Buy or Sell: Pierre Thomas

When New Orleans traded Darren Sproles to Philadelphia this offseason it opened up the pass catching RB role, most likely for Pierre Thomas. It’s unclear as of now how the entire RB situation will play out, as it has looked during the preseason like Mark Ingram will get a shot to be an early-down guy and New Orleans also obviously likes Khiry Robinson.

But the Saints also love throwing the ball and Thomas’ skills in that area easily trump the Ingram/Robinson duo, meaning Pierre will see the field plenty.

So what is his upside potential? That’s a largely unanswered question entering the season.

Pierre Thomas
ADP: 91
RB: 32

Buy: Andy

I hear a lot of people saying Pierre Thomas is going to give up the role he has had in New Orleans’ offense in recent years to take on the Darren Sproles-role in 2014. That’s being said largely as an argument for why Thomas warrants less fantasy momentum than in years past. I say baloney.

Thomas already took on a lot of the Sproles role last season – he, not the now-Eagles RB, led the team in receptions by a 77-71 count. Sproles had more yards, but Thomas had one more TD and 94 more carries.

I’m not thoroughly convinced this is going to be the case, but let’s say hypothetically that Thomas loses half his carries to pick up more of Sproles’ receiving role. Who then takes on the 77 catches that Thomas got last year? Khiry Robinson? He caught zero passes in his rookie season. Mark Ingram? He has 24 catches in three seasons.

Someone has to be the safety valve/third-down guy for Drew Brees. I could see a scenario where Thomas approaches 100 catches this season. At his career average of 7.9 yards per reception that’s nearly 800 yards through the air. Give him half of the 147 carries he had last season and he’ll be around 75 for roughly 300 more yards. That’s a pretty solid season for a RB3 on a fantasy team – and I’d take that in the early 10th round or sooner. Throw him in as a flex play or as a bye week replacement or as a spot starter on a team that focused on WR, TE and QB early and I think you’ve got a recipe for success.

Sell: Maggio

If you’re in a PPR league, please ignore what I’m about to say. Pierre Thomas led running backs with 77 receptions in 2013, and with Darren Sproles and Lance Moore plying their trade elsewhere, Thomas’ work in the passing game may in fact increase. In fact, maybe it’s the PPR aspect that has Thomas’ draft value skewed according to ESPN’s ADP, which has Thomas as the 32nd running back off the board.

For those thinking about Thomas in that neighborhood, I invite you to view the unofficial depth chart on the Saints’ website, that has Thomas running third behind Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson. I like that the site goes out of its way to call the depth chart unofficial, yet there’s a reason the trio is listed in that order. Ingram’s getting a long look yet again as the Saints try once and for all to prove drafting him wasn’t a big mistake. But they like Robinson as well, and frankly may decide that they can swallow their pride on Ingram based on Robinson’s work between the tackles.

Either way, Thomas isn’t going to be carrying the ball much at all as he shifts into something related to the role of the departed Sproles. I’m not saying there’s not value there, but Thomas is going a couple of rounds too early based on his ceiling. (link to depth chart)

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