Tampa Bay started the 2014 season seen as a sleeper playoff team by some, including Tony on this site. But things in-depthunraveled quickly – and more brutally in Lovie Smith’s first season as head coach than even the most pessimistic could have expected.

So what went wrong? And what does it take to get the ship heading in the right direction again? Nick Houllis, a Bucs historian and editor of the fan blog BucStop.com, joined us to share some thoughts. Here’s what he had to say.

Zoneblitz: This is a team some saw as a sleeper playoff contender in 2014 – while those expectations may have been too high, what happened that led to a 2-14 season?

Houllis: You can wrap up everything in a nutshell with two words. JEFF TEDFORD.

Imagine for a moment what you think would have happened two years ago had Chip Kelly taken over the Eagles, and then after week three of preseason had a heart attack and could no longer take part in team activities. Do you think the Eagles offense would be prolific? Average? Even capable? That’s exactly what happened last year, for the most part. There were other issues: the Bucs missed on several free agents, none of whom were criticized when they were signed. So it could have been anyone else that took LT Anthony Collins or RDE Michael Johnson, both of which were major busts. But it wouldn’t have mattered who the players were – losing your offensive coordinator during a year you are making a change to a new offensive system is a disaster.

Zoneblitz: After one year what are your thoughts on Jason Licht as GM and Lovie Smith as the head coach?

Houllis: I think the fact that you had no finger pointing on a horrible 2-14 seasons tells you about the type of team Lovie is coaching. You can’t grade a coaching/GM tandem on their picks for several years. They hit on Mike Evans last year, and TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins could be a real player. RB Charles Sims has great hands out of the backfield.

Clearly Josh McCown was overrated coming of his best year ever, but the loss of the OC hurt him too, as did not having a good O-line. The worst move of the year for these two personnel wise was tearing up the O-line, which was underperforming, and replacing it with straight garbage.

Even Logan Mankins regressed, which leads me to believe the OL coach needs to be looked at harder.

Zoneblitz: The QB situation appeared to be a mess in 2014. McCown is an aging vet and Smith did not appear to have confidence in Mike Glennon. What did you think of Smith’s handling of the position and how will the position be addressed?

Houllis: For those that look back at Lovie Smith’s history and expect the same old same old, they are mistaken. This “defensive” coach spent all of his draft picks on offense last year, first time in franchise history that happened. The Bucs know the QB position is one that must be addressed. They have a shot to take one of the top two QBs in the draft. Drew Brees is almost done, Matt Ryan will have a new coach, and Cam Newton is human. The Bucs could be the team with the best QB in the NFC South soon.

Zoneblitz: The team gave up 410 points and ranked 31st in yards allowed. Were defensive struggles a product of switching to the new Tampa 2 system or are there deeper issues?

Houllis: Switching to the Tampa 2 had some doing in it. Back in 1996 when Tony Dungy was teaching the defense to his team, there was almost half a season before they finally bought into the system. The T2 is a system that requires 100% participation. One man not SOLD on the system will undermine everything.

There is also a major talent gap between the Bucs and the rest of the NFL, a result of having three head coaches in seven years. But some of the lesser known players started to really help turn things around: players like Bradley McDougald, who is looking like the starter at safety next year, and Jacquies Smith LDE. The Bucs defense made a big turnaround after the bye and midway point of the season. After giving up 165 points in four games, an average of 41 points per game, the rest of the way the Bucs gave up 206 the rest of the way – 10 games averaging 20.6 points – and allowed only two 300-yard passers (two did not reach the 200 yard mark) in Mathew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers. The Bucs defense improved dramatically, but not enough to change the positioning from the damage caused by earlier games. The Bucs defense did not give up a 100-yard rushing game at any point during this period either. The defense is ready to go into next season on an upswing.

Zoneblitz: Mike Evans was certainly a bright spot, especially the second half of the season. What’s his upside and how much more talent does the team need to put around him?

Houllis: With an all-offense draft last year, the Bucs made sure to add talent all over the offense except the one place it needs it most – the offensive line! With Vincent Jackson at the other WR position, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins coming back fully healthy, the Bucs have two big targets with great hands, and a large tight end with speed too. The Bucs have a plethora of running backs, with Doug Martin back from injuries that have pestered him, Bobby Rainey who has proved himself on many occasions, and even Mike James, with rookie Charles Sims having great hands out of the backfield.

The Bucs need to put a QB in there to find these receivers, and a line to block for the QB so he has time to find them.

Zoneblitz: With that in mind, will Vincent Jackson return in 2015?

Houllis: According to Bucs GM Jason Licht, Vjax will be back with the Bucs in 2015. The only reason you’re hearing things is because Jackson has the biggest cap hit numbers of any WR at $12.2 million. He will probably have to have his contract reworked. It’s worth it, as he has plenty left in the tank at age 32. Plus he is a valuable leader, having been voted captain.

Zoneblitz: Who do you see having a breakout season in 2015?

Houllis: Impossible to say at this point, with draft and free agency still on the horizon. This year, players like LB Danny Lansanah and Mike Evans had great years, and no one would have expected that last April. Best thing, someone will, and it will be great to talk about!

Zoneblitz: In a division that was won with a sub-.500 record, how far are the Bucs from competing for a playoff spot?

Houllis: If you remember, the NFC West was won in such fashion in 2010, and it then morphed into the most competitive division in football. In 2014, just one team in the West finished without a winning record – and that team was just 1.5 games out of what would be first place in the NFC South. I see the same path for the NFC South, and don’t feel it will be won in 2015 with a sub-.500 record.

As for competing for a playoff spot, take the 14 losses the Bucs suffered this past season and break them down:

  • Two losses by blowout
  • Two losses by 17 points
  • One loss by 10 points
  • One loss by eight points where a TD and a two-point conversion ties
  • Four losses by five or six points where a TD wins – one was in overtime
  • One loss by three points – field goal ties
  • Three losses by one to two points – field goal wins

That’s eight losses within one TD and half of those required a FG only to win or tie. Assuming bounce of the ball is rounded off, the Bucs could have easily gone 6-10 this year, and with some more luck, gone 8-8 and won the NFC South. Of course that did not happen. And the Bucs, to be fair, were not just a couple players away.

Zoneblitz: What would you like to see the team do in free agency and the draft?

Houllis: You don’t have that many chances to control a draft. The last time the Bucs had the No.1 overall pick was 1987, coming off two consecutive 2-14 seasons, and they drafted QB Vinny Testaverde. You need a QB in today’s NFL, so the Bucs need to do their homework and take the best one available. Then build the Offensive line and answer needs at linebacker if need be.

More importantly, don’t be shell shocked that your Free Agent class didn’t pan out. Go back out there and try again. It happens. But the Bucs didn’t really kill themselves with bad contracts, so that’s a good thing. The Bucs WILL have cap room to play with.

Zoneblitz: Is there anything else you’d like to add?

Houllis: Let’s remember that Lovie, as a defensive-minded coach, went out and got a good offensive mind last year in Jeff Tedford, got the best free agent QB on the market and drafted all offensive players. There are too many people that say the game has passed Lovie by, not paying attention that he guided a team to two NFC Championship games, losing the one with Jay Cutler and winning the other with Rex Grossman.

The loss was only a couple years ago, in the modern era, when the best offenses of all-time were shut down by the NFC Super Bowl team. Defense is STILL winning championships. It’s insane to think that Lovie Smith has not learned anything from his mistakes in his past. The Tampa Two is NOT a dead defense. It’s been used many times by current teams. The Jeff Tedford situation is the main reason for the Bucs collapse in 2014. Also contributing is the fact the team is depleted of talent because it went through three head coaching changes in the last several years. Raheem Morris came in 2009 and kicked Jon Gruden’s veterans to the curb. Then Greg Schiano did the same to Raheem’s Bucs                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       players and now Lovie has done the same to Schiano’s men. Sadly, there are Bucs followers who want to fire Lovie already not realizing the problem will be compounded!

The hiring of former Falcons OC Dirk Koetter shows that Lovie and the Bucs are not looking to just hold teams to 16 points and only score 17. Koetter has a proven track record and the Bucs not only took that into consideration when hiring him, but kept another division opponent from picking him up! The Bucs are on the right path with Lovie Smith, fans will have to be patient while cleaning up the mess of the last few regimes.

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