New Sack Data Good or Bad for Jim Marshall’s Hall of Fame Claim?

by Tony | Jul 26, 2021 | Hall of Fame

A couple weeks back, ProFootballReference.com, the most comprehensive database of football stats online, announced that they were adding unofficial sack totals to player stats from 1960 to 1981, after two researchers compiled the data utilizing box scores, game stories and film.  

One of the researchers, Jack Turney, was quoted in this 2006 story about Michael Strahan’s career sack total vs Lawrence Taylor, who’s rookie season of 1981 isn’t counted amongst the official sack totals. Even in 2006, Turney had data back to 1970 for stats. 

While no mention is made of the bogus Strahan single season sack record—bogus both because of the pathetic “sack” that set the record, and because the unofficial stats show that the record was actually 23 sacks, set by Al Baker in his 1978 rookie season—the article did mention the opinion that: 

“Turney’s research undoubtedly helped Youngblood reach the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2001, 17 years after he left the game.” 

Interesting, because when I first heard about the unofficial stats being published, on a local sports radio show, my thoughts (and the hosts, I believe) also immediately thought of another Hall of Fame candidacy—that of Minnesota Vikings Purple People Eater Jim Marshall. 

Marshall is largely known for two things from his career—his Iron Man streak of 282 games played (and 270 consecutive starts), and famously scoring a safety for the San Francisco 49ers, running the wrong direction after picking up a fumble in a 1964 matchup. Interestingly, he is less known for holding the NFL record for most career fumble recoveries in a career, with 30—a stat that I have to admit forgetting about myself. 

Perhaps less known about Marshall, though, is that he too was a prolific sacker of the quarterback—his Wikipedia page already credited him with 127 sacks unofficially, and the data from ProFootballReference.com puts him at 130.5 sacks—good for 22nd all-time (tied with Coy Bacon). 

Ahead of Marshall on the unofficial list, only Julius Peppers (159.5), Terrell Suggs (139), DeMarcus Ware (138.5), Jared Allen (136), John Abraham (133.5), Leslie O’Neal (132.5), and Baker (131) are not in the Hall of Fame (along with Bacon).  Peppers, Suggs, Ware and Allen seem likely to get in the Hall of Fame, while I have heard arguments made for Abraham and O’Neal to eventually make it too.  

Many will argue that Marshall got that many sacks because of how long he played (18 seasons in the NFL), and because many of those seasons were played with Alan Page (148.5 sacks unofficially) and Carle Eller (133.5 sacks unofficially), both members of the Hall. And those people aren’t wrong—but he still got the sacks. 

And that Iron Man streak—the current active leader for consecutive starts, Ndamukong Suh, would need to start every game for more than the next seven seasons to reach that mark, even with 17 game seasons –is frankly amazing. Especially playing in the trenches, in an era with less than stellar medical capabilities.  

So will this new data from ProFootballReference.com make much difference in Marshall’s claim to a spot in Canton? Based on the previous unofficial count of 127 sacks, it only actually moved him up one spot—from 24th overall, behind Hall of Famer Claude Humphrey (130 sacks) and ahead of Hall of Famer Derrick Thomas (126.5). One Vikings blog points out that his comparatively paltry four seasons of 10+ sacks, 12 seasons of less than seven sacks, and career average of 6.5 sacks per year don’t compare favorably to current Viking Hall of Famers Carl Eller, Alan Page, Chris Doleman and John Randle–nor likely Hall of Famer Allen, or even not likely Hall of Famer Everson Griffen. 

So maybe the data won’t help—even though sacks aren’t the only thing for defensive linemen (especially since they didn’t officially exist until 1981), and the abundance of 70’s Vikings already in the Hall may also continue to work against him. 

But as all true homer fans will do, I will continue to bang the drum (or blow the Gjallarhorn) for Marshall until he gets that call.  

Deciding the Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2022

by Paul L. | Jun 14, 2021 | Hall of Fame

Photo by AJ Guel Photography

As we move into the summer months, for those interested in the Pro Football Hall of Fame thoughts and discussions often focus on the upcoming enshrinement of the next class of players, coaches and contributors at the Hall in Canton during the first week in August. Events this year that will include both the 20 member class of 2020 , including Centennial Class (elected, but due to the Covid pandemic not enshrined last year), plus the 8 member class of 2021. Congratulations to the newest members of the Hall, which now stands at 346 individuals representing over 100 years of professional football.

But for others who closely follow and debate the selection of PFHOFers, summer brings another annual tradition- the start of the election process for the next class, in this case for 2022. Starting with the selection of the finalists from the senior, coach and contributor categories by their respective subcommittees in late August. This will be followed by the preliminary list of modern candidates for the class of 2022 which will advance to the 25 semi-finalists (November), 15 finalists (January 2022), and voting for the 5 modern players (plus decisions on the senior, coach and contributor) the day before Super Bowl LVI at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA, February 13th, 2022. So let the debates begin!

Starting with the senior committee finalist selection, we can consider those players we know were considered a year ago but not selected: Stanley Morgan, George Kunz, Randy Gradishar, Cliff Branch, Roger Craig, Ken Anderson, Ken Riley, Chuck Howley, Tommy Nobis, LC Greenwood, Joe Klecko (note: unofficial list as PFHOF does not publicly announce the 12 players considered by the seniors committee. Rumors on social media suggested that Riley finished 2nd, in 2021 voting – to finalist and elected PFHOF Dallas Cowboys WR Drew Pearson. However, we know actually very little about the finalists, discussions and voting by the rotating group of five senior committee members who make the selection to present to the full committee at their meeting each year the day before the Superbowl. Several of these possible senior candidates were finalists for the 2020 Centennial Class, and suggestions have made over the years that many have been part of the process of selecting senior candidates in the past. Will recent momentum carry Riley to election (also the focus of a high profile social media campaign by Bengal fans) or will this finally be the year for Gradishar, Branch or Klecko? Are the prospects dimming for pre 1960s candidates such as Ox Emerson, Lavvie Dilweg and Al Wistert?

For 2021, the first election that provided for a separate coaches category, saw Oakland/LA Raiders coach Tom Flores elected into the Hall. As to clues to the possible next coach under consideration, unfortunately we don’t know exactly whom voters are considering, but certain ones are very likely: Don Coryell, Mike Holmgren Buddy Parker, Dan Reeves, and Dick Vermeil (all finalists for the 2020 Centennial Class), with Marty Schottenheimer another likely candidate. All deserving names, which is leading to a difficult decision by the coaches subcommittee this August. And for the contributor candidate, names that seem to draw interest and attention as potential contenders include Art McNally, Robert Kraft, Art Modell, Bud Adams, Bucko Kilroy, and several other owners, scouts and general managers. But at this point, a clear contender does not appear to exist, although many are advocating for McNally to become the first on-field NFL official to be elected into PFHOF.

Next we have the always contentious selection of the five (maximum) modern candidates; a process that will start in September with over 100 nominees, including many returning finalists from 2021, and as in every election year first year ballot players to be under discussion. In this latter group we will see Demarcus Ware, Andre Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, Tony Romo, Nick Mangold, Vince Wilfork, and Devin Hester to appear as candidates. Recent elections have resulted in an large increase in the number of 1st ballot players elected – an issue of much debate in the media – including by some current voters who view the trend as disconcerting. An issue that is unlikely to be at the forefront this election cycle, with only Ware perhaps having best chance at election.

What we will have is a strong group of returning candidates, including several who have now been finalists multiple times in recent elections, highlighted by those players remaining from the 2021 final ten stage: Tony Boselli, Zack Thomas, Richard Seymour and Leroy Butler. Others likely to receive considerable discussion among the voters will be other 2021 semi-finalists, such as Jared Allen, Ronde Barber, Torry Holt, Sam Mills, Reggie Wayne, and Bryant Young. In addition, the candidacy of special team player Steve Tasker will likely receive plenty of attention as he appears on the modern candidate ballot for the last time, and perhaps represents an opportunity by the voters to advance him to the finalist round as the first non-kicker or punter special team player to be discussed by the full Hall selection committee.

That gets us the start of the eight month long process of debates and voting stages for the PFHOF Class of 2022 – let’s all jump in with our views, make cases and engage in our annual contributions to the always interesting and unknown process to add 8 more members to the Hall in Canton.

First-ballot enshrinees dominate Hall of Fame’s 2021 class

by Andy | Feb 7, 2021 | Hall of Fame

As expected, QB Peyton Manning and DB Charles Woodson were selected for induction in the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s 2021 class. Perhaps a bit more surprisingly, WR Calvin Johnson joined them, giving the class a trio of first-ballot inductees.

Joining the three first-timers are G Alan Faneca and S John Lynch from the modern era; Tom Flores from the coach category, scout Bill Nunn from the contributor category and WR Drew Pearson from the senior category.

The group was selected by the Hall’s 48-person selection committee during a virtual meeting Jan. 19.

It is, in my opinion, a strong class. (more…)

Pro Football HOF finalists for 2021 class named

by Andy | Jan 5, 2021 | Hall of Fame

Peyton Manning, Charles Woodson and Calvin Johnson headline a star-studded collection of first-time finalists for enshrinement in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Jared Allen, Ronde Barber and Clay Matthews Jr. round out the half-dozen first-time finalists, who are among 15 modern-era players remaining alive for possible selection to the Hall in the class of 2021.

It’s the closest Matthews, brother of Hall of Fame guard Bruce Matthews, has come to being selected. He’s been a semifinalist several times, but makes the final list in his last year of modern-era eligibility.

Finalists are: (more…)

Picking the Class of 2021 – Hall of Fame Semifinalists Announced

by Paul L. | Nov 24, 2020 | Hall of Fame

Editor’s Note: Paul sent us the bulk of this post some time back…we’ve modified it slightly to adjust for the fact that the nominees were cut down to the semifinalists list announced today…and we will add our predictions in the comments.

With today’s announcement that the 130 modern era nominees has been cut to 25 semi-finalists, we move onto the next step in the process to cut the list to 15 finalists (early January), and finally naming of the class on Selection Saturday when the Hall voters will meet in Tampa on February 6th (hopefully), the day before the Super Bowl, with the official announcement later that evening during the annual NFL Honors show (although news will certainly filter out via social media by 5-6p that day).

The focus of attention will be on another loaded first ballot group of candidates with QB Peyton Manning, CB Charles Woodson, WR Calvin Johnson, and DE Jared Allen. Plus likely returning finalists including S Leroy Butler (2^nd year as finalist), OT Tony Boselli (5^th year), OG Alan Faneca (6^th yr), S John Lynch (8^th yr),  DT Richard Seymour (3^rd yr), and LB Zack Thomas (2^nd yr).

Predicting the five modern candidates to be elected can be challenging as always a surprise or two, rules allow for 3-5 but recent elections has seen the maximum of 5 and we can assume same for class of 2021 as voters have plenty of deserving players to get into the Hall eventually.  Voters typically are very quiet leading up to and after the selection meeting, making it very difficult to determine any preferences or popular candidates.  This year will be no different, in fact perhaps even more challenging as there have been some changes to the committee membership, adding a few new voices and opinions into the 48 member group who will make the final selections via a series of votes from 15 to 10 and finally to 5, who then require 80% from the committee to be elected.

But we can start with some pretty basic assumptions when looking to predict the class of 2021 moderns: QB Payton Manning and CB Charles Woodson will be locks to be elected.  Although the term “lock” is often misused by many when considering 1^st ballot elections, in the case of these two candidates it is not an overstatement or misjudgment. That leaves 3 remaining slots for modern candidates to be filled by the votes, and one that is very likely to be given to Pittsburg Steeler OG Alan Faneca, a deserving player who has waited too long in the minds of many and will also benefit from the voters support for OL to be added (his profile of 6x first team all pro, 9x pro bowls, first team all decade, and SB make him very qualified).  It will be the final 2 slots were the discussions, debate and voting will be interesting and certainly more challenging to predict.  But that never stopped any of us from trying before, so let’s have at it.

First, I think perhaps the most controversial and discussed aspect of the class of 2021 elections will be that Detroit Lions WR Calvin “Megatron” Johnson will not be selected.  He certainly has the credentials with 3x first team all pro selections, 6x pro bowl and 2010s all decade team (along with NE Patriots OG Logan Mankins he becomes first from that all decade team to appear on PFHOF ballot).  But many fans and supporters are missing the reality that the voters do not tend to support 1^st ballot elections for WRs and also look to delay elections for short career candidates – Johnson played for nine seasons, hence lacks major career receiving statistics.  There will certainly be support in the room for him, he could very well could make the final 10 stage, but I foresee a wait of a few years before election.   Also worth noting that WRs are really crowding the ballot with Johnson, plus Torry Holt (2020 finalist), Jimmy Smith, Hines Ward, Reggie Wayne (2020 finalist) and others-any more to join in the next few years.  Voters will have their hands full in coming elections to sort out a massive logjam at the WR position.

So back to those two other slots (after predicting election of Manning, Woodson and Faneca).  One historical trend of voters is addressing the wait for deserving candidates who continue to appear as finalist but await election.  I am predicting that they will address this concern for OT Tony Boselli and elect him into this class.  And yes I know that two OL elected is a rare occurrence, but given this will be his 5^th year on the ballot (and he finished in final 10 each of the last three elections so he has support of voters) will convince voters it’s time to elect the first Jacksonville Jaguar to the Hall.  That leaves one final slot, and the 5^th modern candidate elected is often the most difficult to predict and this year is no different in that regard.  The top contender should be viewed as Lynch, Seymour or Thomas. And one could make the case for any of the three (or Butler for that matter), it will be a real toss up how 48 voters view these candidates and who secures enough support to election.  I am usually dismissive of the “home town” influence playing a factor – that the Superbowl teams or location influences the voters when considering modern candidates for the Hall – but in this case I am going to go with former Tampa Bay Buc Safety John Lynch as my prediction.  But admit that it could very well be Seymour or Thomas as both are deserving and have their supporters.

So there you have it, my class of 2021 modern predictions of Payton Manning, Charles Woodson, Alan Faneca, Tony Boselli, and John Lynch.  Anyone else willing to go out on a limb with their reputation on the line and make a prediction?  Leave your thoughts in the comments below.