So we’re just a few days removed from Matthew Stafford leading riding Cooper Kupp’s coattails in the Lions Rams’ Super Bowl victory, and as with all first-time QB Super Bowl winners, the Hall of Fame questions have started.
Unlike two years ago, when I think it was mostly parody asking about Patrick Mahomes (who may well be on his way, but was only in his second full year as a starter), Stafford actually has a resume built up that can be analyzed:
- 13 years in the league
- 49,995 yards passing (12th all-time)
- 323 touchdowns (12th all-time)
- 91.1 career rating (21st all-time)
- 34 comebacks, 42 game-winning drives
- 1 Super Bowl victory
Of course, he also has a few other career highlights:
- One Pro Bowl appearance (which shocks me…even this year he didn’t make it)
- Zero All-Pro selections
- 7 losing seasons (out of 12 years that he started at least 8 games)
- Only four playoff appearances, and zero wins before this season
Richard Sherman weighed in on Twitter:
“I’m gonna talk about it on the podcast but the HOF bar is incredibly low now. Like a participation trophy. No all decade team. No All pro. No MVP. 1 Pro bowl. Not even MVP of the SB. Never considered the best in any year he played. At least M Ryan has an MVP.”
“There is no measuring stick that makes Stafford a Hall of Famer other than playing in the most passer happy decade in NFL history. Inflated numbers make ever QB that starts 10+ years a ‘hof.’”
So did Michael Robinson, for what it’s worth:
“Yes he’s a gold jacket, ABSOLUTELY. The ultimate team goal, to win a Lombardi, Matthew Stafford actually has, and he was a huge part of winning this Super Bowl.”
And like many other players and coaches of late, his wife chimed in on it:
“And now … the debate on the HOF? We shouldn’t be talking about the HOF because he isn’t done playing the game yet. If you don’t believe he is a HOFer … I can’t wait for him to prove you wrong in his remaining years … just like he did IN ONE YEAR to everyone who said all the things listed above. So let’s table this talk until he actually retires? Thank you.”
The question even came up in the comments here on Zoneblitz already.
So what say you, the Zoneblitz faithful? Leave your thoughts in the comments below…
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As much as I hate agreeing with him, Richard Sherman is correct. Inflation of stats makes too many QB of today look like they’re better than they are, compared to QB of the past.
But his wife isn’t wrong either–his story isn’t done yet. But he needs probably another…5-6 years like this one, to make up for it? Probably needs at least one more SB win in there, too. And get him to a few more Pro Bowls, at least.
Tony, re: Sherman, you should not hate to agree with him. He is incredibly insightful and knowledgeable, even if you might not like his politics (or recent personal incident). His podcast with Collinsworth was incredible. The man knows football.
Re: Stafford, he will always be a “polarizing” HOF candidate because he is a classic case of self-contradiction. My oldest son idolized Megatron when he was young. As a result, I’ve watched A LOT of Stafford’s career and followed every game of it to gauge my son’s likely mood. And the biggest takeaway is that Super Bowl LVI is effectively a microcosm of Stafford’s career. He is incapable of playing a clean game. He seems almost allergic to prosperity. But there are very few QBs of his generation that I would rather have needing a last second drive. It has been reported (but not enough) that exactly half of his career wins have come on a 4th Quarter or OT drive. Thing about that for a second. He has 46 such drives (which is more than Elway!) but has only won 90 games total. Now some of this is a result of playing for the Lions. But, honestly, a lot is on him. 14-0 leads commonly turn into 14-21 deficits (after multiple INTs) that often turn into 29-28 wins on a miracle last drive.
Does this make him a HOFer? Depends. Do you value theatrics, arm strength, courage (the NFL films video of him beating Cleveland with a broken collar bone is amazing!)? Then maybe. Do you value consistency, game management, and taking what the other team gives you? Then never. For every argument in favor of Stafford (46 career last second drives!), there will always be a counter argument (no all pros!). For example, Stafford went to one pro bowl, but you won’t be surprised that he was the MVP.
To me, he is this generation’s Drew Bledsoe, Ken O’Brien, Jim Plunkett, or Archie Manning. Amazing talent. Amazing competitor. But his lack of team success isn’t entirely a result of the teams he played for because he couldn’t quite ever put it altogether (including even this year). Manning, Brady, and Brees would have found a way to win more in Detroit. They just would have.
But not being a HOFer isn’t a dig. Stafford played his way. And he won a Super Bowl (with a wild no look pass of 30 yards!). He is a classic HOVG player up until now. But maybe he can close his career with a dominate ending like Van Brocklin or Riggins or Mills. It won’t be boring.
millions of words and thousands of Twitter posts on this topic since SB – almost more that then actual game, ah….alas. Although I guess its natural to look at the SB winning QB sitting in the top 10 of career passing status and past judgement on his merits for PFHOF, and I know timing is driven by being in the spotlight at the biggest public and media focus on the NFL and the Ram, but as of today he is not worthy of PFHOF consideration. That judgement can wait several more years (and no I don’t need Richard Sherman making that clear for us, great guy, smart but he’s not adding anything new to the discussion, and frankly as current player and likely PFHOFer himself one day, he’s entitled to his opinion but should take the high road and just stay out of the public debate on this.)
In my view the only players from this SB who are PFHOFers (and both likely were already getting in before game) are Aaron Donald and Von Miller. Everyone else getting that ring, still going to be looking in from the outside of the Hall-end of story.
Winning the SB helps but I never thought he was much of a leader or elevated the talent around him but if he can string together more winning seasons while coming close on meeting team expectations, he has a chance. We all know he can throw the football and some people believe that’s enough to make the Hall but I disagree. Winning a SB, even with an all-star cast, helps any QB.
He’s not there yet. He could get there, especially now that he’s out of Detroit. But he’s not there yet.
Teams win championships and Stafford never had a team in Detroit. When a franchise wins one playoff game since 1957 with players like Barney, Sims, Sanders and C.Johnson, then perhaps the problem isn’t you.
All-Pros and All Decade are also damn hard for QBs. There are only two selections per year in an era of Brady, Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Wilson and now Mahomes, Breaking into that top two is nigh on impossible and a failure to do so should not be held against him.
To a lesser extent the Pro Bowl is the same. It’s a popularity contest when you give fans a vote and now that Stafford has some silverware and is playing in big market for a championship winning team you’ll suddenly see his Pro Bowl voting popularity take a huge leap in the future. The eye test tells me he’s much better than a one Pro Bowl QB. Stafford has a bit of Brett Favre in him. A gunslinger who will wow with some amazing throws but also prone to interceptions.
As Andy said, he’s not there yet but is at least on the radar. With a strong finish to his career his counting stats could approach 70,000 yards and 450 TDs
He is for sure ballot worthy and perhaps Semi-Finalist worthy at the moment. He doesn’t need another SB to make it, but it would put him in for sure. I know Jim Plunkett has been a hot topic in the past. I do not view him(Jim) as a HOFer. He won 2 SBs, but it wasn’t like he was playing lights out. He was on some of the greatest football teams in NFL history with the Raiders. My biggest “knock” on him is he was very inconsistent throughout his career. But back to Matthew. He was on an inconsistent team. Lions never really provided him a decent run game. Think they went several years without someone eclipsing 100 yards on the ground. Of course, thus his stats being so high in career passing stats. Rams are built for the now. Aaron Donald retiring would be a big hit, but they still have depth.
I disagree with Richard Sherman. I think most who follow football and look at the past players’ statistics can determine what is considered “great”. 40k yards in the 50s-90s meant you’re on your way to Canton. In 1999 , 7 QBs amassed 40k or more yards. All are in the HOF. Now, just 32 years later, we have 22 with that many yardage. With Russell WIlson just behind with 37k. Patrick Mahomes is for sure on his way, but he has 18k. He can easily end up with 50k-60k with 10-12 Pro Bowls and 4-6 First Team APs. We are entering an interesting era for QBs for sure.
I meant 23 years later, not 32. Sorry
yes just like the 2000s era WRs with 900+receptions that now logjam the PFHOF ballot, voters will also need to consider how to effectively evaluate the 10-15 QBs from 2000-2020 seasons where 4,000 y seasons and careers with 60,000y are more common. For both positions it will need to take into account more than just total career stats but how they compare relative to their peers in terms of both their stats and other achievements, honors and accomplishments-and for QBs winning SB matters in that debate.
Stafford’s Pro Bowl season was 2014 when the Lions were 11-5, but it was nowhere close to his best season. Just shows how much is given to a team’s record when it comes to QBs and the Pro Bowl.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/StafMa00.htm
I Just dont see him as a hall of famer just yet
He still has time. Right now in my estimation, his career is slightly behind Phil Simms and slightly better than Boomer Esiason. Neither are in the HOF. But he still has 5 or 6 good years left in him with today’s rules. Let us see where he is 5 years from now.
And with Brees, BenR, Brady (likely), and Rodgers (perhaps in few years) out of the league, there will be more all pro/pro bowl slots and if Stafford can continue to turn out 4500Y 30TD seasons he could pad his PFHOF resume, and if he plays long enough to hold top 5 career passing stats five years after retirement he would be well positioned for Hall consideration ……..but at age 34 as much as it is possible in this era for QBs to stay healthy and play into late 30s or 40s, health and desire need to be there, example #1-Tony Romo career end came fast before he could build PFHOF resume.
Romo and now Aikman are making $17m for easy part time work 1/2 of the year, that’s going to be real tempting work for high profile QBs in their 30s.
He just threw for his 350th TD pass. Every QB that has done that and won SB as a starter are in the HOF among those eligible. His lack of Pro Bowls and All Pros are what keeps him from getting in right away. But I do think he is worthy. The Pro Bowl is honestly a joke now a days. It’s just a popularity contest. Brent Huntley made it last year and he was primarily a backup. And hard for him to make AP selections with Brady,Manning,Brees,and Mahomes in his Era. Maybe he plays another 2 years and pushes 400 TDs, which regardless of winning a SB or not is HOF worthy for any QB to be honest. He is for sure going to be pushed hard towards the end of his eligibility (if he isn’t already elected)sometime in the 2040s. Obviously that is a long long time from now.
voters are going to need to reevaluate their assessment of post 2000 era QBs long before Stafford makes the ballot – Rivers and Ryan will be the test for top 10 stats with little other career accomplishments. SB helps his case but otherwise its the same debate voters will be having over Rivers and Ryan within the next five years.
Had to bring this thread up again with Stafford possibly leading the Rams back to the playoffs.
Another championship run would surely help his future chances for the Hall but we shall see. Kyren Williams and the rookie Nacua have helped the Rams offense become explosive but how far can their run continue? To win it all, they will have to beat the 49ers twice but if they could, sky is the limit.
Whacko For Flacco is a great story in Cleveland, and his strong arm gives them a punchers chance at going all the way but it would also help his own future HOVG, if not HOF case.
Its interesting but since 2013, when Russell Wilson–whose own HOF case could take a hit, if released by Denver–won a SB being drafted by Seattle, only two other QBs, Brady and Mahomes have won SBs with their original teams. Foles did it in 2017 for Philly but had to come back from other teams to do it. Could Flacco, Stafford, Goff or another QB from trade or free agency win it all this year? I dont believe Mahomes and the Chiefs will repeat …
He played extremely well tonight. Lions were just that much better. I hope he continues to play because it seems like he has at least another 2-4 left in the tank. Could press for 65k yards passing which I think gets him in Canton. I know as mentioned before ,it all depends how voters treat Matt Ryan,Phillips Rivers and Eli Manning. If Stafford lost the SB I don’t think we would have this discussion at all. Maybe as a Senior Nominee 40 years down the line haha. But we will see. Again ,I hope he returns under center. He has a solid team too. Maybe they get pieces and try to get deeper next year?
Good call Brad … the Rams had their chances but Stafford basically played with a concussion. No way he was coming out of that game which was exciting, while the other games were blowouts.
No doubt he is a tuff-sum-bitch but with his passing ability he might go in later down the line.