After two terrible weeks, I at least achieved respectability in week three. I still hit just two of four bets, but I did nail my upset of the week, Kansas City’s win over New Orleans at +330.

Tony, on the other hand, has followed up a strong week one by posting two straight 1-3 marks – though he also hit his upset last week, with Cincinnati’s win over Washington.

He violated one of his cardinal rules last week—never bet on “my” team — especially the Vikings, as usually they’ll find a way to lose the bet and the game. At least last week, they only lost the bet. He still leads me by two for the season, however, with a 5-7 overall mark. The first two weeks were rough to me. I’m straggling at 3-9.

Still, there’s no giving up now. I feel it starting to come together. Here are our Best Bets for week four.

Andy

Green Bay (-7.5) vs New Orleans – After the Monday Night debacle left Green Bay at 1-2, there are two ways this week’s game can go. The Packers can stay down in the dumps and, as the old saying goes, let the Seahawks game beat them twice. Or Green Bay can suck it up at home and put a whoopin’ on a New Orleans team that is on the brink of being down and out. My guess is Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy have the team at a fever pitch heading into the anti-Goodell Bowl  and that Green Bay wins this game comfortably.

Houston (-12) vs Tennessee – Tennessee can’t run the ball right now and Houston has the best pass defense in the league. The Texans are making a case for themselves as the best team in the AFC. They quietly won their first two games by 20 points each before knocking off Denver on the road. I think the Texans get up early and let Arian Foster and Ben Tate pound away on the defense in the second half before they emerge with another big win.

Houston vs Tennessee: Under 45 – Again, Tennessee’s run game is a mess and Houston stops the pass as well as any team in the league. I don’t expect the Titans to break double digits, thus the Texans should be able to win comfortably while keeping this game well under 45.

Upset of the week: New York Giants (+1.5, +105) at Philadelphia – I’m not really going out on a limb this week, but I just don’t see a lot of upsets on the schedule. This game is a tossup, but Michael Vick has been extremely generous with turnovers this season against lesser competition than the Giants. If he puts the ball on the ground again this week the Giants will make the Eagles pay.

Tony

Cleveland (+12) at Baltimore – Cleveland has looked a little better over the last two weeks, and I still insist (even if it’s anecdotal) that the Ravens have a history of playing to their opponents level. Twelve points is a huge spread in the NFL today.

New Orleans (+9) at Green Bay – This is a bit of a flier, but the Green Bay offense has looked fairly pathetic this year compared to last, hence why they lost the Monday Night game to the Seahawks, despite what everyone in Green Bay wants to believe. While they should score some points against the “less motivated than last year for some reason” defense of the Saints, the Saints offense should be able to keep up as well against the not-so vaunted Packer defense. The Packers might pull out the win—especially at home, where the refs may be scared to make a call against them (actually…might be a good reason to flip this bet…I wonder if the Saints will get any calls in this game…), but I think the Saints can manage to keep it within 7.

Carolina at Atlanta: over 48.5 – I’m never big on betting unders for some reason, but this week was a tough one to find an over that I like. I don’t love this one, but it seems like the best matchup of good offense against average defense that isn’t set in the 50’s for a score.

Upset of the Week: Oakland Raiders (+245) over the Denver Broncos – Unless you want to take a shot at the Saints (+285) to upset the Packers, who have already lost once at Lambeau, I don’t see as many great upset picks as I did last week—so I’ll take a shot on the Raiders, who just dispatched the suddenly average-looking Pittsburgh Steelers, to take it to their division foe Broncos. Don’t love it, but…after last week, I don’t have much to lose.

To see our straight-up picks this week, click here.