Bet the Mortgage: He Said/He Said Super Bowl Bets

Andy: Okay, while the Titans had their cute little run with Derrick Henry and Green Bay squeaked into the conference finals on the strength of … whatever it was that got that team there … we’ve finally arrived at what I think is a really intriguing Super Bowl match-up between San Francisco and Kansas City.

It’s the great pass rushing defense of the 49ers taking on the league’s best QB in Patrick Mahomes, who is even better when he’s on the run and his weapons have time to run around to get open.

Tony: It’s also the #2 ranked rushing team (in yards per game) of the 49ers aginst a defense that has had problems against the run this year. But the Chiefs will likely have Chris Jones back to 100%, and they’ve managed to beat the top ranked rushing team (Baltimore) during the regular season, and the #3 ranked rushing team (Tennessee) during the post season.

There’s also questions on coaching–one of the head coaches will likely do wonders for their postseason reputation…Andy Reid has a long history of choking in big games, dating back to his time with the Eagles–while 49ers head coach Kyle Shannahan’s best known Super Bowl moment is being the architect of a Falcons offense that couldn’t hold a 28-3 lead over the Patriots in Super Bowl LI.

Andy: I think Shanahan has learned from his Super Bowl foible, as shown by his willingness to win last week with Jimmy Garoppolo throwing just eight times. I’ve seen games where Reid was going up against the worst rush defenses in the league and he only runs the ball nine times. He just sometimes forgets that sometimes the easy answer is the right answer.

So, at any rate, what’s the tipping point in this game? Who scores first? Doesn’t seem to matter for Kansas City — they’ve had two straight multi-score comebacks that turned into healthy wins. Who makes the other team one-dimensional? Both teams have won quite handily this season while playing one-dimensionally. Run the ball and stop the run? Hmm. That one might actually put the Chiefs at a disadvantage. So, there’s that and the coaching … I’m starting to get a slight lean in one direction …

Tony: It’s an interesting match up as well because according to SBD’s odds for the Super Bowl the 49ers started the 2019 season at +4500 to be Super Bowl champions, while the Chiefs spent almost the whole year at around +700, other than when Mahomes was hurt. By then, the 49ers had jumped past them as more likely to win the Super Bowl–as spot they didn’t lose until the playoffs were locked in, at which point they were basically daed even. However, suddenly this week, the Chiefs are back to being favorites. I’ve got my lean for the game as well….

Andy: Ok, here goes. I think this is going to be a high-scoring game. The Chiefs are on fire and the 49ers aren’t too far behind. Kansas City’s defense has been better much of the last half of the season, though not as good as San Francisco’s. Ultimately, while I like Garoppolo and his future, I think this is going to come down to Mahomes being just a little bit more ready to put up a big game when it’s on the line. He’s going to save Andy Reid from Reid-ing himself. Chiefs win, something like 34-30.

Tony: I am actually more confident that Andy Reid can be Andy Reid this game, and that the 49ers defense is more likely to limit the Chiefs passing than the Chiefs are to stop the 49ers rushing. I agree that both teams will put up points, but I don’t see it hitting 60 total–I’m pegging the 49ers winning 31-24.

Andy: So … who knows who wins, but … pound the over.

	Playoff balance	Champ W/L	Champ $	Remaining bank
Andy	$11,141	2-0	+$6,848	$17,989
Tony	$12,821	1-1	+$2,045	$14,866

Our explanations are above, but our bets for the Super Bowl are:

Andy

$5,000 – Kansas City vs San Francisco: Over 54 (-110) – We’re pretty much done after this week, so might as well go big or go home. It’s mythical house money. Go points.

$3,000 – Kansas City (-1, -110) vs San Francisco – See above

Tony

$3,000 – San Francisco (+1.5, -105) vs Kansas City – See above

$3,000 – Kansas City vs San Francisco: Over 54 (-110) – I’ll play it a little more conservative, just in case.

Our stats after championship weekend: