Logo courtesy of the Pro Football Hall of Fame
Six coaches and contributors are among the 25 finalists in the running for induction in the 2014 class of the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
Super Bowl winning coaches Tony Dungy and Jimmy Johnson join Eddie DeBartolo Jr., George Young, Paul Tagliabue and Don Coryell as semifinalists.
The list’s next most prominent role is the position of pass rusher, where five men who played linebacker, defensive line or a hybrid between the two moved on to the next round.
Among the prominent first-time candidates are wide receiver Marvin Harrison, tackle Walter Jones and linebacker Derrick Brooks. Harrison joins long-time finalists Andre Reed and Tim Brown at the receiver position where, until Cris Carter was inducted this year, Reed, Brown and Carter each received enough support where their votes seemed to cancel each other out.
Other areas of intrigue are on the offensive line, where newcomer Walter Jones and returning semifinalist Will Shields are strong contenders for enshrinement, and safety, where Steve Atwater and John Lynch move to the next step at a position where voters have not inducted many previous candidates.
The 25 semifinalists were announced on the NFL Network Wednesday night.
All 15 of Zoneblitz’ predictions for finalists – and one narrowly eliminated finalist – all remain in the running for induction. You can check out our prediction for finalists and ultimate selection at this link.
Sheer numbers would make it a surprise if at least one contributor is not ultimately inducted in August 2014. But even if it lacks a little in star power from some previous years, this is a pretty strong group from top to bottom.
Who do you think makes it to the next round? Let us know below.
Here are the semifinalists by position:
Running backs
- Jerome Bettis
- Roger Craig
- Terrell Davis
Wide receivers
- Tim Brown
- Marvin Harrison
- Andre Reed
Offensive linemen
- Joe Jacoby
- Walter Jones
- Will Shields
- Steve Wisniewski
Linebackers, Defensive linemen
- Michael Strahan
- Derrick Brooks
- Kevin Greene
- Charles Haley
- Karl Mecklenburg
Defensive backs
- Steve Atwater
- John Lynch
- Aeneas Williams
Special teams
- Morten Andersen
Coaches/contributors
- Don Coryell
- Edward DeBartolo Jr
- Tony Dungy
- Jimmy Johnson
- Paul Tagliabue
- George Young
The group of 25 semifinalists will be reduced to 15 finalists on Wednesday, January 8, 2014. Senior finalists Ray Guy and Claude Humphrey automatically advance to the final round of voting, which will take place in the weekend leading up to the Super Bowl.
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Alright here is my prediction:
First off Claude Humphrey (yes) Ray Guy (No)
1. Derrick Brooks -LB
2. Will Shields-G
3. Michael Strahan- De
4. Walter Jones- T
5. Andre Reed- WR
I struggled with Reed over Brown/Harrison
I struggled not having Haley on
I struggled with not having Tony Dungy on
Sentimental favorite is Karl Mecklenburg, I always thought of him as one of the best LB’s from the entire 80/90 LB’s and their were definitely some good ones!
I picked: Jerome Bettis, Terrell Davis, Roger Craig, Shaun Alexander, Tim Brown, Andre Reed, Marvin Harrison,Walter Jones, WIll Shields, Joe Jacoby, Steve Wisniewski, Charles Haley, Michael Strahan, Derrick Brooks, Zach Thomas,Kevin Greene, Karl Mecklenburg, John Lynch, Steve Atwater, Albert Lewis, Steve Tasker, Aeneas Williams, Morten Anderson. But didn’t do coaches/contributors because they are tricky.
Looking at the list, there really were two “wild card” slots (the rest were former semi-finalists or first-timers expected to get this far). Those were Jimmy Johnson and Steve Wisniewski. The short-career Johnson is a surprise, and I’m not sure he was even the best available coach left over — for one, George Seifert also has two SB wins, a somewhat longer career, and a much better W-L percentage. Wisniewski actually has a good case with a postseason profile of 5/8/90s (excellent for a guard) but his reputation for dirty play might be seen as an on-field minus.
Jimmy Johnson drafted and built the 90s Cowboys who played in four straight NFC Championship games and won 3 SBs, all of which place him above the qualifications of Seifert.
Agree with Paul here regards Johnson. He totally rebuilt the Cowboys into a dynasty and also deserves credit for that 3rd title as Barry Switzer was simply handed the keys to a Ferrari and told not to crash it. It was the same scenario for Seifert when inheriting the great Bill Walsh teams. I’m actually surprised it has taken this long for Johnson to be named a semi finalist.
Re Karl Mecklenburg, definitely think he has a solid HoF case. There are only two HoF MLB/ILB types from the 80s-90s as of now, Mike Singletary and Harry Carson, and arguably the best not in are Mecklenburg at 4/6/none and Sam Mills at 3/5/none. I think both belong in.
I would like to see Mecklenburg advance into the final 15, but am not so sure he will get any further – at least not this year. I see 2014 as an opportunity for HOF voters to elect a few long standing finalists (Reed, Haley, maybe Bettis or Williams) plus Strahan, Jones and/or Shields, in order to clear them from future debates and make room for others from a larger 1st year eligible group in 2015
Agreed on Mecklenburg’s HoF election chances. He may never even become a finalist as a regular candidate. Both he and/or Mills might get in via the Senior route well down the road — not holding my breath, though.
No huge surprises here. I would say that Johnson and Wisniewski would have been on my short list for the best candidates that hadn’t been semi-finalists before. I think out of this 25, the 10 guys who will be eliminated in the next cutdown will be Johnson, Wisniewski, Young, Coryell, Davis, Jacoby, Lynch, Mecklenburg, Andersen and Tagliabue.
Maybe wishful thinking, but I think this is the year a safety finally cracks the finalist list again. Atwater and Lynch have had pretty similar careers, but I think Atwater has a slightly better case so he gets my vote. I think it is pretty well a lock that at least one WR, OL and DL/LB gets in, but beyond that it is up in the air. I think Strahan is close to being a lock, with Brooks also very likely. I always thought Brooks would waltz in, but with so many media members selling him short, it has me doubting that opinion.
how remarkable is this? not only they announce the 15 finalist list on januray 8th but the baseball hall of fame class of 2014 ( if any inductees from the baseball hof due to the steroid era) will be announced on that same day? so it will be two good lists to find out on januray 8th.
Derrick Brooks was Ray Lewis without the Hype because Sapp collected most of that. I believe that Brroks was more of a 1st year eligible HOFamer than Sapp was IMO.
I have heard only positive views on Brooks for the HOF from the media and feel pretty confident that he will selected in 2014 as a 1st time candidate. My guess is that many average fans are downplaying his qualifications and chance of election as he lacks some degree of name recognition (except for Bucs fans and others who know the 1990s/early 2000s era very well. But his “numbers” are pretty impressive (9/11, SB win, Def MVP, 2000s decade team)
let me ask you a ques bslo what do you have wrong with each candidate
I tend to agree with BSLO as to the candidates eliminated from 25 to 15, truth is that ten candidates will not move any further and the list he provides looks pretty to me as they are tier below the returning 2013 finalists plus a few high quality 1st time candidates.
robert ewing – Just to clarify, I think that all 25 of these semi-finalists belong in the Hall. Unfortunately since 10 have to get cut for the finalist list, I chose those particular candidates for the following reasons:
Jimmy Johnson – First time as a semi-finalist, who had an excellent, but short career. I think he may leapfrog Coryell, but Tony Dungy will likely be the next coach inducted.
Steve Wisniewski – Solid credentials, but probably has no prayer at getting in until Will Shields gets in. Jones and Shields are clearly better candidates, so moving him on would be pointless. I think he gets a big push shortly, because beyond Shields he is the best lineman of the 90’s that hasn’t been inducted.
George Young – Very deserving, but has no momentum right now. Should have been inducted years ago when he was voted down as a final 7 candidate. Would get in very quickly if the Hall would wise up and vote for non-players separately.
Don Coryell – I think his big push has passed. Still a great candidate, but it would be hard to push him over Jimmy Johnson, and near impossible to push him over Dungy.
Terrell Davis – Compared to other members of this list, he has too many reasons not to move him on. I think that once Bettis and LT get in, he will get a 2nd wind. Sounds like voters are pushing for Craig ahead of him as well, but I could see him being favourably compared to Edgerrin James.
Joe Jacoby – I like Jacoby, but similar to Wisniewski, there is almost no way you could push for him ahead of Jones and Shields. He is definitely going to have to wait for the Senior pool.
John Lynch – The last person I cut of the 10. Very similar player to Steve Atwater in that his best contributions came in run support, and being a fearless hitter. Like Atwater, he gained some Pro Bowl nods at the end of his career mostly based on reputation. The reason I chose Atwater over him is because Atwater has 2 Super Bowls vs. Lynch’s one, and Atwater played with less talent around him while Lynch had the benefit of playing with Sapp, Brooks, and Barber among others. Atwater is also a starter on the 90’s All-Decade team.
Karl Mecklenburg – In a tough spot at the moment, as he was not as good an overall linebacker as Brooks, and not as good a pass rusher as Greene. With Junior Seau also coming up soon, I think Mecklenburg will have to wait for the senior pool to get seriously considered. He really should have been pushed earlier.
Morten Andersen – Like Ray Guy and Steve Tasker, it’s just easy to push aside special teams candidates. He has a better resume than either of them, so I think he’ll get in before becoming a senior. Unfortunately, he’ll need a weak year to break into the finalist list. This is not that year,
Paul Tagliabue – Just has no momentum right now. The type of candidate that would cause too much debate for someone who will almost certainly not get in. Probably needs a few more years or a massive mistake made by Roger Goodell to remind people how much better of a commissioner he was than the current guy.
good analysis
Thanks Paul!
re: The Baseball Hall. I used to really look forward to their elections, but I have become so incredibly frustrated with it over the past few years. It’s become a gong show, where every election acts as a soap box for how moral Joe Reporter is because he isn’t voting for anyone who MIGHT have taken steroids, and how “exclusive” their hall is compared to the football hall for example because they induct one or 2 players a season, even though they have inducted several marginal candidates over the past few years, and the Senior Committee used to throw half the league in.
If the writers were actually as competent as they want everyone to believe, they would be pushing for players that didn’t have their peaks during the steroid era (Morris, Trammell, Raines, Lee Smith), or guys that clearly didn’t cheat (Biggio, Edgar Martinez, etc.). But of course they can’t even get those guys in. What a disaster. So glad I am only a casual baseball fan, because their HOF is a complete embarassment!
Agreed that the BBHoF election situation is currently a mess. Any claims to rarefied exclusivity for the BBHoF vanished years ago when Frankie Frisch shoved in a bunch of his undeserving drinking buddy teammates via the Senior Route (Jesse Haines, George Kelly, Travis Jackson, Ross Youngs, Chick Hafey, Freddie Lindstrom, etc.). There are a lot of deserving regularly-eligible players who are being held back, which clogs the pool ridiculously. In fact, deserving players as varied as Jeff Kent, Alan Trammell, and Edgar Martinez may drop off the regular ballot because of the clogged glut, while players with obvious credentials (Mike Piazza, Jeff Bagwell) are being delayed/denied for PED suspicion based on nothing concrete, not to mention Roger Clemens (acquitted in a PED-related trial). The PFHoF does not drop people from consideration when they fall below a certain threshold of votes, a problem which has left deserving players such as Dwight Evans, Bobby Grich, Lou Whitaker, and Ted Simmons out of the running for the BBHoF for years.
I’m also not one who believes in denying PED users pre-2005 regardless, so for me someone like Mark McGwire belongs in. Nor do I believe we can be assured supposed “clean” guys like Frank Thomas, Ken Griffey Jr., Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and Jim Thome really were. Nor do I believe the HoF is likely even free of PED users at this time.
It has become pretty much impossible to take this HoF seriously over the past several years.
I actually love the baseball Hall of Fame. It is one of my favorite places on earth. What I hate is the writers who vote for the Hall of Fame. Their supposed moral compasses make me sick! I have no problem if they do not vote for a failed drug test person, i.e. Palmeiro, Manny Ramirez, Ryan Braun, etc. But to keep out someone they THINK used like Piazza or Bagwell. They are crazy if they think that their are guys in the Hall already that never used. Also you have writers who send in blank ballots, guys who didn’t vote for Bench, Brett or Gwynn because…no one deserves first ballot. That is ridiculous! Plus you just had one writer sell off his vote, to Deadspin! I wish they did what the NFL does and put all the final sections to the voters who sit in a room and hammer it out. The people that should get into the NFL HOF eventually do, and that is what matters.
bachslunch/Bill Waller – You summed up my thoughts better than I ever could have! Well done.
Thoughts on London Fletcher’s Hall of Fame stock?
no 1st time All Pro team selections is really going to hurt him, for a LB with limited stats to support a case those post season teams become very critical, I do not see him a strong modern candidate contender
He reminds me of Jesse Tuggle, Steve Nelson, Wilbur Marshall. In other words the Hall of pretty good. I would take him on my team anytime, but not a HOFamer.
The HOF should – and in my view does – have a high standard and with limited slots for election, resulting in many very good players following short. And when players selected among the best in a decade (members of the teams of the decade) have yet to get elected from the 1940s, 50s, 70s and 80s, makes in hard to present case for other less qualified players.
Johnson and Dungy both deserve induction. I imagine Dungy will be first, but I’m not one who necessarily thinks he belongs on a higher rung. Advantage Dungy on career length and winning percentage, but Johnson’s turnaround job in Dallas was more impressive. He’s got two SB wins (not counting a residual third he deserves more credit for than Switzer) to Dungy’s one. Dungy had some great assistants at Tampa Bay and then inherited Manning and some other key All Decade players at Indy. Mara had one down Colts season but that had been preceded by two playoff years. If nothing else Johnson should be inducted first because he’s been waiting longer.
What is Ty Law’s Hall of Fame status?
His 2/5 profile is a little weak and he ranks perhaps 3rd or 4th best CB of his era, he may get in some day but not for a while given the large number of players at other positions from his era with better qualifications. Lester Hayes has similar profile and still is not close to election.
John Abraham is now 9th all time in career sacks, passing Lawrence Taylor. If he stayed healthy, no doubt Hall of Famer. He has years left in him with 11 sacks this year. His 3/4/none seems weak but he is 9th in career sacks like i mentioned before and Richard Dent has a profile of 2/4/none. Abraham also has 46 forced fumbles. That is up there for most all time. I can see him playing another year or two and reach top 5 all time in sacks.
He has 47 forced fumbles. Forgot to count the one yesterday. He has been healthy since 2007. He has 75.5 sacks since then. He has 5 double digit sack seasons in the past 7 seasons. Thoughts on his HOF case?
All depends on how he finishes his career with total sacks and at 34 he may be running out of time, Dent had the added advantage of playing on one of the best defenses of all time and a SuperBowl MVP.
What about RB Steven Jackson?
Steven Jackson is a very good running back who will end up with much better numbers than some of the RB’s that are currently in the HOF, but my feeling is that he will end up in the Ricky Waters, Corey DIllon, Tikki Barber land of running backs. A think a more compeeling argument is Frank Gore. What are peoples thoughts about him?
Gore would at least need a few more high level seasons to justify serious consideration in my opinion. Only one year with over 1214 yards, no rushing titles, never more than 10 tds, and no Super Bowl wins so far. It may be a case of him not being used enough, but if he’s to earn his way into Canton it would likely have to be on career yardage volume, which is currently just shy of 10k, and he may need more of it than someone with more impressive peak credentials would. A couple of more Pro Bowls wouldn’t hurt (he’s currently got 4), though it’s worth discussing whether the Pro Bowl will be of less relevance going forward, due to Goodell turning a third of it into a click scam, and now suddenly scrapping the age old conference versus conference aspect that infused the game with what meaning it had. From an individual accolade standpoint maybe it should have been non-conference determined all along, but it wasn’t, so historical comparisons are more problematic now.
That’s never more than 10 rushing tds; he did have 13 total tds one year, but fell short of double digits every other season.
My final 15 predictions:
Steve Atwater
Jerome Bettis
Derrick Brooks
Tim Brown
Don Coryell
Edward DeBartolo Jr
Tony Dungy
Kevin Greene
Charles Haley
Marvin Harrison
Walter Jones
Andre Reed
Will Shields
Michael Strahan
Aeneas Williams
Announcement of 2014 finalists now on Thurs Jan 9th at 10am.
http://www.profootballhof.com/football-hall-of-fame-2014-semifinalists.aspx
Sorry, correction: Announcement of 2014 finalists is tonight (9p) on NFL Network
http://www.profootballhof.com/enshrinement/2014/1/3/the-final-15/
Final 15 are: Anderson, Bettis, Brooks, Brown, Debartolo, Dungy, Greene, Haley, Harrison, Jones, Lynch, Reed, Shields, Strahan, Williams
New post here on tonight’s announcement. Thanks for checking in. Any surprises?
https://www.zoneblitz.com/2014/01/09/2014-finalists-hall-fame-announced/
My picks: Marvin Harrison, Walter Jones, Derrick Brooks, Charles Haley, Michael Strahan.
Hall of Fame has a back log just as bad as MLB.
Pro Football Hall of Fame.
Brad said: “Hall of Fame has a back log just as bad as MLB.”
They do for Seniors (and have a weak system for making it happen), but at least they have a reasonably acceptable voting system in place for addressing the regular candidates — and they seem to have done fairly well for the most part. We’ll see if that holds up when crunch time arrives starting next year.
The BBHoF voting is a 14-carat disaster nowadays, especially via the BBWAA and to a fair extent the Veterans route. The latter’s refusal to elect Marvin Miller and the continuing snubs of recent deserving Senior-eligibles like Dwight Evans, Bobby Grich, and Ted Simmons is a serious black eye. As for the BBWAA, their voting track record is an utter clown car farce.
I had a look back at the modern era finalists from 5 years ago. The only ones not enshrined to this point are Andre Reed, Paul Tagliabue and Bob Kuechenberg. The latter has now dropped into the Seniors pool, Tags has lost momentum leaving Reed as the only modern era player still on the ballot.
I meant bad log jam. Sorry for the error.
Mike Piazza and many others should be in and Barry Bonds and other cheaters should be off the ballot. Different discussion on a different blog.
I see Morten Anderson as a surprise but not terribly disappointed about it. I was hoping they would take another look at Joe Jacoby.
my list
1. Derrick Brooks
2. Michael Strahan
3. Will Shields
4. Walter Jones
5. Andre Reed
Brad: agreed that this isn’t the right forum for an extended BBHoF discussion. Let’s just say we’re not at all in agreement that pre-2005 PED users should be kept out of that Hall, and I’ve got really strong feelings on it (as do many folks on either side of the issue).
Thanks for all the comments both here and on the post from last night. Brad and bachslunch, I am curious to hear more of your thoughts on the BBHoF. We’ve done some writing on this week’s announcement at our sister site, Brushbackpitch.com, which can be found here: http://www.brushbackpitch.com/2014/01/08/maddux-glavine-thomas-in-still-no-hall-call-for-biggio/
Please feel free to share your opinions there.
I’ve been thinking at some point of doing a compare and contrast between the football and baseball HOFs – what works, what doesn’t, etc. Haven’t found the time.
Thanks for posting that link Andy! I have strong opinions on the Baseball HOF. I think just about everything aside from the beautiful building itself bothers me. I will have to check it out.
BSLO: Absolutely. The following at BBP is not as wide as the one here yet, but we’re trying to get there. Love the discussion. Thank you.
Comparison between voting process for PFHOF and BHOF would be an interesting discussion, especailly given the often public complaining about both over the last several years. For me the BHOF voting debate provides one important outcome of such a comparison – how much better, fair and complete the PFHOF process is (at least in my view): fewer and more selective number of voters + the one day meeting together to debate and vote on final selections.
Paul, I’ll start.
The BBHoF doesn’t vet its voters well at all — any member of the BBWAA with enough years of membership is eligible to vote, and that includes (among others) out-of-touch bozos like Murray Chass and Corky Simpson, attack trolls like Dan Shaughnessy, Ken Gurnick, and Bruce Jenkins, and a bunch of guys who write for Golf Magazine. The lack of voters with sabermetric knowledge is breathtaking, especially given how well the sport lends itself to such analysis — and given how many knowledgeable sabermetric types will never get a ballot since they aren’t sportswriters, that’s just plain silly. There’s no minimum number of players required to gain BBHoF membership, and there seems to be a point of pride in somehow thinking this indicates choosiness rather than unfairness. There’s a 10 player maximum per ballot allowed regardless of how many deserving candidates there are. Blank ballots are accepted and counted, and have reportedly been turned in by some voters, including this year. Some writers (several mentioned above) appear to relish drawing up idiotically stupid ballots, using it as “protests” and/or an excuse to write “controversial” columns/blogposts. And no one is required to make their ballot public. It’s really, really telling that Dan Le Batard gave his ballot away to Deadspin who allowed anyone to write in their nominations (with the top 10 names to appear on the ballot) — and the result was both an excellent quality ballot AND the BBWAA suspending Le Batard from the organization for one year and giving him a lifetime ban from ever getting another BBHoF ballot. The level of farce here is exponentially off the charts.
The PFHoF has a minimum number of players who must be elected, which given the number of worthy candidates has proven to be about the right number to keep logjams from getting too ridiculous thus far. The voting bloc, while not perfect, are drawn from a small pool that seems comparatively free of the out-of-touch, the moralizing, and the ravingly moronic. Unfortunately, the vote is kept secret.
The Seniors/Veterans process unfortunately is not very good for either. The PFHoF has had a spotty record nominating good candidates, and has elected some poor candidates while denying some very worthy nominees. The BBHoF has tried several approaches, none of which seem to work very well — good candidates routinely don’t enter the discussion while those inducted range from genuinely overlooked snubs to the horribly undeserving.
As of now, the PFHoF is doing notably better, at least when it comes to inducting modern-era candidates.
The main issue I have with the PFHOF senior committee process is that so few people are involved with only 9 members involved in the early rounds of voting and then only 5 of those meeting and conducting the final vote. I would rather have 30+ people even if it resulted in mail voting only, perhaps even include historians, former players and peer HOFers. As it stands right now such an important decision is left to a very small number of voters.
My predictions are as follows:
#1 Jerome Bettis
#2 Derrick Brooks
#3 Ray Guy
#4 Marvin Harrison
#5 Claude Humphrey
#6 Walter Jones
#7 Michael Strahan
Paul: The Senior committee does include the input of actual hall of famers. For instance, Chris Hanburger was picked on the advice of Jack Ham. This year the Senior committee were assisted by Joe DeLamielleure and Ken Houston (I think).
Advice is not the same as a vote. And in fact that it only takes 3 voters out of 5 attending senior select committee to get someone selected (perhaps with those 3 influenced by the selected HOF member) only supports my case for a much larger and diverse voting body for the senior candidate process.
Corey: If Carter, Reed, Brown (and many other recent WRs not named Rice) can not get voted in as 1st time candidate I am not so sure Harrison would be – especially as one of three 1st time candidates on your list, plus the overall quality in the final 15. Except for the one SB win, Harrison has career numbers including awards very similar to Carter and look how long it took him to get voted in. I really think Harrison will be that type of 1st time candidate that many say are slam dunk, but end up surprised when not elected.
For some reason I really do believe this is Reed’s year having been on the ballot for so long and in the final 10 last two years, just needed to clear the WR logjam with Carter now in.
But then again these elections are very hard to predict 100% in any given year.
And with five more 900+ reception WRs reaching the ballot by 2018 we are very soon going to have a major WR logjam again.
I think that Super Bowl win, whether someone agrees with the logic or disagrees with it, is going to push Harrison and maybe give him a better look. I think what could hold Harrison back is not his numbers but ultimately the controversy surrounding the shooting investigation may hurt his chances. I don’t know. I could be wrong. Reed could make it though. I think eventually the wide receiver logjam is going to be cleared out, but like with the Baseball Hall of Fame, it could take many years for it to die down.
I do support Harrison to make the HOF just do not believe he has a strong case for 1st time election – especially with the potential splitting of votes with Reed and Brown, and if Jones and Brooks also make as 1st time candidates. Just too many other worthy HOFers in the final 15.
Harrison is a Hall of famer but I believe it will be two years from now or maybe even three.