Well, what do you know? We had a decent week. My 3-1 and Tony’s 4-0 make it look like we actually have a clue what’s going on in the NFL.

We were due. The wins bring him to 18-22 while I “improve” to 16-24. Are we about to get on that midseason roll? Time will tell.

Here are our picks for week 11.

Andy

Tampa Bay (-1.5) at Carolina – The spread actually started at Carolina -1.5. That was weird. The Bucs are on fire. They’ve won four of five, scoring no fewer than 28 points in any of those games. People are still sleeping on this team – I don’t think they catch Atlanta, but they are a serious contender for a wild card spot. The roll continues Sunday against a Carolina squad that is 1-6 straight-up in its last seven. They’ve snuck in a couple covers during that stretch, but they’re not going to stop Tampa. Bonus pick: Bucs games have gone over the number six games in a row and seven of nine times this season. The number is higher this week at 48.5, but I think Tampa gets three-quarters of the way there by themselves.

New Orleans (-4.5) at Oakland – After an 0-4 start, New Orleans is one game from a .500 record. The defense is still terrible, giving up 24 or more in eight of nine this season – and I just grabbed Carson Palmer as a desperation fantasy football play, so I hope that trend continues – but I do think the Saints have adopted an “us against the world” mentality that is driving this streak. They’re 4-1 straight up in their last five and 5-1 against the spread in the last six. The Raiders are scoring points, but losing games and they’re 1-3 against the spread in the last four. That continues here.

New Orleans at Oakland: Over 54.5 – Neither team can find a defense. See the previous pick for the Saints’ numbers. Oakland has given up 97 points in its last two games, has given up 31 or more in five games this season and hasn’t kept anyone under 22 except Kansas City. The last four Raiders games have gone over the number. The Saints have been over in four of six, despite a two-game stretch of unders prior to last week’s Falcons win. I like this game going way over 54.5, with the Saints potentially getting into the 40s.

Upset of the week: Indianapolis (+350) at New England – I never would have expected for this game to even be a consideration for upset of the week at the beginning of the season, but Andrew Luck is playing well and the Colts’ defense has held opponents to 10, 20, 13 and 13 in the last four games. The Patriots likely eclipse those numbers, but this isn’t the same dominant New England team of recent years. They’ve lost three close games and, while they’ve won three in a row, one was by six and one was by three. At the end of the day, this one is a long shot. But if the Colts can keep this game close heading into the fourth quarter I could see them pulling it out in similar fashion to what Arizona did to New England in week two.

Tony

Baltimore (-3.5) at Pittsburgh – I heard on the radio that Pittsburgh was favored. Either the Power Trip Show on KFAN-FM was wrong (like that could ever happen), or this game already flipped. Either way, I’d take Baltimore and give even more points than 3.5 with Big Ben out and Byron Leftwich in.

San Francisco (-5) vs Chicago – I’ve seen some books online aren’t giving odds on this one yet, presumably waiting to see what happens with Alex Smith and/or Jay Cutler. If Cutler comes back, I’d be more hesitant to take the 49ers at -5, but I’m assuming he won’t. And even if Smith doesn’t play, Colin Kaepernick should give the 49ers another option that may play havoc with a defense that is good, but has also been lucky at an unprecedented pace. Add in the 49ers running game, and their defense, and I see a 49ers victory.

New Orleans (-4.5) at Oakland – Normally I’ll take at least one game on the Over/Under, but this week I’m going with three straight line picks. Not because the O/U are harder than normal (I would have gone over on Green Bay/Detroit), but because these three games are so appealing. Oakland’s offense hasn’t been anywhere near good enough to keep up with the Saints, even if the New Orleans defense is suspect at best.

Upset of the Week: Indianapolis (+330) at New England – Not a lot of straight up upsets I like this week, so I’ll grab one that’s paying out big if it hits—I’d rather take the Colts +10 (I think they do keep it close), but I’ll take a flier on the team led by the young star that is playing inspired football for coach Pagano. Not like my record can take a big hit if I miss it.