NFL Picks 2014: Week 1

OK, enough of the “assessing our depth” and “it’s not about winning” quotes that come with pre-season. It’s time for real football.

Rosters are nearly set. The pretenders are off into obscurity, looking for real jobs. And kickoff is just three days away.

We’ve been doing these picks for a few years now. Last year we actually did pretty well. There were four of us. Tony and I tied at 166-89-1 records for the season. Anthony Maggio went 157-98-1. Rich picked 154 correctly against 101 misses and the lone tie – we all matched up fairly well with a collection of experts whose picks are observed via NFLPickWatch.com. In 2011 I beat Tony with a 172-84 mark compared to his 169-87. And in 2012, I used a 27-5 run through the last two weeks of the regular season to go 166-89-1 again, compared to his 161-94-1.

This year Anthony, Tony and I are joined by John Vomhof Jr., who chipped in on a few of our fantasy football buy/sell posts. He’ll be ramping up as the season moves forward. Without further ado, here are our long-sought picks for week one:

Game of the Week: Indianapolis at Denver – I thought about going with the Packers/Seahawks game here. After all, Packers fans to this day have not stopped complaining about the Hail Mary Russell Wilson threw that was intercepted/incomplete-but-called-a-touchdown a couple years back while the league was using replacement referees. Reminder – you don’t have to let games come down to the final play.

Anyway, moving on from that, it’s my belief that the Broncos remain the class of the AFC, even though they got pounded by Seattle in the Super Bowl. One of the few teams in the conference with a chance to challenge that status is Indianapolis. Andrew Luck and Co. took Denver down last season in Indy. The Colts seem like a team built for the indoor track right now, but a big road win to start the 2014 campaign could go a long way toward changing that perception. I don’t think it happens, but I’ll keep a close eye on this game.

Game of the Weak: Washington at Houston – There aren’t a lot of real duds on the schedule this week. I can come up with storylines for almost every game that are intriguing enough to watch. This one is no exception – I’ll be watching RGIII, the health of Arian Foster, the beginning of Jadeveon Clowney’s career, how it looks like both teams are responding to their new coaching staffs, etc.

But what a difference a couple years make. Two years ago Griffin burst on the scene as a rookie and looked like he was going to own the league. Then he got hurt and now there are many saying Kirk Cousins should be the starter there. And just two years ago Houston was coming off of a playoff season and looking like a legit Super Bowl contender. After opening 2013 with two wins, the bottom fell out and the Texans ended up with the first pick in the draft. While there are compelling storylines, these teams both enter the season with people picking them to finish in or near last place.

For pointspread picks for the week, click here.