Bet the Mortgage: Week 3, 2014 NFL Best Bets

Well, it wasn’t a great week of betting, but considering how wacky the on-field results were and how mediocre our straight-up picks went, I think we can be happy we survived and lived to bet another day.

Both of us went 2-2 in week two. Tony hit his upset which left him slightly up for the week. I missed mine so I was down. Both of us are incrementally up for the season so far. Here’s the standings board.

Here are our bets:

Andy

$300 – Tampa Bay at Atlanta: Under 46 (-110) – Some have expressed excitement about this match-up. I think it’s crummy. Tampa has been as bad and disappointing as ever. Atlanta couldn’t do squat against Cincinnati last week. And Thursday night games, in general over the last couple years, have been duds. So if they are going to insist on the blatant money grab of playing Thursday games, I think they should at least have the decency to schedule non-conference games, so the games that matter can be played on Sunday and Monday. Political statement aside, I don’t think there will be enough offense to get to 46.

$500 – Indianapolis (-7, even) at Jacksonville – Sooner or later Pep Hamilton is going to have to unleash Andrew Luck in order for this Colts team to fulfill its potential. That said, they should be able to produce another crappy game plan and still win by more than a TD against a Jacksonville team that has looked bad since jumping out to a 17-0 lead on the Eagles in week one.

$750 – Cincinnati (-7, +105) vs Tennessee – What am I missing here? The Bengals are better than the Titans. Tennessee hosted Dallas and made a putrid Cowboys’ defense look like the 1985 Bears. Why is the spread only ranging between six and seven? And why can I get +105 for taking the seven? Vegas probably knows something I don’t on this one, but until they prove it, I’m betting Cincinnati with confidence.

$500 – San Diego (+120 moneyline) at Buffalo – The Bills are 2-0 and looking much better than expected. And I suppose you could say the Chargers are due for a letdown after beating down Seattle last week. But this is a big game for San Diego. They have a chance to put themselves squarely in the early postseason mix here despite a first week loss to Arizona. With Denver visiting Seattle it’s highly probably the Chargers could be in a first-place tie at the end of the weekend. I think they find a way to stay focused and prove they are the better team against an improving Buffalo team.

Tony

Well, hitting an upset certainly helps in an overall terrible week of picking games, bets, fantasy and anything else related to football. Unfortunately, continuing to go .500 will make little progress in making it to $20k.

$1,000 – Cincinnati Bengals (-7, +105) over Tennessee Titans – Most sites have this one at 6.5 and -115, so giving an extra half point and upping the payout to +105? All. Day. Long. The Titans just lost big to the Cowboys (thanks for that), and until they figure out how to use Bishop Sankey effectively (and help a few of my fantasy teams), clearly they’re going to remain cold.

$1,000 – Green Bay Packers (+1, +105) over Detroit Lions – OK, maybe this site I’m looking at is too liberal…but giving the superior team points just because they’re on the road AND a +105 payout? I realize most sites have the line at 2.5, but the Pack should walk with this one. The only reason I don’t take them straight up is that I’d only get +113 there, so I’ll leave a slight margin of error, just in case the game ends in a tie.

$500 – Chicago Bears at New York Jets: Over 45.5 (-110) – The Bears offense has looked about as expected. So has the defense. They should manage to keep this one once again in the mid 20’s and close, good enough here.

$300 – Washington (+240 Moneyline) over Philadelphia Eagles – Count me in the group that thinks Kirk Cousins improves the team. A solid performance and a victory this week might just lead to the team doctors finding concerns about RGIII’s ankle for the foreseeable future.

For straight up week three picks, click here.