Alternative Picks: Week 4, 2021

Well, this is getting ugly quickly. Tony crushed Andy, who missed his last five alternative picks in week three. He jumps out to a commanding 10 game lead early on. He’s winning decisively in the straight-up picks, as well.

1) Andy – Bills over Texans – Maybe it’s because I’m off to a bad start with my picks this season, but I am not confident in many of week four’s games. This has easily the largest spread in Vegas, but even this one gives me pause. Buffalo is the far better team, but Houston has been a bit pluckier than expected. If I was in Vegas, the +1,000-money line bet would be pretty enticing.

2) Tony – Chiefs over Eagles – I decided to go second specifically to let you have the Bills…not that I would have chosen differently, but I saw several Bills fans online yesterday talking about how they didn’t need one of their starters to play this week, so he could be healthy for the Chiefs in Week 5 — awfully haughty for a 2-1 team. Meanwhile, if the Chiefs can’t beat this Eagles team, they really should start re-thinking that $450 million contract for Patrick Mahomes …

3) Tony – Saints over Giants – When in doubt, start picking against teams that can’t seem to figure it out. The Giants have started 0-3 and appear to be the doormat in a still weak NFC East.

4) Andy – Bucs over Patriots – Ok, I’m not really a believer that the legacy of Bill Belichick will be sullied if he loses this game or anything like that. He’s a great coach no matter what. It’s just that when great coaches have great players, they’re even better. Right now, Belichick lacks great players. Tampa does not. Brady wins in his return.

5) Tony – Titans over Jets – The Bucs/Patriots matchup is being completely over hyped–I saw The Athletic call it possibly the biggest regular season game in NFL history…a 2-1 defending Super Bowl champ going to play a 1-2 team with a rookie QB. The Titans haven’t looked like the team a lot predicted so far this year either, and AJ Brown being out hurts, but they have Derrick Henry and are playing another rookie QB that has looked mostly lost so far this year.

6) Andy – Packers over Steelers – Wow. The biggest regular season game in NFL history? That’s as preposterous a statement as has ever been uttered. It’s not even the game I’m most interested in watching in Prime Time this upcoming week. More on that later, I suspect. Anyway, I’m flying blind at this point. Green Bay appears to have righted the ship. Pittsburgh does not.

7) Tony – Bengals over Jaguars – I’m not sure if the Bengals really are very good, but the Jaguars have pretty much proven what they are already…but hey, they got Dan Arnold.

8) Andy – Rams over Cardinals – I think Arizona and Kyler Murray are good. I think the Rams currently are the best team in the league. Could there be a bit of a letdown after the Tampa Beatdown? Maybe, but … I doubt it.

9) Tony – Football Team over Falcons – Andy jumped my pick of the Packers over the Steelers a couple picks back, which my logic was largely based on just how cooked Ben Roethlisberger looks. Similar to that, Matt Ryan looks like he may be on a rapid slide down as well … maybe it’s just not having a WR1 & WR1A anymore, but the little bit I’ve seen of him this season doesn’t inspire confidence.

10) Andy – Browns over Vikings – Kirk Cousins might be playing out of his mind right now, but Cleveland brings a pass rush I don’t think he’s seen yet. And the offense … the Chubb/Hunt combo will eat the Minnesota defense alive.

11) Tony – Lions over Bears – This might be going out on a bit of a limb, but as little faith as I ever had about the Lions new coaching staff, I’ve had even less about Matt Nagy for a couple years now. Classic “my system” guy, rather than trying to mold the system to the players–which results in the kind of debacle Bears fans saw last week. As a Vikings fan, I love it–as an NFL fan, I say the Bears need to fire Nagy as soon as possible to avoid “Trubiskying” Justin Fields.

12) Andy – Dolphins over Colts – Revenge game for Jacoby Brissett. Enough said.

13) Tony – 49ers over Seahawks – The 49ers are at home and could very easily be 3-0. A lot of Seahawks fans were claiming they got robbed against the Titans, but those people must be a little disheartened with how easily the Vikings beat them last week.

14) Andy – Panthers over Cowboys – Dallas put it to Philadelphia on Monday night, but whoopie. Until proven otherwise, the NFC East is the worst division in football. And the Panthers have been playing pretty well on both sides of the ball. I see an upset brewing … would it really be an upset?

15) Tony – Chargers over Raiders – Who would have guessed that this game would be for at least a share of the lead in the AFC West? Las Vegas has generally out played the Chargers this year, at least offensively — but I’m not sure the Raiders have faced a team as well rounded as the Chargers, either, so I’ll take the Chargers at home.

16) Andy – Ravens over Broncos – Over the recent years Los Angeles/San Diego and Oakland/Las Vegas have been two of the most unreliable teams to buy into, but both seem to be rounding into legit shape right now. I’m glad Tony took that one — I think I believe in the Raiders a bit more than the Chargers at this point, but while I have no idea who will win, that, not the Patriots/Bucs game, is the prime-time game I am most anticipating this weekend. As for Denver and Baltimore, the Broncos have built a 3-0 record impressively, outscoring teams by an average 25-9. That has come, however, against the Jets, Jaguars and Giants, a combined 0-9. That’s no rip on the Broncos — you play who you play and good on them for winning. But the Ravens are a more battle-tested 2-1. This should be a quality game, but I’ll take the road dog to win outright.

Andy has kept the straight-up picks a little bit closer, but there’s still a growing gap there, as well.

We’re heading to the quarter pole or, at least what used to be the quarter pole before the NFL added this idiotic 17^th game. Will they do nothing to add a few more dollars to the bottom line? I guess not – now they’re talking a Monday night playoff game. Well, good for them, I guess. We keep buying, so they’ll keep taking our cash. Anyway…