Polls
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I finally picked one game back up on Andy in Week 5, although 8-5 is hardly awe inspiring. Season standings are now 50-27 for Andy vs. 47-30. This week, just a couple of differences between us, with Andy taking a couple of upset chances like San Francisco & Carolina on the road.
If we should have been in Vegas for Week 2 of the NFL season, Week 3 is the clear cut example of why our wives don’t like it when we talk about flying out multiple times during the season (for finding other ways to bet large sums of money on football).
I matched my perfect Week 2 with a perfect 0-4 record in Week 3, while Andy followed up his 3-1 week with a 1-3 week. If I followed my patterns in Vegas, this is when I would get sick of betting football, and start betting stupid parlays that had no reason to cover (and yet often do), and making weird prop bets—like betting on the number of times that the infamous Tuck Rule play is referenced during the Patriots/Raiders game on Sunday (currently the over/under is at 17.5 including the CBS pregame show, and I’m big on the over).
This week’s best bets (to avoid?):
Andy:
Carolina (+6.5) at Chicago – Carolina has shown no fear of going on the road. Cam Newton has been a revelation for the Panthers. Meanwhile the Bears continue to show no interest in running the ball. If the Panthers can turn the Bears one dimensional on offense I could even see betting the moneyline, which is running at +240 for Carolina early in the week.
Philadelphia (-7) vs San Francisco – San Francisco has won two games, but they’ve been against two of the crappier teams in the league. The “Dream Team” has been exposed a bit early in the season, but the Eagles are at home. If the 49ers can keep the game close they’ll be able to use Frank Gore to attack the Eagles’ weak run defense. But if Philadelphia can get an early lead they’ll force the game into Alex Smith’s hands and that won’t work.
Atlanta (-4.5) at Seattle – I’ve lost many times betting on good teams going across the country to play bad teams. For some reason lengthy travel often seems to play a role in the results of games. However, the Seahawks are terrible, ranking highly in the Luck-o-Meter race right now despite winning last weekend against Arizona. Atlanta is a much better team than Seattle. More importantly they’re desperate, having started 1-2 with a division loss to Tampa. They right the ship this week against the Seahawks.
Upset of the week: Pittsburgh (+4, +180 moneyline) at Houston – The Texans are favored over the Steelers? Really? Actually Houston probably deserves to be a four point favorite. But the Steelers are still a blue collar, hard core football team that can win on any given Sunday. Houston’s defense is improving and the offense is stellar. A win in this game would show they are a real contender in the AFC. A loss wouldn’t be devastating but it would show that the changing of the guard is not going to happen without a fight.
Tony:
New Orleans (-7) at Jacksonville – Barring another monsoon game for the Jaguars, I don’t think there’s any way that Jacksonville can keep up with the Saints. They can maybe keep it close if they can control the ground game with Maurice Jones-Drew, but even if it’s close, I think the Saints can tack one on late to beat the spread.
San Francisco (+7) at Philadelphia – I almost picked the 49ers to win, with Vick out—the whole west coast team traveling east was the only thing holding me back. Assuming Vick doesn’t play, I don’t think Mike Kafka (or Vince Young) could provide the same level of offense. The Eagles defense probably wins them the game, but their offense keeps it close.
NY Jets @ Baltimore: Over 40 – Both teams are better known for their defenses, but both offenses have actually looked solid so far this season (the Jets have put up 27.7 points per game, the Ravens 28.3). While the Ravens have the best scoring defense in the league (40 points allowed), the line seems a bit low at 40 points—even if the Jets split the difference between their average and the Ravens allowed they put up 20 points—leaving the Ravens just needing 21 in their win to cover the over.
Upset of the Week: Carolina (+6.5/+250 money line) @ Chicago – This one might be an ultimate reach, but I still think that the Bears are vastly overrated, and I think their last two games show that—Mike Martz continues to completely abandon the running game, on a team that needs some balance—and that puts more pressure on a defense that carries the team, but still isn’t as good as their reputation. The Panthers, meanwhile, have completely surprised me—Cam Newton looked good in his keeping his first two starts close, and finally found a way to win last week, despite less than ideal conditions. The Bears are better than the Jaguars—but unless it suddenly turns into monsoon season in Chicago, I think Newton can put up numbers against the Bears defensive backs, and at +250 on the money line, I’ll take the chance that they can win outright.
Editor’s note: Professional athletes often get a bad rap. A handful of chowderheads make headlines on a regular basis for getting arrested or committing other bad deeds. Those incidents often overshadow the good works and interesting careers being pursued by current and former players outside their respective games. We’re planning to make a semi-regular feature out of recognizing some of these former football stars for the contributions they make to society when they leave the spotlight. Here is the first of those profiles.
*****
In 1983, the Denver Broncos traded quarterback Mark Herrmann, offensive lineman Chris Hinton and a first round pick the following year to the Baltimore Colts for John Elway. The trade turned out to be a highway robbery that helped make the Broncos competitive for years into the future.
But it was not the only steal the team made that year. In the 12th round — a round that does not even exist any more — the club selected Karl Mecklenburg, a linebacker from the University of Minnesota.
Though he was drafted late, Mecklenburg always figured he’d make it. And he did, playing playing 12 years in the NFL, amassing 79 sacks, six Pro Bowls and three First-Team All Pro nominations.
Mecklenburg played in three Super Bowls and has been named to the Broncos Ring of Fame and the Colorado Sports Hall of Fame. But his time in the public eye did not end when his NFL career did in 1994. He’s taken on the role of motivational speaker. He helps run a foundation aimed at getting kids to read. And he’s an active member of the Broncos’ alumni.
Mecklenburg shared some thoughts with Zoneblitz this week on his NFL past and his present.
Zoneblitz: You recently wrote a book, Heart of a Student Athlete: All Pro Advice for Competitors and Their Families. What’s in the book and why did you write it? Continue reading
Everyone who pays attention knows there’s a sleazy side of professional sports. College players and agents and money under the table …
Sports Illustrated has an account from Josh Luchs, formerly an NFL agent, where he comes clean on what it took for him to get started in the business and on his exit as well.
I can’t do it any more justice than the story did itself. Click here to go to the story.
We’re not likely to become a site that recognizes every player who decides to retire. But I was struck this morning reading that Aaron Stecker is hanging up his cleats for good.
Stecker was far from a star. He ran for more than 1,500 yards for his career, not in any given season. He also contributed about 1,200 yards receiving. He played on special teams a lot as well.
He missed out on the New Orleans Super Bowl run last year when he left for Atlanta after five years in the Big Easy. But he did win a ring with Tampa.
I think the reason I liked Stecker was that he always stayed out of trouble and he seemed to pop up when it mattered. Couple backs get hurt. No problem. That’s what we’ve got Stecker for. Guys like that are invaluable on good teams.
He went undrafted out of Western Illinois but managed to string together 11 years in the NFL. As he put it in the New Orleans Times Picayune, “I lasted longer than a lot of running backs who got drafted before me.”
Well done.
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