NFL Best Bets: Week 3 – 2012
Good grief, what was I thinking last week. Hindsight is 20/20, but wow. Betting an over on a 51? That’s a huge number for an NFL game. Betting on Kansas City on the road coming off an awful week one performance? Not the strategy a fortune won at gambling is made of.
I paid the price with an 0-4 week, bringing my season total to 1-7. Tony’s misses were a little less stupid than mine, but he still was only 1-3, so his season total is 4-4.
We’ll still give it another go this week – but you might have better chances of winning big if you do the opposite of what we suggest.
San Francisco (-7) at Minnesota – Minus Jerome Simpson, the Vikings have shown no downfield passing ability whatsoever for two weeks. San Francisco, meanwhile, looks like it could be the best team in the NFL. It’s hugely possible that I could be overplaying how bad Minnesota’s chances look in this game, but I don’t think so. I’d be very surprised if they keep this game within a touchdown.
Kansas City at New Orleans: Over 52.5 – I’ll probably pay the price for this, but I’m betting the over on a high number again. The Saints and Chiefs are tied for last in scoring defense, each having given up 75 points in two games, or an average of just under 38 per. The Saints have scored 59, or just under 30. This will probably end 16-10, further proving my brother’s theory about betting against the obvious and on the unlikely. But I’m going the over anyway.
Atlanta (+3) at San Diego – The spread actually started at 1.5 and has moved toward San Diego, but I am not a believer in the Chargers. Their two wins so far have been comfortable but against teams that appear to be in differing levels of disarray. Atlanta destroyed the Chiefs and then earned an impressive win against a Denver team many have picked for the Super Bowl. I am on the Falcons’ bandwagon until given a reason to jump off. I expect them not just to cover but to also win this game straight up.
Upset of the Week: Kansas City (+330) at New Orleans – Truth be told, I think the Saints win this game. But they’ve given ample reason to doubt them over the first two weeks of the season. I can’t figure for the life of me how the moneyline spread on this game is so large. So with the opportunity to potentially make a lot for a little in a matchup of the two teams that probably have looked the worst in all of the NFL, I’ll take the underdog and hold my breath that they turn it around before the Saints.
San Francisco (-7.5) at Minnesota – Given the home field advantage Vegas usually gives (+3), this means the bookies really think the 49ers win by 10. And I would probably bet that as well.
Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Tennessee – I wouldn’t say Detroit has looked great in either of their games, but I would say Tennessee has looked terrible, and their -49 point differential is the worst in the NFL. By 15 points.
Kansas City at New Orleans: Over 53 – I can’t decide if I’m actually betting the unlikely here, as I prefer to do, or if I’m betting the likely. I do know that the Saints and Chiefs have each given up 75 points so far—tied for last in the NFL. It would appear that the Saints defense lacks any extra motivation to make plays, while the Chiefs defense appears to lack the talent to.
Upset of the week: Cincinnati (+3.5, +160) over Washington – As scary as it sounds, I actually like the progress the Bengals have been making with Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis and a sneaky defense, and I correctly picked the Rams to beat the Redskins—and while RG3 still had some gaudy fantasy numbers, he looked pretty ordinary as a passer.