As I mentioned in our picks segment, the divisional playoff round might be my favorite week of football all season. This week we get four games, all of which feature great teams, rivalries or some other reason why it could be compelling football.

Now, based on last week’s results, I’d suggest betting against anything I think is going to happen. I missed three point spread picks (two by two points or less, but still) and three over/under guesses – in keeping with a miserable betting performance during the season.

But the way I see it, that just means there is plenty of room for improvement.

So – here goes. This is what I think is going to happen this weekend (odds information from Vegasinsider.com and current as of Noon, January 8):

Saturday, January 11

New Orleans at Seattle
3:35 central, FOX
Line: Seattle by 7.5
Over/Under: 48.5

I picked Seattle to win the Super Bowl going into the season. Despite numbers showing that six seeds have had a tremendous amount of success against one seeds in recent years, I’m not about to change my mind now. It will be closer than the Monday night game these teams played in December. But the result will be the same. Seattle will comfortably beat the Saints behind the crowd noise and a stifling defense capable of limiting the Saints’ offensive weapons.

Picks: Seattle -7.5, Under 48.5

Indianapolis at New England
7:15 central, CBS
Line: New England by 7
Over/Under: 53

I think these lines are about right. Both teams are vulnerable on defense. Both QBs are skilled. Andrew Luck is putting up some pretty solid numbers as he familiarizes himself with new weapons in the post-Reggie Wayne injury days. I think the home crowd and plenty of playoff experience put the Patriots over the top, but I think Indy puts up a good fight. Pats win. Colts cover.

Picks: Indianapolis +7, Over 53

Sunday, January 12

San Francisco at Carolina
Noon central, FOX
Line: San Francisco by 1
Over/Under: 42

I love this game. I watched a lot of last week’s playoff games and several college bowl games that were exciting due to explosive passing games and lots of scoring. But the purist in me loves a good smash mouth defensive struggle. This game should be that and then some. I am thoroughly impressed with the way Carolina developed throughout the season. Cam Newton is coming on as a leader. And the defense, wow. But San Francisco is finding itself and Colin Kaepernick has been here before. I wouldn’t be surprised by either team winning, but I’m going with the Niners.

Picks: San Francisco -1, Under 42

San Diego at Denver
3:40 central, CBS
Line: Denver by 9.5
Over/Under: 55.5

Here’s a quick shout out to a buddy of mine who was well known in the Denver baseball community several years ago, Don Hinchey, who passed away about a year ago. The last time I spoke with him, he was excited to learn about the Peyton Manning acquisition. I think he’d have enjoyed the atmosphere in the Rocky Mountain region this weekend.

The Chargers have enjoyed a bit of a renaissance under first-year coach Mike McCoy this season and Philip Rivers is on a roll. But I think it ends here. San Diego will put up a fight, but the Broncos, after last year’s upset loss to Baltimore in this same round, will not be taking anyone lightly. Peyton Manning only has so many of these postseason runs left in him. I highly doubt there’s another divisional round upset in play this season.

Picks: Denver -9.5, Over 55.5