Bet the Mortgage: Week 12, 2019

Damn, if there were ever a year to be spending the football season in Las Vegas …

Certainly not going to get too heady about this, but both of us are rolling in it, at least so far. Andy’s on a 6-1-1 roll since going 0-4 three weeks ago. Tony’s mostly plugging along at 2-2, but is winning more big ones than he’s losing.

And for the bets…

Andy – It’s weird to be ramping up my bets this late in the season knowing that even if I lose most of them, I’ll still be playing with house money … but here goes …

$2,500 – New England (-6.5, -105) vs Dallas – So, the Patriots are good. We know that. Dallas is just … meh. Look at the schedule. They’re 6-4 with two wins over the Giants, and single victories against Washington, Miami, Philadelphia and Detroit. So, arguably, two wins against average-at-best teams and four against dregs. New Orleans? Loss. Green Bay? Loss. Minnesota? Loss. Add in the Jets loss and … this team has a chance to make a statement this weekend, but I find zero reason to believe they can or will.

$2,000 – Tampa Bay at Atlanta: Over 51.5 (-109) – This started at 54.5. Not sure why it has come down. The Falcons have certainly played better the last couple weeks, but they’re not world-beaters, by any stretch. Even when he throws three or four picks, Jameis Winston still puts up points. And Julio Jones/Calvin Ridley should feast on Tampa Bay this week. Yay, points.

$2,000 – Baltimore (-3.5, -105) at Los Angeles Rams – Jared Goff looks lost this season. The run game isn’t the same. The pass game isn’t the same. The defense isn’t the same. And the Ravens come into this game on fire, with an opportunity to continue showing a national audience Monday night how for-real Lamar Jackson is.

$500 – Miami (+425 money line) at Cleveland – Lost amid the Myles Garrett controversy of the last week, the Browns have won two straight to claw themselves back into some semblance of decency. But this team remains a significant disappointment and a massive cluster-bleep overall. And they’re now down their best defensive player for, most likely, the rest of the season. I’m not saying the Dolphins have turned a corner or anything like that, but Miami is playing better. They were competitive for a while last week before Buffalo pulled away and they won the two before that. This is no gimme, but it’s hardly as far-fetched as Vegas making Cleveland the week’s biggest favorite.

Tony – Sounds about right, have one of the better seasons I’ve had for this gimmick, and still be $5k behind Andy.

$2,500 – Baltimore (-3.5, -105) at LA Rams – Little bit scary taking a road team here, but Baltimore is just rolling right now.

$1,500 – Pittsburgh (-6, -108) at Cincinnati – I get that it’s in Cincinnati, but how is this line moving in the Bengals direction?  Yeah, a couple of key Steelers are hurt. Against an NFL team, that might matter.

$1,000 – Miami (+10.5, -109) at Cleveland – Betting on three road teams, but at least I’m getting points here–just too many. I’m not convinced the Dolphins will find a way to win this one, but I sure don’t think the Browns can blow them out.

$1,000 – NY Giants (+240 moneyline) at Chicago – Four bets, four road teams. I almost went even more, but I’m worried that the Bears will fake another Mitch Trubisky injury even earlier this week, giving them a chance to pull off the win. The Giants aren’t good, but Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley are better than anything the Bears have.