PFHOF Logo-mPro Football Hall of Fame voters charged with selecting the honorees for 2014 may think they made their job easier by selecting Cris Carter as part of the 2013 class. But the strong first-year candidacy of retired Colts wide receiver Marvin Harrison means they’ll be trying yet again to break a logjam at that position.

Carter emerged as the first of three solid candidates – Andre Reed and Tim Brown being the others – who seemed to cancel each other out for years before the 2013 class was announced.

Who they’ll choose between the trio of Harrison, Brown and Reed is just one of the questions that the panel will face as another strong group becomes eligible for the first time.

So who joins senior candidates Ray Guy and Claude Humphrey as the 15 finalists who’ll be debated before the Super Bowl? Then who will the committee ultimately honor with gold jackets in Canton, Ohio next August?

A guess at the 2014 class starts with a look at the 2013 finalists and who were ultimately not selected to the Hall’s 2013 class. Those who survived the cut down from 15 to 10 were Michael Strahan, Jerome Bettis, Charles Haley, Andre Reed and Aeneas Williams.

I go back and forth on Bettis’ qualifications at times, given that for the last few years of his career he was really a short yardage and goal line complement to guys like Willie Parker. But he did have six consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, make six Pro Bowls and finish his career 13,662 rushing yards, which still ranks him sixth all-time. Strahan, I am guessing, missed out because the voters selected Warren Sapp instead. The other three are multi-time finalists. So let’s start with the assumption that all five of these guys will rejoin at least the round of 15.

The five candidates who made finalist status but did not crack the final 10 were Tim Brown, Will Shields, Kevin Greene and two owners, Ed DeBartolo and Art Modell. Let’s start with Shields. There probably isn’t a current day candidate out there that I think more warrants induction than him. In addition to the fact that he played the glory-less position of guard (where even Randall McDaniel had to wait three years for election), he’s had the unfortunate bad luck to be eligible in the same years that Willie Roaf and Dermontti Dawson were selected in 2012 and Larry Allen and Jonathan Ogden made it in 2013. Shields will get inducted and, with McDaniel as a barometer, I think this is his year.

Of the other five, I think Strahan and Brown are locks to make it back to the level of 15. I think DeBartolo has a shot. Modell, on the other hand, remains a polarizing figure whose contributions to the game are overshadowed by his decision to move the Browns to Baltimore. His candidacy likely was helped along last year due to his death. I think the momentum is going to stall.

Other guys who made various semifinalist and finalist lists over the last couple years include Roger Craig, Steve Atwater, Clay Matthews, Paul Tagliabue, Terrell Davis and George Young for the 2012 class and Don Coryell, Joe Jacoby, Albert Lewis, John Lynch and Atwater again last year.

The Hall of Fame voters have repeatedly ignored the safety position despite the presence of several intriguing candidates in recent years. I have to think that at least one of Atwater or Lynch will get in eventually. First-year candidate Rodney Harrison always had a strong, albeit also a dirty, reputation, but I was surprised to see he had only two Pro Bowls and two First Team All Pro awards to his credit. He waits for now and probably longer. Atwater, with his 8/2 profile, has been waiting longer than Lynch, who has a 9/2. I’ll put the former Bronco in before the former Buc/Bronco – even though last year I stuck Lynch in as my surprise inductee.

What about first year guys?

The group of first-year eligible players for the 2014 class is strong, but not as strong as in some recent years. Derrick Brooks is the strongest newcomer, with 11 Pro Bowls and five First Team All Pro awards to his credit. He’ll easily bypass any politicking and head directly to the final day of voting.

There’s been some debate as to whether or not Walter Jones should be eligible for this class due to his having spent the 2009 season in injured reserve. The decision makers say he is, so his 9/4 profile with Seattle make him another top contender.

Marvin Harrison got himself into some legal troubles as his career was winding down. The Colts receiver has kept a relatively low profile for the five years since he left the game,

And Tony Dungy, the humble and successful Tampa and Indy coach who won a Super Bowl with the Colts, also makes the list. Pundits seem to have taken Dungy’s claims that he won’t return to coaching, so I’m going to say that gives him a leg up over a potential return Hall candidate, Bill Cowher, who still pops up from time to time as a possible replacement when jobs open up.

Linebacker Zach Thomas rounds out the best of the first-year candidates. I think he faces an uphill battle. He may be a solid candidate in years down the line, but with Brooks as a virtual lock and several returning linebackers or linebacker/defensive end hybrids, my feeling is he has to wait awhile.

With thanks to this Bleacher Report article for augmenting this list, other first timers whose cases are slightly less strong include Shaun Alexander, Willie Anderson, Warrick Dunn, Sam Madison and Willie McGinest.

So where is our list at?

That leaves us with 13 finalists so far:

Atwater
Bettis
Brooks
Brown
Dungy
Greene
Haley
Harrison
Jones
Reed
Shields
Strahan
Williams

DeBartolo has now been a finalist two years in a row and momentum seems to be building for the former owner of the 49ers, whose reputation seems to be on the mend after his felony issues. I’ll take him as number 14. That leaves six offensive candidates, six defensive players and two coach/contributors. So the final nominee could come from anywhere.

Of candidates who have made a final 15 list in the last six years (thank you again to the Bleacher Report link), Tagliabue and Reed are the only ones who were finalists in 2008 and 2009 who have not yet been inducted. Reed remains on our list. Tagliabue’s momentum has lagged. In 2010, Brown, Haley, Reed and 49ers running back Roger Craig were finalists. The first three remain on our list. Craig has otherwise never gotten a lot of love from voters.

The uninducted finalists from 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 all remain on our list, save for Modell, who we’ve already decided is an unlikely returnee. So that opens this list up to a potential surprise candidate – maybe a Karl Mecklenburg, who is a Zoneblitz favorite for his years with the Minnesota Gophers and his willingness to do an interview with the site a couple years ago.

But I’m thinking it’s going to be hard to not recognize John Lynch for his expansive resume. He might not make the Hall this year – or even ever. But his profile remains great. And, after a flip of the coin, we’ll call him the final member of the 15.

So, who gets in?

To me, Brooks, Jones and Marvin Harrison probably have the strongest case for first-ballot consideration, though my best guess is that only Brooks gets in right away. Harrison and Jones are stuck in position groups with other strong candidates who have waited awhile. Brooks is too, but his resume outpaces.

So, here it is – our best guesses for the class of 2014:

Andy Tony
Derrick Brooks Derrick Brooks
Michael Strahan Michael Strahan
Will Shields Will Shields
Andre Reed Andre Reed
Aeneas Williams Tony Dungy

What’s our track record?

For what it’s worth, last year I got three of the five modern-era candidates correct. Tony got two. How are we going to do this year? Tell us below.