Andy: Hmm, where to start. Oakland hasn’t had a winning season since Jon Gruden was there. The ink on the contract for San Diego’s bust-in-waiting first rounder Joey Bosa is still wet, so he’s not going to contribute much right away for a Chargers team that otherwise, in my eyes, sported a pretty ordinary to bad offseason. Denver won big last year with defense – theoretically replacing Peyton Manning’s output from 2015 shouldn’t be hard, but … Trevor Siemian is how you plan to start your season? Really? Kansas City probably has the fewest question marks. But can Alex Smith take the team one step further? Or is he already outplaying his ceiling?

I’m not sure where to go in this mess of a division.

Tony: Much like the AFC South, the West may feature competitive football that isn’t all that interesting, unless you’ve got Amari Cooper in a couple of your fantasy leagues (yay me!).  The Chiefs do appear to have the inside track, but with Justin Houston possibly starting the season on PUP, Jamaal Charles coming off another knee injury, Eric Berry staying away from camp, and Andy Reid, they might have too many issues to overcome.

Which probably opens the door for the Raiders, who actually last had a winning record the year after Gruden left … when they faced Gruden in the Super Bowl. Although the Raiders may face another distraction as the season drags on, with their potential move to Las Vegas—no telling on how the fans may react. Unlike in San Diego, where an announcement that the team is moving to Los Angeles may draw the biggest cheers at their games this season … until the likely follow up announcement that Los Angeles would prefer to wait another 20 years, rather than watch the brand of football that the Chargers would bring to town.

Andy: I disagree on the AFC South. That division at least has three teams with QBs that should sling the ball around pretty well and a fourth team in Tennessee with a young QB and possibly three RBs who may be able to execute the “exotic smashmouth” football that Whisenhunt promised.

The two best teams in the AFC West from 2015 will, in 2016, either continue to run the chronically boring Alex Smith or the aforementioned Lynch/Siemian duo at QB. The Chargers will roll with the aging-and-permanently-decrepit Philip Rivers, who probably is the best QB in the division, but with his lack of mobility and the terrible O-Line, also has the highest probability of being broken in two or more pieces early in the season. The only QB in this division I would spend money to watch is Derek Carr – which is a pretty big statement for the soon-to-be Las Vegas Raiders. There hasn’t been much to cheer for in Oakland since Chucky left town.

Actually, I really like what the Raiders are putting together. Cooper and Michael Crabtree are good targets for Carr. Latavius Murray is a decent RB. LB Khalil Mack is a stud. First-round pick Karl Joseph has a chance to be a great safety. It’s been a long time since Oakland played must-watch football, but they may be getting close.

Tony: So we’re disagreeing on the AFC South in the AFC West write up? I actually agree with everything you just said, except I appear to think the Raiders are even closer than being the most relevant team in the division than you. With a couple of not unrealistic breaks (mostly injuries to the Chiefs and Broncos), I think they’ve got a shot to win the division this year—I just don’t think it will be with a 12-4 record, and I don’t think they have the experience to take the next step to playoff success yet.

Which is a little odd, because I actually think that if the Broncos or Chiefs somehow cobble things together, they actually could win a playoff game or two—even with some combination of Smith/Siemian starting for them. And with the Brady suspension, the AFC may be the most wide open we’ve seen in years in 2016.

The most mind boggling thing to me, though, is still that somehow the Raiders have become the model franchise in California—just in time for them to potentially pack up and leave the state.

Andy: Yeah, just because I don’t know what to make of the division doesn’t mean it won’t produce interesting football. There are some great story lines here. It just makes things a little messy. I can’t buy into Siemian and I think the Raiders are a year away, so, I guess that leaves the Chiefs.

Andy’s picks:

Kansas City
Denver
Oakland
San Diego

Tony’s picks:

Kansas City
Oakland
Denver
San Diego