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Two big trades have improved the status of several fantasy football players in the AFC East heading into the NFL draft next weekend.
Last week the New York Jets traded a fifth round pick to Pittsburgh for Santonio Holmes. Holmes will miss the first four games via suspension and he’s maddeningly inconsistent at times. But he A) provides Mark Sanchez another weapon at wide receiver, B) takes coverage away from Braylon Edwards and Dustin Keller and C) provides yet another option on offense to take pressure off of the run game.
The Jets are my mid off-season pick to win the AFC Championship and they are building an offense to match the suffocating defense that developed last season.
From a fantasy standpoint Sanchez is still a wildcard at quarterback and that uncertainty could still drop Edwards, Holmes, Jerricho Cotchery and Keller in drafts. But I already liked Shonn Greene a lot and the Holmes addition only makes him more appealing as a top-notch running back option.
The price the Miami Dolphins paid for Brandon Marshall was considerably higher – second round picks in 2010 and 2011. But as long as the Dolphins can keep Marshall from getting in trouble on South Beach, his acquisition might be even bigger. The Dolphins were trotting guys like Davone Bess, Greg Camarillo and Brian Hartline out as number one wideouts. Those guys might have roles on good teams but clearly none are number one options.
Marshall is a top five or six wideout in the NFL, however, if not higher. And his addition not only takes the focus away from those guys but provides up-and-coming quarterback Chad Henne with a true ace.
I really, really liked what I saw from Henne in his first chance to play. I think with a number one wideout he becomes a borderline top 10 quarterback – and I definitely would take a chance on Henne before I would pick up Kyle Orton, Marshall’s field general in Denver last season.
Yet with Orton, Marshall still managed 101 catches and 10 touchdowns. I think he’ll approach that many catches, exceed 10 touchdowns and probably surpass his 1,120 yards as well.
Add the new found firepower of the Jets and Dolphins to the long-standing power that is New England and the AFC has made itself one of the first places to look for fantasy football firepower.
With Kurt Warner retiring Matt Leinart retakes the helm in Arizona, at least for now. If the Cardinals settle for roster status quo, that puts the fantasy football fates of superstars like Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin in the hands of a quarterback who has thrown for fewer than 4,000 yards and just 14 touchdowns since being drafted in 2006.
Zoneblitz.com expects the fantasy stats of nearly all Cardinals to take a hit, at least through the early portions of the 2010 season. Anthony Maggio, who is a freelance sports writer, a contributor to FantasyFootballChamps.com and the owner of the Punting Baxter blog, agrees that Warner’s retirement isn’t good news on the fantasy football scene.
In a couple weeks we’ll hit the midpoint of fantasy football seasons. Those of you whose teams are struggling, it’s too early to give up hope. And for those of you that have gotten out of the gates strong – don’t start resting just yet.
Paul Charchian, who is founder of LeagueSafe.com, president of the Fantasy Sports Trade Association and a renowned fantasy football expert, has returned to Zoneblitz.com to offer some advice on who to keep, who to shop, and how to turn that fast start into a fantasy championship.
Thanks again for the time, Charch.
Zoneblitz: Five weeks into the season who are the biggest fantasy football surprises for the good so far?
Charchian: Each year only one or two receivers rise from relative obscurity to make an impact. This year it’s Steve Smith’s turn. I’m not ready to call him a great receiver. But he’s in a great position for sustained fantasy impact. He’s earned the trust of Eli Manning and defenses are forced to play to stop the Giants’ running attack. His production is not a fluke.
Early this week Michael Crabtree finally ended his moronic holdout in San Francisco. And the New York Jets, in an effort to provide their rookie quarterback with another weapon, acquired potential stud Braylon Edwards for spare parts and draft picks.
While these were higher-profile roster moves than you usually read about at this stage of the season, neither move will have a dramatic impact on fantasy football, at least in the short term.
Lets start with the Jets. In “real” football, Edwards will give Mark Sanchez another target. And Edwards will have a better team around him. A change of scenery could help him, so he’s got the potential to improve his situation as a fantasy player more than anyone else involved in the deal. But that’s only if he can A) keep himself from getting suspended for off the field actions and B) start catching the ball. If he continues leading the league in drops the fans in New York will tear this guy apart.
And Sanchez, while impressive as a rookie starter thus far, was and still is certainly only a backup and bye week plug-in at this point, even with Edwards.
For Jerricho Cotchery, the Edwards acquisition will likely take some coverage off of him. At the same time, as the better player, Edwards also will likely take some targets away from Cotchery. At best, this is a lateral situation for him.
Thomas Jones and Leon Washington may benefit from having more coverage dedicated to the pass game. But in splitting carries, neither are putting up particularly fantasy-worthy numbers as it is and I would expect that, for the most part, that will continue.
Now the Browns. I’ve heard a few people talk about Mohamed Massaquoi as a free agent target.
Sure, he’s now the number one wide receiver for the Browns. But he’s still a rookie playing for a bad team with a horrible offense and with inept quarterbacks. If it were me I’d leave Massaquoi for others. See if they drop someone worthwhile onto the free agent heap instead.
Really, there weren’t any Browns I would have targeted before and there still aren’t. That’s a bad, bad team, both in real football and fantasy football.
Michael Crabtree could be a bit of a different story – if you have a roster spot and a month to wait.
Crabtree isn’t going to make an immediate impact. The team is 3-1 and they don’t need him to step up immediately.
But Crabtree’s skillset is one of the few things the team is truly missing. And say it takes him four weeks to get enough of the offense down to be a truly impactful player. Look at the schedule San Francisco plays late in the season.
Weeks nine through 16 include games against Tennessee (31st against the pass), Green Bay (tied for 30th), Jacksonville (tied for 27th), Seattle, Arizona (tied for 27th), Philadelphia and Detroit (32nd). That’s six pretty good matchups. And a guy like Crabtree doesn’t need a lot of touches to add a lot of potential firepower to your lineup.
So, in the short term, if you have strong receivers I’d probably let someone else grab Crabtree and see if they toss something better on to the waiver wire.
But if you are running a team that looks to have playoff aspirations, you are looking for a wide receiver with some high upside and you have a roster spot available, he might be worth rolling the dice on.
Anthony Maggio spent two years as an associate editor at Fanball, one of the earlier fantasy sports sites on the Internet. He has moved on from there but he’s still a freelance writer, covering both real and fantasy sports, the latter for FFChamps.com. You can read the rest of his writing at the blog puntingbaxter.wordpress.com, where he also provides additional fantasy sports analysis – including some kick ass team defense rankings.
There’s a strong possibility – talks are underway – that Maggio may team up with the proprietors of Zoneblitz to share some fantasy football thoughts via various technological means during the upcoming season. For now he has agreed to answer some questions. His answers are below.
Zoneblitz: With Tomlinson’s tough season last year, how do you rank the top of the draft? Is it Adrian Peterson without question or are there others you could consider with the top pick?
Maggio: I think that Peterson is the only back that belongs in the discussion for the top pick regardless of scoring system. That said, a strong PPR league could have guys like Matt Forte and Maurice Jones-Drew in the conversation. A touchdown-heavy league gets Michael Turner in the mix. Keeper and dynasty league, depending again on scoring system, could thrust Larry Fitzgerald in the conversation as well. As for Tomlinson, the drop in carries, touchdowns and yards per game each of the last two seasons is worrisome and he’s definitely not in the conversation for a top three pick, but I think he’s got one more season as a No. 1 fantasy back left in him.
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