So, yeah. Playoffs start today. You’ll be inundated with info on the games, so we’ll keep it brief. Here’s what we think.

Saturday, January 4

Kansas City at Indianapolis
3:35 central, NBC
Line: Kansas City by 1.5
Over/Under: 46.5

Earlier in the week I picked Kansas City. Then I had a chance to watch some of the NFL Network replay of the game these two teams played two weeks ago in Kansas City and I feel much less confident. The Colts went through a rough stretch after losing Reggie Wayne. But Andrew Luck in the last month has pulled a Peyton Manning and started finding unsung receivers with whom he can distribute the ball. Meanwhile the Chiefs finished 2-5 after a 9-0 start and blew an opportunity to capitalize on Denver’s sloppy play toward the end of the season. I’ll stick with Kansas City because Jamaal Charles should have a solid day and the defense is legitimately one of the league’s toughest. But I don’t feel as good about this as I did at the beginning of the week.

Picks: Kansas City -1.5, Under 46.5

New Orleans at Philadelphia
7:10 central, NBC
Line: Philadelphia by 3
Over/Under: 53.5

There’s a lot in Philadelphia’s favor in this game. The Eagles have won seven of eight. LeSean McCoy has 519 yards rushing and four touchdowns in the last four games, which should not only help Philly score points, but also shorten the game and keep Drew Brees off the field. Meanwhile, the Saints were held to 20 or fewer points in six of eight road games during the season, including 13, 16 and 7 against Carolina, St. Louis and Seattle in December. This team just does not look the same off the Superdome turf. Philadelphia’s defense is vulnerable and I think the Saints will play gamely, but I do not expect them to leave Philly with a win.

Picks: Philadelphia -3, Under 53.5

Sunday, January 5

San Diego at Cincinnati
12:05 central, CBS
Line: Cincinnati by 6.5
Over/Under: 45.5

Theoretically this should be the easiest game of the weekend to handicap. Cincinnati finished the season 8-0 at home and one of its three road wins was at San Diego. Meanwhile, the Chargers finished 5-1 to sneak into the playoffs as the AFC’s sixth seed. They’re playing some legitimately good football behind Philip Rivers, however, and Andy Dalton has been less than stellar in two playoff appearances so far, throwing four interceptions in two losses. It’s time for him to step up. He has the weapons. And I think he will use them in a comfortable win.

Picks: Cincinnati -6.5, Over 45.5

San Francisco at Green Bay
3:40 central, Fox
Line: San Francisco by 2.5
Over/Under: 45.5

This game being played in Lambeau Field illustrates one of the biggest wrongs of the NFL’s playoff system, as the 49ers could legitimately stake a claim on being the NFC’s second best team while the Packers snuck into the playoffs with a lackluster 8-7-1 record. It shouldn’t matter. San Francisco has summarily picked apart the Green Bay defense the last three times these two teams have played. And while they play in California, the bruising defense and strong run game are built for cold weather playoff games like this is predicted to be. The one X-factor could be the development of Eddie Lacy, who makes Green Bay less finesse than they have been in recent years. I don’t think it’s enough.

Picks: San Francisco -2.5, Over 45.5