back and Canton bound.
comeback player of the year for 2012 just edging out peyton manning who will get his 5th mvp award
Peterson appears to on the path back, lets hope he stays productive and healthy for the next 4-5 years he will need to solidify his HOF career numbers
AP was named AP 3 times, he was named rookie of the year, next year offensive player of the year. He has a rushing title and is leading NFL in rushing yards this year, on pace for a career high as well. He has played in 83 games and is averaging 94.9 rushing yards per game, 4th best all time. Chris Johnson is back to the old Chris Johnson. Give him another year or two,then we’ll see what he is truly made of.
darn tooting
How productive AP and CJ are going to be over the next 4-5 years, including when they pass age 30 will ultimately determine whether they have a straight path into the HOF. At this stage in my view AP is closer then CJ. They both need more pro bowls, AP, 10000+ yard, 100+ TD careers, and some playoff successes would also help. At this stage they appear to be the among the leading RB candidates from the current era.
you dont need playoff success to be a hall of famer
I think that Chris Johnson needs a couple more good seasons to be considered for the Hall of Fame, but if AP continues his pace this year and finishes with a Pro Bowl and First-Team All-Pro nod, he’s clinched at least an eventual berth in the HOF. There are currently only 12 running backs that have made 5 or more Pro Bowls that aren’t in the Hall of Fame, and almost half of those (Mike Alstott, Greg Pruitt, Michael Bates, Keith Lincoln, Jon Arnett) made at least some of their Pro Bowls due to being a fullback or based on special teams play.
Among the remaining 7, 5 of them made 0 or 1 First-Team All-Pro teams (Ricky Watters, Rick Casares, Don Perkins, Chuck Foreman and Lawrence McCutcheon), suggesting that this is about the cut-off point for a running back that had a full career not shortened by injury. The other 2 that made more than 5/1 are LT and Jerome Bettis, both of whom will be in the Hall of Fame within the next 5 years. I think that for this current generation of running backs, the “being the best of their era” argument will matter more than any statistical milestones.
While passing numbers have sky-rocketed, and QB/WR numbers admittedly have become less important, RB numbers have dropped, and great numbers are at a premium. There are very few running backs currently playing that have a sure shot at 10,000 yards, and there’s nobody who I think will come close to challenging the likes of Smith, Sanders or Payton when it comes to statistical performance. Peterson is the only player of the late 2000’s/early 2010’s that has been consistently elite for more than a 5-year stretch, and with productive RB’s becoming consistently easier to find, the average lifespan of a running back is getting shorter with hardly any running backs lasting into their 30’s. There are only 5 RB’s in the league this year that are 30 or older that have rushed for over 100 yards: Willis McGahee, Michael Turner, Fred Jackson, Cedric Benson and Ronnie Brown, and aside from Turner and McGahee, they haven’t been very productive.
As for post-season performance, I honestly don’t think it will matter for this era. Since the year 2000, it’s been obvious that you don’t need an elite running back to win the Super Bowl. In fact only 1 team in the past 11 years (New England in 2004 with Corey Dillon) won the Super Bowl with a Pro Bowl RB, and they were already a Super Bowl team without Dillon. Less than half of the Super Bowl winning teams since 2000 even had a 1,000 yard rusher.
I guess the point of my argument is, AP is already a HOFer if he finishes the year strong, and anything he does beyond this will only serve to bump him closer to the 1st ballot.
No you do not need playoff success to get in the HOF but it can help contribute to the overall player contributions and career profiles. If CJ and AP end up in the top 5 of RBs from the 2010s decade (numbers and awards) they will certainly make the HOF but even after 2012 there are 7 more seasons in that decade and plenty of time for younger RBs to secure the awards and numbers. I do think AP is pretty close and CJ will need a few more years. Also the changing nature of the RB position will require the HOF voters to readjust their views of the RB position in terms of the value of the typical career numbers like 10,000 yards rushing and 100+ TDs.
Andre Johnson is definitely going into the Hall. He had 273 receiving yards on 14 receptions in Sundays game. He had back to back seasons of 1,500 yards receiving, never been done before and also 10,000 receiving yards to his credit. He will most likely make the Pro Bowl this year and possibly an AP team. His team could make noise in the playoffs. Jason Witten has the most receptions in Dallas Cowboys history, passing Michael Irvin. That warrant’s Jason Hall of Fame consideration. His problem is he is the third best Tight End of his era. But he is behind Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates, easily two of the top 7 or so Tight Ends all time. Reggie Wayne is also back in the mix for Hall of Fame consideration. Thoughts anyone?
I think that as long as these 3 (Johnson, Witten, Wayne) finish the season strong, and at least add another Pro Bowl to their resumes, they will be close to having minimum credentials.
Andre Johnson is neck and neck with Larry Fitzgerald as the best receiver of the late 2000’s/early 2010’s. Both are still pretty young, and barring injury will likely set the standard for statistical performance for this era of WR’s. I doubt that either player will be a first-ballot inductee, but a lot depends on how they finish their careers.
Jason Witten may be the 3rd best TE of his era, but since this was the era where the position exploded and became very relevant, I don’t think that will hold him back. I do believe that he will have a longer wait though, maybe around 10 years depending on how he finishes his career, but his post-season awards will keep him in the conversation until he gets inducted.
Reggie Wayne is an interesting case, but I personally believe that he already belongs. He will likely finish this year with another Pro Bowl appearance (his 6th), and barring a huge drop in effectiveness/injury will finish year in the top-10 all-time in receptions and top-15 in receiving yards. He’s kind of snuck up on a lot of people as he hasn’t gotten a ton of fanfare, but if he retires with a 6/1 profile, a Super Bowl ring, and huge counting numbers (it definitely isn’t out of the question he’ll retire 2nd all-time among WR’s in receptions), it’ll be hard to keep him out forever. Like Witten, I do expect a long wait though.
It’s always tough to say with WR’s, because they can fall off a cliff with no warning, and can fall out of the league very quickly if they don’t have special teams ability, aren’t willing to accept a lesser role, or suddenly become injury-prone. I remember thinking Marvin Harrison was going to challenge Jerry Rice’s records, Torry Holt was going to finish with 15,000 receiving yards easily, Hines Ward would blow past 1,000 catches and maybe surpass Cris Carter’s numbers, and Derrick Mason would hit 1,000 catches without an issue. In all cases, they got old fast and fell out of the league with Hall of Fame cases that fell all over the map.
The HOF has been slow to recognize TEs and with the career eras of Gonzalez, Gates and Witten overlapping it will make for some interesting HOF debates in the future. Gonzalez is a lock, but even Sharpe has to wait a few years for election. Gates career appears to be slowing down, but as a member of the 2000 decade team with multiple all pro and pro bowls he is going to get in eventually and Witten will need 4 or 5 more years to get over the 1,000 receptions he will likely need to get elected, there is some evidence injuries and age may already be taking a toll but he is having a pro bowl caliber year. However, age is never kind to most WRs, RBs, and TEs so he will need to overcome the typical 30s decline plus fight off the rise of the younger TEs now flooding the game and all pro and pro bowl slots. The changing roles of TEs, and the high quality young players at that position currently will require HOF voters to rethink the value of TEs in todays game
Any inside news or insights as to the timing of the semifinalist announcement by the HOF, a it should be any day now?
Witten is still only 30 and on pace for another 1,000 yd season and a career high in receptions (117). That would leave him with career numbers of just over 800 catches and approx 8,900 yds with 7 Pro Bowls and 3 AP All-Pros, 2 1st team. Lack of TDs (never had double digit TDs in a single season) are his biggest
drawback. His 42 career TDs are roughly half of Gates’ 80 TDs.
I have no inside information, but it should be any day now. The semi-finalists were announced last year on the Tuesday before Thanksgiving, and have been announced between the 22nd and 28th for the past 5 years.
Witten needs the 1,000 receptions but given how many recent and current WRs and TEs are or will be reaching that number, plus the general disrespect given TEs by the HOF voters, without more pro bowls/all pros he may have a long wait to get it (of course a SB could also help!)
Jason should make the Pro Bowl this year posting career highs in per game averages in yards and receptions, but Tony Gonzalez and Jimmy Graham are competing too in the NFC. It is still a quality season even if he doesn’t make the PB.
He has shot at record number of receptions in a season by TE so all pro may also be possible
Plus he is 30. He has at least another year or two left in him after this one. He has has 942 or more receiving yards in each of the last 5 seasons; this year on pace for 1,032. Calvin Johnson passed 7,000 receiving yesterday in his 81 game. I don’t know if that is the quickest, but I would have to say blindly, it is certainly top 5. Tony Gonzalez needs 12 receiving yards to amass 14,000 for a career. He should be considered for first ballot. 5/12/00s is too good to pass up with his receiving yards, receptions, and TD’s. We all know he can play another 2 years if he wants. He could get over 1,300 receptions if he wanted to. Antonio Gates is going to be elected sooner than later. Thoughts?
Well as I mentioned before until the HOF voters pay more respect to the TE position even Gonzalez may have to sit through a few elections. But perhaps he will be the one who finally breaks through as a first time TE selection. If Gates has no more great years with the career numbers and pro bowl/All pro he currently has I could see a long wait for him especially if he eventually ends up on ballot same time as Witten. There are all decade TEs from the 1980s and 1990s still awaiting election to the HOF.
im thinking its tomorrow or sometime next week that they will announce the 25 semifinalists for 2013
Probably Tuesday or Wednesday.
yep most likely those days there
Witten is not the “third” best TE of his era. He started the same year as Gates, has more receptions and yards than Gates, and will probably end up with significantly more. The only major metric where Gates has an advantage is tds, because the Cowboys have kept Witten in to block so much in the red zone over the years, do their detriment in my opinion. He has been a better blocker than Gates and Gonzales for that matter over the years, however, and is the most complete TE of his era. Since blocking is traditionally considered to be a vital function of a TE, it would be a shame if voters totally disregard it.
I agree with your assessment of Witten, just not to sure all the voters will see the comparison in the same way, resulting in a backlog of the the TEs splitting the vote not unlike the current logjam at WR. Also the continued lack of respect for TEs (including their blocking) by the HOF voters is stupid, but another factor that would hurt, certainly delay, his election.
From a resume stand point, Jason has an impressive one, but is not ahead of Antonio Gates. Gates: 4/8/00s , 80 receiving TD’s, 13.0 yards per reception with 8,151 yards. Witten: 2/7/none, 41 receiving TDs, 11. 1 yards per reception with 8,619 yards. 47% of Witten’s TDs are 9 yards or less. Antonio Gates: 40%. 53% of Witten’s TD’s are 10 yards or more. Antonio Gates: 60%. Best stat: Jason Witten has 9 TDs of 2 yards or less out of 42. Gates has 8 out of 80. Do the math. I support Jason Witten for making the Hall, but he will have to wait until Gonzalez and Gates are elected.
Pro Bowl comparisons are silly past a certain point. For example:
2011
Jason Witten – 79 receptions, 942 yards, 5 tds, no Pro Bowl
Antionio Gates, 64 receptions, 774 yards, 7 tds, Pro Bowl
Who really had the better season? Same with first team All Pro selections. With TEs they’ve been garbage over the past decade. Lazy, hack writers taking a shallow glance at receiving stats and nothing else. The yards per catch metric is more an indication of the type of routes they’re called on to run than anything else, and this year of the fact that the Cowboys have no offensive line, causing Romo to rely on quick passes to stay alive. Witten’s shown he can pose a deep threat too plenty of times over the years though.
What matters is that he has plenty of Pro Bowls to justify HoF induction at any time, and even a couple of first team All Pro selections to boot. Pretending such accolades are a precise measure in player comparisons is misguided. Witten’s been a superior blocker over the course of his career, and I’d much rather have him on my team than Gates. The All Decade roster was wrongly decided in my opinion. Of course, as on other threads, I’m not making predictions about future Canton inductions, in part because I have absolutely no confidence in the system to do the right thing. I’m just giving my own opinion about what SHOULD happen, and I’ll take issue with anyone who declares with certainty that Gates is better than Witten. I think Witten’s better. It’s at least debatable, given Witten’s superior blocking over the years, that he’s at least been roughly as good a receiver as Gates, and that their careers are still in progress. Gates will probably retain his advantage in touchdowns, but that’s just one variable. Witten has more yards and receptions, and will likely end up with significantly more before all is said and done.
Look at the past three years:
2010-2012 (through week 12)
Jason Witten – 265 receptions, 2654 yards
Antonio Gates – 146 receptions, 1928 yards
Witten looks to be pulling away. He’s currently on pace to set a record for single season TE receptions, which would be another HoF caliber feather in his cap. Regardless, he should (there’s that word again; I take nothing for granted) get an 8th Pro Bowl nod this year. He could get more in the future. He’ll also likely pass Shannon Sharpe in receptions and yards within the next couple of years, leaving him only behind Gonzalez among TEs. I don’t know if he’ll play as long as Gonzalez, but it is interesting to compare their receiving stats over each player’s first 9 years:
Tony Gonzalez (1997 – 2005)
648 receptions; 7810 yards
Jason Witten (2003 – 2011)
696 receptions; 7909 yards
Gonzalez is widely projected to be a first ballot HoFer based entirely on his receiving accomplishments, yet Witten’s numbers are very similar to his at the equivalent point in his career. Since Witten is a significantly superior blocker and all around TE, it’s not unreasonable to project them being in the same ball park in terms of HoF worthiness before all is said and done. He’s been amazingly durable and, like Gonzalez, could end up setting dramatic career marks. If it’s between Gates and Witten, I’d certainly induct Witten first.
Also, just for the record, since you brought up “math”, Witten has 42 receiving tds so far, not 41.
How they end their careers is what will separate Witten and Gates as far as the HOF voters will be concerned, if Witten gets to 1,000+ receptions as a TE that is a really hard number to ignore as a career accomplishment.
Sorry about the TDs. Didn’t realize I said that, but I did the math with him having 42. I do agree with your assessment on Jason Witten being the better blocker , but there is no statistic that can back it up. Antonio Gates has superior scoring over Witten via total TD’s. Receptions aren’t a significant measure of skill vs TD’s scored. Most receiving touchdowns scored is 197 by Jerry Rice and most receptions is again by him with 1,549 which is a ratio of 7.8(receptions-TD’s) . Antonio Gates reception-TD ratio is: 7.8; Witten: 18.5
they should be announcing the 25 semifinalists soon, possibly today or tomorrow since november is almost over
Running out of days.
I totally disagree with your apparent position that receptions are worthless compared to tds when evaluating individual legacy. Most tds, even from Gates, are short range. Receptions move chains, control clock, change field position, and put teams in position to score. If pure scoring was all that mattered then a whole bunch of kickers would be in Canton. Receptions are one coequal component of the traditional “receiving triple crown”, and traditionally reception milestones rightly receive a lot of attention. TDs are important, but so are catches, yards, and blocking contribution, and Witten leads in three of those four categories.
In all likelihood, Gonzalez will be elected before Gates and Witten are eligible. Once one of them is elected the other will soon follow, but they might split the vote for a while in the Final 15/Final 10 and knock each other out as I’m sure the 44 voters will more or less be split down the middle as well.
Receptions moves the chains. Yes, but not 9 yard receptions. TD’s win games, period.
Like I said before, I am in support of Jason getting inducted. I brought it up earlier in the year, like around september or so. Every stat is important, don’t get me wrong;it’s just, scoring to me and statistically, is rarer than receptions and yards. 80 receiving TD’s vs 42 is a significant difference. Do you see that or is it just me? Jason has more yards and receptions, as he should, being the one who was drafted in 2003. Not that it gives Antonio a bigger advantage, it doesn’t , but making a NFL roster as an undrafted free agent is tough to do.
Drafted or not, Gates actually started more games his rookie year than Witten, the latter splitting time with veteran Dan Cambell at Dallas in 2003. They had both solidified themselves as starters by 2004 and their careers took similar trajectories until recent seasons, when it looks like Witten is pulling away. I’m not sure being undrafted should matter to HoF voters, unless one would suggest he be graded on a curve (I know you’re not). If so then Tony Romo should start trying out yellow jackets even if he doesn’t win a Super Bowl. It’s worth noting that while Gates started catching passes from Drew Brees and then Phillip Rivers, Witten has sustained elite level play with QBs like Quincy Carter, Vinny Testaverde, and a late career Drew Bledsoe.
Yes, Gates currently has a significant advantage in touchdowns, but Witten has an advantage in the other key metrics, one that is growing in significance. Of course 9 yard gains create a lot of first downs, lol. If it’s 9 or fewer to go that’s an immediate first down. If it’s 10 or more to go you’ve set up an easy first down attempt. Of course Witten’s career average is 11.1 y/r, and will increase again if the Cowboys build an offensive line competent enough to allow time for deeper route development. He averaged about 12 y/r last year. The bottom line is that TDs don’t appear in a vacuum. Yards and catches matter too. The offense has to move the ball, and time after time, when the Cowboys absolutely needed a drive to get their offense going, Witten has been the go to guy. QBs, WRs. RBs, and coaches have come and gone, but Witten’s been the key to the Dallas offense for the past decade. Throw in his superior blocking ability over the years, and I’d vote for Witten first even if their careers both ended now.
My point about one being undrafted and the other not is: The player drafted, whether or not he plays one down in the regular season, preseason or at practice, he is on the team at that time. Undrafted players are not on any team. Every players needs to earn their position on the team to an extent, but draft picks are more likely to be on the team than undrafted players. They (undrafted players) need to earn their keep much more than draft picks. I understand your position and respect it and we all have different opinions. No one is right and no one is wrong; and also, You should note that Drew Brees of now is so much better than before. Drew was very inexperienced when Antonio Gates had him.
Drew Brees did make a Pro Bowl at San Diego. I’d rather catch passes from a young Brees than a young Quincy Carter or an old Vinny Testaverde. It’s not uncommon for draft picks to be cut or placed on the practice squad too, though that’s obviously far more common for undrafted free agents. Regardless, it’s safe to say Witten earned his keep.
Of course he earned his keep. Same with Gates by a lot with him being undrafted. Drew did make the Pro Bowl one year with the Chargers, he had 3 less TD’s and more than double the ints the next season, also had 11 TD’s ,15 Ints the season before his pro bowl season and 17-16 year before. That is two mediocre seasons and regression after Pro Bowl season. Imagine if Gates had Drew of 2006-present.
From 2003-2005, the years Brees overlapped with Gates, the Chargers as a team threw 77 touchdowns, 43 interceptions, and had a passer rating of 87.56. Those same years Witten played for QBs who threw 59 tds and 61 ints, and who posted a rating of 76.48. At least Gates got to play for Brees some. After that Rivers took over in San Diego, and he’s no slouch.
Brees had a 104.8 passer rating in 2004. Witten didn’t play for QB with a rating higher than the low 80s until Romo took over in 2006, and yet he amazingly still earned legitimate Pro Bowls all those years after his rookie season.
Gates just hasn’t been the same player since his foot problems started. Rivers taking a step or two back hasn’t helped either.
i know they are running out of days, because on the hof website it says they will announce it on november 2012, well, november is almost over, unless they announce the semifinalists today or sometime later tonight into morning, i just dont know why they have to prolong this to december it looks like, maybe theres a tie like last year, but anyway, they should announce it soon, i hope.
Tweet sent at 10.59am EST
”Next step in our selection process coming this afternoon with the announcement of our semifinalists.”
https://twitter.com/ProFootballHOF/status/274543213505822720
Six first-year eligible candidates, guard/tackle Larry Allen, kicker Morten Andersen, safety John Lynch, tackle Jonathan Ogden, defensive tackle Warren Sapp, and defensive end Michael Strahan are among the 27 semifinalists being considered for the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s Class of 2013.
The Hall of Fame’s Selection Committee chose the 27 semifinalists from the previously announced list of 127 preliminary nominees. The list of semifinalists is typically limited to 25 names but this year there are 27 resulting from a three-person tie for the final position. The Hall of Fame’s By-laws provides that the list shall consist of “twenty-five nominees plus all ties.”
In addition to the six first-year eligible nominees, one other previously eligible candidate, cornerback Albert Lewis has made it to the semifinalist list for the first time. Each of the remaining 20 nominees on the Selection Committee’s list has been a semifinalist at least once prior to this year.
http://www.profootballhof.com/enshrinement/2012/11/30/2013-Semifinalists-for-Football-Hall-of-Fame/