Bet the Mortgage: Week 2, 2017
Slow and steady wins the race … or something like that.
Both of us made slow, incremental progress in week one toward mythical riches and fame. Andy was 2-2, but hit the ones that mattered for a slight profit. Tony was 2-1-1, though a late TD from Drew-Brees-to-Coby-Fleener kept him from winning the under on Saints/Vikings Monday night.
Since he’s usually about half his bankroll in after week one, a nearly $1,000 windfall is a pretty good result for him. So here’s where we stand:
|Last week||Last week $||Overall||Overall $||Bankroll|
$1,000 – New England (-7, +115) at New Orleans – This line opened at -4, and is now anywhere from -6 to -7—I’ll take the Patriots and give the points to get the +100 payout.. Does anyone think the Patriots will really start the season 0-2? The Saints offense is good (especially at home), but their defense is atrocious (let’s not go giving the Vikings the “Most Improved Offense” aware just yet, everyone), so this could easily be an over bet too, even at 56.
$500 – Detroit (+3, +100) at NY Giants – This line has been moving down, as the Lions opened +5—not sure what games the oddsmakers were watching week 1. The Giants didn’t look good, and the Lions beat a favored Cardinals team. To get a positive payout to take the points? Not a problem.
$500 – NY Jets at Oakland Raiders: Under 43.5 (-110) – I don’t normally like under bets, but two in two weeks—73% of bets are currently taking the under here, and for good reason. The Raiders will be happy to jump out to a lead, and milk the clock with Marshawn Lynch, and the Jets will be hapless to do much about it. They might pick up a garbage score, but I don’t see them reaching 20 points, nor the Raiders reaching 30.
$300 –Buffalo (money line +265) at Carolina: – I was going to go with Washington over the Rams, since Washington opened as a favorite but has since moved to a slight underdog—but the money line was only paying +135, so I’ll take a shot on the Bills. A lot of teams have written the Bills off with some of the moves they made this offseason—but they still have Shady McCoy, and Carolina was pretty shaky in their week 1 win.
$1,200 – New England (-6.5, -110) at New Orleans – The Patriots got bushwacked on opening night by a Chiefs team with a surprise rookie weapon at RB and a QB motivated to step up his game. The Saints will feel the wrath of angry Brady this week. The Saints will score some, though, so keep an eye also on the over/under, which is right now at 56, up from 53.5.
$800 – Denver (+2, -110) vs Dallas – Let me get this straight. The Cowboys take down the Odell Beckham-less Giants on Sunday night and now they get to be favored in Denver against a still rock-solid defense? I don’t see it. The Cowboys are probably better than I am giving them credit for, but Denver is still good too.
$800 – Green Bay (+3, -110) at Atlanta – The Falcons underwhelmed in Chicago last week, nearly stealing defeat from the jaws of victory at the last minute. They still strike me as a team vulnerable to a Super Bowl hangover. Meanwhile, the Packers’ defense played as well as it has in ages in knocking off the Seahawks. And the Packers offense has actually always been built for turf.
$400 – Cleveland (+310 money line) at Baltimore – I’m not sure the Browns are ready for this yet, but I think the team is heading in the right direction. They were plucky last week against Pittsburgh. The offensive line should be solid. The defense is better. DeShone Kizer has promise. Can they put it together this week?