Thomas Rawlsbuying-selling
ADP: 27.2
RB: 13

Thomas Rawls started the 2015 season as an undrafted free agent RB just hoping to garner a roster spot. After Marshawn Lynch got hurt and Christine Michael was jettisoned for cluelessness, Rawls found himself in possession of one of the prime bell cow RB positions in the league.

He ran with it, too, putting up huge numbers in his seven starts. He thrived until an ankle injury ended his season early.

Does he come back in 2016 to solidify his role, now that Lynch is retired? Or does the presence of several solid cohorts and the emergence in the second half of 2015 of a stronger passing game signal that Rawls’ status as an elite back was a short one?

John Vomhof Jr.: Buy

Thomas Rawls went from undrafted free agent to one-week injury replacement to fantasy superstar in a matter of weeks last season. But, unfortunately, the fairy tale came to a premature end with a devastating ankle injury in Week 14.

So, where does that leave Rawls for 2016? Well, as of now, he’s a fantasy steal – his ADP puts him in the latter half of the third round in 10 team leagues, but many experts are still ranking him as a fifth or sixth round pick.

In his rookie campaign, Rawls rushed for 830 yards and four touchdowns, despite starting only seven games. He was an absolute beast, averaging 5.6 yards per carry and looking every bit capable of stepping into Marshawn Lynch’s shoes.

Is there risk in drafting Rawls? Sure there is, but that’s already baked into his bargain-basement price tag. And the upside is massive, with the young back poised for a workhorse role. (No, I’m not that worried about Seattle’s rookie running backs. C.J. Prosise is the best of the bunch, and I see him as more of a third-down, Darren Sproles type—at least at this point in his career.)

If not for the late-season injury, we might be debating whether Rawls should be drafted in the second round, if not the late first along with Cardinals sophomore David Johnson. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rawls’ draft stock climb into the third round by late August if his recovery remains on track for a Week 1 return.

So, if you’re drafting early, take advantage of the steep discount to grab Rawls as a dirt-cheap RB2 or an ideal Zero RB option.

Andy: Sell

I love stories like the one Rawls started to write in 2015. He came from nowhere and nearly became a full-fledged star, all in the course of about four months. But there are many reasons to worry that this was more a flash-in-the-pan than a sign of things to come.

First, you’ve got the fact that Rawls has yet to be activated from the Physically Unable to Perform list. I know that’s a technicality in the preseason and that he may be days rather than weeks away from returning, but he’s ceded a lot of practice time already.

Second, Rawls was the bell cow for the few weeks he was the starter – but that’s largely because the team had been running with Marshawn Lynch and had dropped his previous backup,  Christine Michael. There aren’t many bell cow backfield positions left. Lynch was one, but that’s because he was one of the league’s elite backs for several years.

When Rawls went down, the re-signed Christine Michael returned to the scene and he played well too. Add to the mix two draft picks – C.J. Prosise from Notre Dame and Alex Collins from Arkansas  – and you’ve got the makings of something that feels to me like it could be a platoon-in-the-making.

Finally, during the season’s second half, Russell Wilson and the Seahawks’ passing game took a huge step forward. I think that continues – whereas this has been one of the more run-heavy teams in recent years, Doug Baldwin, Jimmy Graham and, especially, Tyler Lockett are primed to get more looks.

I like Rawls. I think he will be a solid contributor. But I don’t think he’ll consistently put up the same kind of numbers he did during his impressive but short-lived run in 2015.

Previous Buy or Sell: Lamar Miller
Next Buy or Sell: Donte Moncrief