We’re right at the quarter point of the season, so we figured it’d be an appropriate time to look back and see how we thought things would go when the season started a month ago.

Turns out a lot has changed. Cincinnati, Atlanta and Carolina are among 4-0 surprises. Baltimore, Detroit and several others have disappointed. It all goes to show that it’s never dull in the NFL.

Here are our rankings:

Rank Previous Rank Team Record Notes
1 2 New England Patriots 3-0 Deflategate be damned! Angry Tom has the champs looking as tough as ever.
2 4 Green Bay Packers 4-0 The Packers are playing as well as anyone in the league right now, but I still think the loss of Jordy Nelson will hurt this team in the long hall.
3 12 Cincinnati Bengals 4-0 The Bengals are playing phenomenally well on both sides of ball. Even Andy Dalton looks good!
4 9 Arizona Cardinals 3-1 Carlson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald look rejuvenated and this defense is still one of the league’s best.
5 5 Denver Broncos 4-0 Somehow they’re 4-0 despite a rocky start to the year. Forget about Peyton Manning, it’s the defense that makes this club a title contender.
6 19 Atlanta Falcons 4-0 I picked the Falcons to win the NFC South, but even I didn’t see this coming. The offense has been elite, thanks in part to unlikely early-season superstar Devonte Freeman.
7 21 Carolina Panthers 4-0 Cam Newton is earning his Superman cape this year. He has the Panthers at 4-0 despite a lackluster supporting cast.
8 1 Seattle Seahawks 2-2 This is not the same Seahawks team we’re used to seeing, but I still expect them to be one of the toughest teams to beat over the remainder of the season.
9 22 New York Jets 3-1 This Jets D is good. Really, really good. And now they get Sheldon Richardson back.
10 3 Indianapolis Colts 2-2 It hasn’t been pretty so far, and Andrew Luck’s health leaves the future a little murky. But they’ve still got the top-tier talent to make a late-season run.
11 17 Buffalo Bills 2-2 The Bills are suddenly one of the NFL’s most exciting teams. Tyrod Taylor, not LeSean McCoy, has breathed some life into this offense, and Rex’s defense is rock solid.
12 25 New York Giants 2-2 The Giants offense is racking up points, but the key here is that the defense hasn’t been nearly as atroscious as I expected.
13 7 Pittsburgh Steelers 2-2 Big Ben’s injury dealt a major blow to the Steelers’ early-season prospects. They’ll continue to struggle without him, even with Le’Veon Bell back in the lineup.
14 10 Dallas Cowboys 2-2 The Cowboys defense has suffered badly following the loss of DeMarco Murray and injuries to Tony Romo and Dez Bryant. But the defense is actually somewhat intriguing, especially with Greg Hardy returning to the lineup this week.
15 12 Minnesota Vikings 2-2 The season could not have gotten off to a worse start for the Vikings, who suffered an embarrassing loss to the 49ers in Week 1. But they’ve played stout defense since then, and Teddy Bridgewater seems to be getting back on track.
16 23 St. Louis Rams 2-2 Aaron Donald and the defense are as good as advertised. Meanwhile, Todd Gurley flashed what he’s capable in Week 3, and even Tavon Austin is showing signs of life.
17 15 San Diego Chargers 2-2 The Chargers are just 2-2, but the outlook remains relatively strong because Philip Rivers is playing great. The biggest challenge will be to keep him upright behind an injury-riddled offensive line.
18 11 Kansas City Chiefs 1-3 The Chiefs defense has looked awful thus far, but they’ve also played some tough competition in the Packers, Broncos and Bengals (all ranked in the five on this list).
19 30 Oakland Raiders 2-2 I almost feel bad ranking the Raiders this low. They’ve actually played pretty well en route to a 2-2 start.
20 31 Tennessee Titans 1-2 The Titans jumped out strong with a big Week 1 win. They lost back-to-back games before the bye, but Marcus Mariota is giving this team some real hope for the future.
21 32 Washington Redskins 2-2 Another team that has been much better than expected. The Redskins are 2-2, thanks to a defense that has held opponents to 20 points or less in three of the first four games.
22 6 Baltimore Ravens 1-3 One of the biggest disappointments so far this year, the Ravens have struggled to get much going on offense. And the defense is reeling after losing Terrell Suggs to a season-ending Achilles tear in Week 1.
23 28 Cleveland Browns 1-3 Is it possible that the Browns aren’t as bad as we thought? Probably not, but at least there have been a few glimpses of hope along the way, including the emergence of Travis Benjamin and Duke Johnson.
24 20 New Orleans Saints 1-3 The Saints are a shell of their former selves at this point. They need Drew Brees to stay healthy because this club is going to have to rack up a lot of points to offset this horrible defense.
25 8 Philadelphia Eagles 1-3 Chip Kelly built this team his way, and so far it’s been downright ugly. Big-money free agent DeMarco Murray has run for just 47 yards through the first four games, and Sam Bradford hasn’t gotten much going in the passing game either.
26 18 Houston Texans 1-3 Arian Foster’s return gives this team some hope, but the quarterback situation is an absolute disaster. It’s going to be hard to win without an upgrade there.
27 13 Miami Dolphins 1-3 Head coach Joe Philbin already gone after an abysmal 1-3 start. The offense has regressed and the defense has struggled, too, despite the addition of superstar Ndamukong Suh.
28 26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-3 It’s going to be a rollercoaster of a season for the Bucs, but perhaps Jameis Winston and Mike Evans can at least provide a glimpse of better days to come.
29 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 1-3 T.J. Yeldon has shown signs of being a solid feature back, but this offense remains downright pathetic. 62 points in four games? Yikes.
30 27 San Francisco 49ers 1-3 The 49ers jumped out to a strong start with a big Week 1 win against the Vikings, but it’s been all downhill since. Colin Kaepernick has shown few signs of progress in this his fifth NFL season.
31 29 Chicago Bears 1-3 The Bears have been awful… Just not quite as awful as the division rival Lions. Chicago remains the odds-on favorite to land the No. 1 pick in the 2016 NFL Draft.
32 16 Detroit Lions 0-4 The Lions have scored just 66 points as they’ve failed to get the running game going and they’ve turned Matthew Stafford into a game manager. Do they even remember that Megatron’s on the field?